Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important?

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are common tools for assessing the potential impact of climate change on species ranges. Uncertainty in SDM output occurs due to differences among alternate models, species characteristics and scenarios of future climate. While considerable effort is being devoted to identifying and quantifying the first two sources of variation, a greater understanding of climate scenarios and how they affect SDM output is also needed. Climate models are complex tools: variability occurs among alternate simulations, and no single ÔbestÕ model exists. The selection of climate scenarios for impacts assessments should not be undertaken arbitrarily -strengths and weakness of different climate models should be considered. In this paper, we provide bioclimatic modellers with an overview of emissions scenarios and climate models, discuss uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate and suggest steps that can be taken to reduce and communicate climate scenario-related uncertainty in assessments of future species responses to climate change.

Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters!

“…The magnitude of climate change scenarios for past and future periods differ among different circulation models and therefore it is a source of uncertainty that might affect the results of the applied models (Beaumont et al, 2008;Parra & Monahan, 2008). It is therefore normally of utmost importance to apply a range of climate models and scenarios in order to estimate the inherent variability introduced by the choice of climate.…”

Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity

“…Regional scale climate models, however, remain in the exploratory phase and only in some regions has downscaling of climatechange simulations to the regional level been achieved (Christensen et al 2007). Many climate models thus display substantial uncertainty in regional climatechange estimates, with uncertainties being much higher for precipitation than for temperature (Randall et al 2007 (Beaumont et al 2008), and quantifying variation in regional GCM projections thus remains crucial. Many additional unknowns remain in forecasting future patterns of biodiversity (Davis et al 1998;Pearson & Dawson 2003;Thomas et al 2004;Araú jo & Rahbek 2006).…”

Past, present, and future distribution of Afromontane rodents (Muridae: Otomys) reflect climate-change predicted biome changes

“…The A2 emission scenario was selected because there is strong evidence that alternative less "extreme" scenarios may no longer be relevant under current greenhouse gas emission rates (Beaumont et al 2008). All the environmental variables were resampled to a grid resolution of 10 arc min (roughly 15 × 15 km).…”