Trends in extreme daily temperature and rainfall have been analysed from 1961 to 1998 for Southeast Asia and the South Pacific. This 38-year period was chosen to optimize data availability across the region. Using high-quality data from 91 stations in 15 countries, significant increases were detected in the annual number of hot days and warm nights, with significant decreases in the annual number of cool days and cold nights. These trends in extreme temperatures showed considerable consistency across the region. Extreme rainfall trends were generally less spatially coherent than were those for extreme temperature. The number of rain days (with at least 2 mm of rain) has decreased significantly throughout Southeast Asia and the western and central South Pacific, but increased in the north of French Polynesia, in Fiji, and at some stations in Australia. The proportion of annual rainfall from extreme events has increased at a majority of stations. The frequency of extreme rainfall events has declined at most stations (but not significantly), although significant increases were detected in French Polynesia. Trends in the average intensity of the wettest rainfall events each year were generally weak and not significant.

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Riparian ecosystems in the 21 st Century are likely to play a critical role in determining the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change, and in influencing the capacity of these systems to adapt. Some authors have suggested that riparian ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their high levels of exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli, and their history of degradation. Others have highlighted the probable resilience of riparian ecosystems to climate change as a result of their evolution under high levels of climatic and environmental variability. We synthesize current knowledge of the vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to climate change by assessing the potential exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of their key components and processes, as well as ecosystem functions, goods and services, to projected global climatic changes. We review key pathways for ecological and human adaptation for the maintenance, restoration and enhancement of riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services and present emerging principles for planned adaptation. Our synthesis suggests that, in the absence of adaptation, riparian ecosystems are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, given the critical role of riparian ecosystem functions in landscapes, as well as the strong links between riparian ecosystems and human well-being, considerable means, motives and opportunities for strategically planned adaptation to climate change also exist. The need for planned adaptation of and for riparian ecosystems is likely to be strengthened as the importance of many riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services will grow under a changing climate. Consequently, riparian ecosystems are likely to become adaptation 'hotspots' as the century unfolds.

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.

Trends (1961Trends ( -2003 in daily maximum and minimum temperatures, extremes and variance were found to be spatially coherent across the Asia-Pacific region. The majority of stations exhibited significant trends: increases in mean maximum and mean minimum temperature, decreases in cold nights and cool days, and increases in warm nights. No station showed a significant increase in cold days or cold nights, but a few sites showed significant decreases in hot days and warm nights. Significant decreases were observed in both maximum and minimum temperature standard deviation in China, Korea and some stations in Japan (probably reflecting urbanization effects), but also for some Thailand and coastal Australian sites. The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) region between Fiji and the Solomon Islands showed a significant increase in maximum temperature variability.Correlations between mean temperature and the frequency of extreme temperatures were strongest in the tropical Pacific Ocean from French Polynesia to Papua New Guinea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and southern Japan. Correlations were weaker at continental or higher latitude locations, which may partly reflect urbanization.For non-urban stations, the dominant distribution change for both maximum and minimum temperature involved a change in the mean, impacting on one or both extremes, with no change in standard deviation. This occurred from French Polynesia to Papua New Guinea (except for maximum temperature changes near the SPCZ), in Malaysia, the Philippines, and several outlying Japanese islands. For urbanized stations the dominant change was a change in the mean and variance, impacting on one or both extremes. This result was particularly evident for minimum temperature.The results presented here, for non-urban tropical and maritime locations in the Asia-Pacific region, support the hypothesis that changes in mean temperature may be used to predict changes in extreme temperatures. At urbanized or higher latitude locations, changes in variance should be incorporated.