The article presents the results of a comprehensive statistical study of the spatial distribution of spring precipitation in Ukraine and its relationship with the main low-frequency oscillations of the Northern Hemisphere. The research focuses on the monthly amount of rainfalls in March, April and May at 40 long-range stations of Ukraine that are evenly distributed throughout its territory, and the indices of North Atlantic (NAO) and North Sea-Caspian (NCP) fluctuations over a 45-year period (1962-2006). The use of multiyear data allowed for objective clusterization and division of the Ukrainian territory into regions with different types of weather observed in the event of precipitation, with each of them being physically substantiated. To ensure clarity, the article presents regional statistical models in the form of schematic maps of probable relationships between distribution of spring precipitation in Ukraine and the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean macroprocesses. In order to forecast the monthly rainfall in March, it is advisable to take into account the state of the North Atlantic fluctuations. The response of this fluctuation was found within Chernivtsi, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kyiv Regions, northern part of Odesa Region, western districts of Chernihiv Region and southern part of Zhytomyr Region. In the western regions of Ukraine, as well as in Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Chernihiv Regions, the formation of precipitation in April depends on the state of both NAO and NCP; in the rest of Ukraine – only of NCP. The 90% probability linear statistical relationship between precipitation in May and the main climatic signals of the Northern Hemisphere under study was not found only in some northern regions of Ukraine, namely: Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy Regions and central (Poltava and northern part of Cherkasy Region) part of Ukraine. A study of the influence of North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean macroprocesses on the distribution of monthly rainfall in Ukraine, conducted using a statistical approach, shows its ambiguity during different spring months and within different regions of Ukraine, and requires further research to solve the general scientific problem – study of climate-conditioned natural resources required to ensure sustainable socio-economic development of Ukraine under conditions of global climate change.
During the last decade of the 20th and at the beginning of the 21st century there was a need for a higher level of understanding of the climate system and development of opportunities to prevent climate change and, first of all, understanding of dangerous natural hydrometeorological phenomena. The research of the latter is based on contemporary ideas of the theory of climate whose main concepts found their further development in the study of changes and fluctuations of the today's climate. For its climatic characteristics the South of Ukraine is considered as a separate region. This is due to not only the influence of the Black Sea but also to the specific features of the atmospheric circulation. Precipitation is one of the most important characteristics of humidification and appears to be the most variable meteorological value both in space and time. According to the results of modern studies the amount of precipitation within the territory of Ukraine and its individual regions was changing at the end of the 20th century and this change is still observed at the beginning of the 21st century. Therefore, the purpose of this scientific study is to determine the peculiarities of the spatio-temporal distribution of atmospheric precipitation in the territory of the Odesa Region over the recent decades. To complete this task we used statistical methods of processing the output information which included time data for 00, 06, 12 and 18 hours.
Based on peculiarities of the structure of the long-term course of atmospheric precipitation in the territory of the Odesa region the following five regions were defined: southern, northwest, northern, eastern and coastal. Using the integral Fourier transform we managed to determine probable periodic oscillations (quasi-two-month, quasi-three-month, half-year and quasi-ten-month ones).
This article presents the main results of one of the sections of the research work "Forecasting of dangerous meteorological phenomena over the southern regions of Ukraine" which is performed at the Department of Meteorology and Climatology of the Odessa State Environmental University.
Problem Statement and Purpose. Rational use of nature, solution of natural and environmental problems, planning and location of various sectors of the economy are based on climatological information. As empirical data accumulate, some values, as well as the probabilistic characteristics of climate-relatednatural resources, need constant refinement due to the fact that hydrometeorological phenomena are extremely variable in time and space. Of great practical interest is information on daily and maximum rainfall and therefore there is a need for their comprehensive analysis, study and forecasting.
Data & Methods. The initial information for estimating the precipitation regime is the term data for 00, 06, 12 and 18 hours at nine stations of Odessa region in the period 2010–2015, to which a number of general scientific and statistical methods were applied.
Results. Some indicators of the precipitation regime, which are widely used in scientific and practical developments, are analyzed. The total number of days with precipitation and their recurrence are determined. For the territory of the region it is 34.4%. The most days with precipitation were observed in January, and the least – in August, except for Art. Calm, at which the minimum number of days with precipitation was recorded in November. The frequency of precipitation of different gradations was studied and significant precipitations were analyzed: 10, 20, 30 mm and more per day. The region is dominated by precipitation up to 10.0 mm, the frequency of which ranges from 86% (station Rozdilna) to 91.4% (station Odessa). The maximum frequency of days with precipitation of 30 mm or more per day falls on the warm season (April-October). The fields of daily maximum of 1% and 5% probability are heterogeneous and at some stations of Odessa region the values of this indicator exceed the climatic norm (up to 10–12 mm), at others – less than the norm. The obtained results are a certain contribution to the study of both theoretical and practical aspects of the study of daily amounts and daily maximum precipitation, which are indicators of the regional climate. They can be used to make a climatological forecast, which is necessary for a more complete development of climatic resources of Odessa region.
Представлені результати аналізу та оцінки режиму атмосферних опадів у зимовий сезон для території України за даними місячної кількості опадів по 30-ти станціях України за період 1976-2005 рр. та їх зв'язок з Північно-Атлантичним (NAO) та Північн о-Морським Каспійським (NCP) коливаннями. Встановлено тісний лінійний кореляційний зв'язок між розподілом опадів по території України у зимовий сезон з основними телеконекціями Північної півкулі.Ключові слова: телеконекція, Північна півкуля, атмосферні опади, індикатори кліматичної мінливості.
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