Climate and geographical features of precipitation distribution on the territory of Ukraine in the autumn period

Goncharova, L. D.; Prokofiev, O. M.

doi:10.32846/2306-9716/2021.eco.2-35.16

Cited by 2 publications

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“…Дослідженням статистичної структури часових рядів середніх векторів узагальнених кластерів атмосферних опадів у різні сезони року присвячені публікації авторів Л. Д. Гончарової та О. М. Прокоф'єва [55,56]. Ними виконана кластеризація місячної кількості опадів у сезони року для всієї території України з карто-схемою цього районування, яка показала, що південні регіони України формують кластери, що відповідають закономірностям розподілу опадів над територією.…”

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Probabilistic-forecasting method for determination of low flow discharge of Pivdennyi Buh, Black Sea area, and Lower Dnieper rivers

Shakirzanova

Ovcharuk

Dokus

et al. 2022

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The aim of the study is to substantiate the probabilistic-forecasting method for forecasting the low flow discharge and its implementation for the Pivdennyi Buh, Black Sea area and Lower Dnieper rivers, taking into account climatic patterns of precipitation distribution and establishing probabilistic characteristics of low flow discharge in multi-year period. The study area is in a zone of significant risk due to the shortage of water resources, the formation of extremely low runoff in the dry flow period, which requires its definition and forecasting. The methodological basis of forecasts is to solve the equation in determining the components of the low flow of rivers by constructing regional dependences for forecasting the average decade summer-autumn low flow from previous water discharge (in runoff modules), establishing their probabilities water discharge for a number of intakes. Results. The paper substantiates the probabilistic-forecasting method for forecasting low flow discharge (in summer, autumn and winter periods) based on the construction of regional dependences of average decadal runoff modules on previous water discharge for groups of basins of studied rivers taking into account climatic dependences of precipitation distribution in the territory and the establishment of probabilistic characteristics of the low flow water discharge in a multi-year period. The methodology of territorial short-term forecasts of average decade water discharge of low flow of summer, autumn and winter river runoff is assessed as satisfactory with a margin of error of 70 % to 97 %, with a number of members of more than 500 points. To determine the cumulative probability of the forecast values of the average decade water discharge of the summer, autumn and winter dry weather flow, the empirical distribution of the average monthly water discharge in the limited seasons, which are generalized in the basins of the studied rivers of Ukraine, is established. Scientific novelty. For the first time for the zone of insufficient natural water content of rivers the method of territorial forecasts of low flow discharge, determination of their probability of occurrence in a multi-year period and cartographic representation of prognostic values have been developed and practically implemented. The practical importance is the use of forecast modules maps of low flow for spatial monitoring and assessment of low water levels on rivers in the whole region, including ungauged rivers, and their probabilistic characteristics – to assess the possible occurrence of low runoff, even when it reaches values close to the environmental runoff, which are critical for the functioning of the river ecosystem.

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Probabilistic-forecasting method for determination of low flow discharge of Pivdennyi Buh, Black Sea area, and Lower Dnieper rivers

Shakirzanova

Ovcharuk

Dokus

et al. 2022

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Features of climate and geographical distribution of atmospheric precipitations in the south of Ukraine

Goncharova

Prokofiev

Решетченко

2022

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Formulation of the problem. The concept of implementing state policy in the field of climate change until 2030, which aims to develop a national climate program and prevent the reduction of risks associated with them in different regions of Ukraine. The research was performed in accordance with the objectives formulated in the research works of Odessa State Ecological University on the following topics: «Regime of precipitation in the regions of Ukraine in the late XX and early XXI centuries» (№ SR 0111U000590); «Forecasting of dangerous meteorological phenomena over the southern regions of Ukraine» (№ SR 00115U006532); «Comprehensive method of probabilistic and prognostic modeling of extreme hydrological phenomena on the rivers of southern Ukraine to ensure sustainable water use in climate change» (№ SR 0121U010964). Problems of further research. The results presented in the article, of course, can not be considered exhaustive in terms of determining the impact of only two climatic signals that can form the spatial distribution of precipitation in southern Ukraine. The solution of the problems in the future will be directed to the consideration of other known teleconnections of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres with the involvement of additional equidistant empirical data. The purpose. This article aims to identify the features of the spatial distribution of precipitation in the winter season and determine the responses of climatic signals (North Atlantic and North Caspian fluctuations) in their fields in southern Ukraine (Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhia region and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea). Research methods. The implementation of an integrated statistical approach was carried out in three stages with the involvement of methods of multidimensional statistical and cartographic analysis and methods of research of non-stationary random processes. The subject of the study is the series of monthly precipitation for December, January, February at 40 stations in Ukraine and time series of average values of climatic indices of large-scale interaction in the field of pressure - North Atlantic (NAO) and North Caspian (NCP) fluctuations for each month of the period 1962-2006. Presentation of the main research material. Objective clustering of the territory of Ukraine has been carried out on the basis of long-term empirical data on precipitation. In the south, 2 generalized clusters have been identified, each of which is statistically sound and characterized by a time series of the mean vector. The statistical structure of these series is analyzed, which allowed to predict future trends in the studied fields until 2025-2030 in the territory of Southern Ukraine. Studies of the impact of North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean macro-processes on the spatial distribution of the monthly amount of precipitation in the winter season show the complexity and ambiguity of these relationships in different months of the season and in different regions of southern Ukraine. Practical value. The obtained statistical models in the form of maps-schemes will take into account the directions of transfer of basic substances, which in turn will help (in compiling the climate forecast of precipitation) to understand the contribution of different regions of the Northern Hemisphere to the formation of the main climatic indicator. Research results. In the south of Ukraine in December and February the monthly rainfall by 2025-2030 will decrease compared to the beginning of the XXI century. In January, only in the Zaporozhye region is expected to fall rainfall in the next 20-30 years. For the rest of the southern regions of Ukraine in January the amount of precipitation will be within long-term values (15-45 mm). The presence of a linear correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the spatial distribution of precipitation in December was determined (with a probability of 90%); in February, the combined effects of the North Sea-Caspian and North Atlantic oscillations. In January, in the south of Ukraine, with some probability, it was not possible to establish responses in the distribution of precipitation with the climatic signals under consideration.

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Climate and geographical features of precipitation distribution on the territory of Ukraine in the autumn period

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Probabilistic-forecasting method for determination of low flow discharge of Pivdennyi Buh, Black Sea area, and Lower Dnieper rivers

Probabilistic-forecasting method for determination of low flow discharge of Pivdennyi Buh, Black Sea area, and Lower Dnieper rivers

Features of climate and geographical distribution of atmospheric precipitations in the south of Ukraine

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