The article presents the results of a comprehensive statistical study of the spatial distribution of spring precipitation in Ukraine and its relationship with the main low-frequency oscillations of the Northern Hemisphere. The research focuses on the monthly amount of rainfalls in March, April and May at 40 long-range stations of Ukraine that are evenly distributed throughout its territory, and the indices of North Atlantic (NAO) and North Sea-Caspian (NCP) fluctuations over a 45-year period (1962-2006). The use of multiyear data allowed for objective clusterization and division of the Ukrainian territory into regions with different types of weather observed in the event of precipitation, with each of them being physically substantiated. To ensure clarity, the article presents regional statistical models in the form of schematic maps of probable relationships between distribution of spring precipitation in Ukraine and the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean macroprocesses. In order to forecast the monthly rainfall in March, it is advisable to take into account the state of the North Atlantic fluctuations. The response of this fluctuation was found within Chernivtsi, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kyiv Regions, northern part of Odesa Region, western districts of Chernihiv Region and southern part of Zhytomyr Region. In the western regions of Ukraine, as well as in Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Chernihiv Regions, the formation of precipitation in April depends on the state of both NAO and NCP; in the rest of Ukraine – only of NCP. The 90% probability linear statistical relationship between precipitation in May and the main climatic signals of the Northern Hemisphere under study was not found only in some northern regions of Ukraine, namely: Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy Regions and central (Poltava and northern part of Cherkasy Region) part of Ukraine. A study of the influence of North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean macroprocesses on the distribution of monthly rainfall in Ukraine, conducted using a statistical approach, shows its ambiguity during different spring months and within different regions of Ukraine, and requires further research to solve the general scientific problem – study of climate-conditioned natural resources required to ensure sustainable socio-economic development of Ukraine under conditions of global climate change.
Formulation of the problem. Today, in changing climate conditions, it is very relevant to study the impact of regional climate change on the regime of hydrological indicators and ecological status of the Siversky Donets river basin within Kharkiv region. Analysis of recent research and publications. Hydrometeorological studies are complex and large-scale. In the late 20th - early 21st centuries, a number of articles studied annual runoff of the rivers of Ukraine under the influence of atmospheric processes. Present-day changes in temperature and humidity of the territory affect the hydrological conditions of the rivers. The aim of the work is to assess the relationship between climatic and hydrological indicators (environmental dynamics) of the Siversky Donets basin against the background of regional climate change. In these conditions, monitoring of climate, hydrological and environmental indicators, allows us to make further management decisions on water resources management. Research methods are presented by statistical and cartographic analysis. The source data are a number of climatological, hydrological and environmental observations within the state network of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center of the SES of Ukraine. Problems of further research. Modern changes in climatic conditions in Ukraine are characterized by locality and rapidity. Considering the volume of water use from the river Siversky Donets, the question arises about the water supply of the region, optimization of its use and further rational management. Presentation of the main research material. The dates of the ice cover have changed in recent years, and often ice phenomena may not occur at all. We can see significant warming in winter on the example of January air temperatures. Summer temperatures are growing the fastest (by 0.37°C every 10 years), autumn temperatures are in the second place in terms of growth rate. which means that stable ice cover on most rivers of the Donets basin has been absent in recent decades, which clearly indicates a warming trend. Practical value. Based on the main provisions of the national environmental policy of Ukraine on the use of water resources the study of changes in hydrological regime of rivers is of practical importance for sustainable management. Calculation of the IWP has revealed that most rivers belong to the third and fourth categories - "moderately polluted" and "polluted", but there are also absolutely catastrophic cases. Research results. Heavy economic burden on the waterway will increase its over-regulation. In future, comprehensive assessment of climate change impact on the hydrological conditions of the rivers will determine the degree of change in the ecological state of the waterways, their rational use and protect.
Formulation of the problem. The concept of implementing state policy in the field of climate change until 2030, which aims to develop a national climate program and prevent the reduction of risks associated with them in different regions of Ukraine. The research was performed in accordance with the objectives formulated in the research works of Odessa State Ecological University on the following topics: «Regime of precipitation in the regions of Ukraine in the late XX and early XXI centuries» (№ SR 0111U000590); «Forecasting of dangerous meteorological phenomena over the southern regions of Ukraine» (№ SR 00115U006532); «Comprehensive method of probabilistic and prognostic modeling of extreme hydrological phenomena on the rivers of southern Ukraine to ensure sustainable water use in climate change» (№ SR 0121U010964). Problems of further research. The results presented in the article, of course, can not be considered exhaustive in terms of determining the impact of only two climatic signals that can form the spatial distribution of precipitation in southern Ukraine. The solution of the problems in the future will be directed to the consideration of other known teleconnections of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres with the involvement of additional equidistant empirical data. The purpose. This article aims to identify the features of the spatial distribution of precipitation in the winter season and determine the responses of climatic signals (North Atlantic and North Caspian fluctuations) in their fields in southern Ukraine (Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhia region and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea). Research methods. The implementation of an integrated statistical approach was carried out in three stages with the involvement of methods of multidimensional statistical and cartographic analysis and methods of research of non-stationary random processes. The subject of the study is the series of monthly precipitation for December, January, February at 40 stations in Ukraine and time series of average values of climatic indices of large-scale interaction in the field of pressure - North Atlantic (NAO) and North Caspian (NCP) fluctuations for each month of the period 1962-2006. Presentation of the main research material. Objective clustering of the territory of Ukraine has been carried out on the basis of long-term empirical data on precipitation. In the south, 2 generalized clusters have been identified, each of which is statistically sound and characterized by a time series of the mean vector. The statistical structure of these series is analyzed, which allowed to predict future trends in the studied fields until 2025-2030 in the territory of Southern Ukraine. Studies of the impact of North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean macro-processes on the spatial distribution of the monthly amount of precipitation in the winter season show the complexity and ambiguity of these relationships in different months of the season and in different regions of southern Ukraine. Practical value. The obtained statistical models in the form of maps-schemes will take into account the directions of transfer of basic substances, which in turn will help (in compiling the climate forecast of precipitation) to understand the contribution of different regions of the Northern Hemisphere to the formation of the main climatic indicator. Research results. In the south of Ukraine in December and February the monthly rainfall by 2025-2030 will decrease compared to the beginning of the XXI century. In January, only in the Zaporozhye region is expected to fall rainfall in the next 20-30 years. For the rest of the southern regions of Ukraine in January the amount of precipitation will be within long-term values (15-45 mm). The presence of a linear correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the spatial distribution of precipitation in December was determined (with a probability of 90%); in February, the combined effects of the North Sea-Caspian and North Atlantic oscillations. In January, in the south of Ukraine, with some probability, it was not possible to establish responses in the distribution of precipitation with the climatic signals under consideration.
Об'єктом дослідження є агрокліматичні ресурси на території України, що характеризуються сукупністю агрокліматичних факторів, які діють на умови росту та розвитку рослин та формують урожайність сільськогосподарських культур. Ці фактори мають кількісне значення та визначаються агрокліматичними показниками, що вказують на взаємозв'язок між факторами клімату та умовами росту, розвитку рослин, формування врожаю. Одним з найбільш проблемних місць оцінки клімату для сільськогосподарського виробництва є процеси теплообміну та вологообміну в системі ґрунт-рослина-атмосфера, де відбуваються біофізичні та фізіологічні процеси. Крім того, треба враховувати вимоги рослин до навколишнього середовища: мінімальні та критичні температури повітря, ґрунту; суми температур, які необхідні для визрівання сільськогосподарських культур; кількість вологи. В ході дослідження використовувалися моделі для прогнозування потенційних впливів змін клімату на продуктивність сільського господарства та вивчення варіантів адаптації до цих змін. Оцінка агрокліматичних ресурсів території проводилася за показниками теплозабезпеченості, де розраховувалися суми активних та ефективних температур. Для оцінки екологічного стану агрокліматичних ресурсів використовувався показник стійкості кліматичних умов. На основі цього очікується збільшення тривалості вегетаційного періоду сільськогосподарських культур за рахунок збільшення його теплозабезпеченості. На прикладі Харківської області надалі визначалися основні риси сучасного температурно-вологісного режиму. Встановлено, що найбільше зростання температури повітря зафіксовано з середини 70-х років минулого століття. Встановлено, що в річному ході температура повітря буде підвищуватися з середнім коефіцієнтом лінійного тренду 0,3-0,4 °С на 10 років. Амплітуди коливань температури повітря досить суттєві, що дестабілізує кліматичні умови на півночі. Південна та південно-західна частина регіону мають вищий показник стійкості погодних умов за рахунок усталеного температурного режиму повітря та характеру підстильної поверхні. Завдяки цьому забезпечується можливість отримання заходів, щодо адаптації сільського господарства до сучасних змін агрокліматичних ресурсів. Запропоновані заходи адаптації сільського господарства до сучасних кліматичних змін можуть бути успішно застосовані й у країнах-сусідах, зокрема Молдові, Білорусі. Ключові слова: агрокліматичні ресурси, гідротермічний показник, біокліматичний потенціал, адаптація до змін клімату.
Formulation of the problem. Functioning of natural geosystems is aimed at preserving their structure, but economic activity leads to imbalances, decreases in order, loss of internal organization and the inability to maintain the necessary stabilization. Analysis of previous research. Studies of the last decades have shown that the climatic conditions of Ukraine can be unfavorable for the life and economic activity of the society. Problems of further research. To find the solution to the problem of preserving the ability of the biosphere to self-regulation, self-restoration by optimizing anthropogenic load on natural systems is very important. Identification of climate change factors is aimed at finding the most active sources of environmental impact in order to determine the real threat of global climate change. The purpose of the research is to determine the causes, areas of initial formation, further development of negative meteorological processes and phenomena on the territory of Kharkiv region during the last decades and to study parameters and causes of air masses transformation, changes in their properties and various resistance to anthropogenic impact. Research methods are observation with the help of various devices and technical means. An integrated approach using field-based observations and technology of climatic series analysis with the help of statistical methods for climate information processing, characterized by high accuracy, allow us to determine their spatial-temporal features and future projections to the natural environment. Presentation of the main research material. Optimal strategic socio-economic development of the regions requires identification of specific links between natural and socio-economic entities, as well as studying large-scale and profound by the consequences violations of the ecosystem at the planetary level - the biosphere and its components. There is a general tendency towards directed climate change, the so-called "global warming", which threatens natural landscapes, upsetting and destroying them. Practical value. There are causal relationships between climatogenic changes, influence of human activity and the reaction of landscapes to them. This is manifested in creation of a variety of transformed landscapes (agrarian, residential, industrial). The consequence of anthropogenic transformations is the change in the parameters and characteristics of the components of nature. Research results. Indicators are the basis for information blocks concerning decision-making in the areas of socio-economic development. Climate parameters of a certain territory may differ from zonal ones and in combination with anthropogenic transformation affect the general condition of the landscapes, lead to the intensification of adverse hydrometeorological and exogenous geodynamic processes and phenomena (erosion, deluvial processes, landslides, suffusion, deflation, flooding.
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