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Abstract. Two distinct routes from Europe to South-East Asia via the seas of the Arctic Ocean are considered in the work: the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage. Potential opportunities for the Arctic transport space under the conditions of melting polar ice and expanding navigation period on the Arctic Ocean are substantially increasing. Some alternatives to the NSR and Northwest Passage are described: a) by sea -this is the transport artery going along the Suez Canal; b) by land -these are the transport arteries including the Trans-Siberian Railway (Trans-Sib). The research is aimed at creating a model of the international transport corridor. The model is based on the autoregressive distributed lags (ADL) model. Separate models are constructed for the Northern Corridor, the Trans-Siberian railway, the transport corridor of the Suez Canal and the Northwest Passage. Factors influencing the endogenous variable of the model, consisting in the volume of goods transported for all corridors, are analysed. The exogenous variables were selected separately for each model. The time series covers the 1990-2013 period. The major steps of the implementation of the ADL-model are described: testing the endogenous and exogenous variables for auto-correlation; checking for stationarity of the time series; regression analysis. Finally, conclusions pertaining to the comparison of the NSR with other transport corridors are drawn.

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The article presents a comparative analysis of the sustainable development of eight circumpolar countries: Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia, the USA, Canada, Denmark, and Iceland. Sustainability is understood as the interdependent development of five spheres of human activity: economic, industrial, social, demographic, innovative-technological, and ecological. Each sphere is assessed in terms of endogenous variables that are influenced by exogenous factors. The demographic sphere is evaluated by population; the social – by the human development index (HDI); economic-industrial – GDP per capita (PPP); environmental – extent of exposure of the population to particulate matter in the atmosphere having a diameter of 2.5 μm; innovative-technological – by high-tech exports. The novelty lies in the analysis of the sustainable development of the respective countries using ADL-modelling. Five interdependent econometric equations are presented along with a method for calculating coefficients. The concept of economic, social and environmental sustainability coefficients is introduced. Each country’s sustainability index was calculated as the geometric mean index of economic, social and environmental sustainability. The results of a comparison of the circumpolar countries according to the sustainable development index are presented. The model can predict the development of each sphere of the respective country’s life-sustaining functions and determine the predicted values of the country’s sustainable development index, as well as to compare the development of countries on sustainable development and environmental safety.

The paper analyzes the potential of the Northern Sea Route as the international transport corridor. The Northern Sea Route is the shortest waterway between Northern Europe and Southeast Asia. The role of maritime transportation in international trade has been analyzed. The dynamics of changes in the global volume of service export involving maritime transportation demonstrates a positive trend. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of international transport corridors and requirements of participants of international goods distribution applicable to them, the necessary terms and conditions that the international transport corridor must comply with have been formulated. They include: a long-distance international transportation line; types of transport that meet the requirements of international standards; availability of technical means of transport, information, and maintenance service, international legal instruments of transportation. The conclusion on the potential compliance of the Northern Sea Route with the requirements of the international transport corridor is based on the following: The Northern Sea Route meets the requirements of a long-distance transportation line; it is connected with railway transport systems and this connection is being developed; an icebreaking fleet and port infrastructure are being developed; technical means to ensure security are being created and modernized…

This article examines the modeling of international transport corridors using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The modeling of international transport corridors makes allowance for the potential capacity to develop the Arctic transport environment in the context of polar ice melting and increasing time of navigation on the seas of the Arctic Ocean. The authors build models for the Northern Sea Route, the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR), the Southern Sea Route (transport corridor of the Suez Canal), the Northwest Passage, and analyze the natural, organizational, technological, and economic factors that affect the endogenous variable of the international transport corridor model. When building the transport corridor models, the authors take the volume of transit traffic via the international corridor in time t as the endogenous variable for all corridors. Exogenous variables are selected according to the variables that have the highest impact on the volume of traffic via each transport corridor and feature most prominently in the literature reviewed in this article. For the Northern Sea Route, these variables include Russia’s GDP, the number of ships passing through the route, the number of nuclear icebreakers, the average tariff, and the minimum ice coverage in the Arctic. For the Southern Sea Route (transport corridor of the Suez Canal) – EU’s GDP, the number of ships passing through the route, the average tariff, and the volume of commercial transit cargo. The methodology for determining the parameters of the model includes the following procedures: flux balance analysis, analysis of the autocorrelation between endogenous and exogenous variables, multicollinearity analysis.