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In this paper we present the first results of a study that aims to better understand and model the size and development of population in the Dutch Roman limes zone, as part of a larger research project investigating the development of the cultural landscape in the area. Earlier estimates of population size have only used general assumptions based on settlement density and supposed Roman army recruitment requirements and have not considered in any detail the factors influencing population growth and decline. This paper first presents the existing evidence for estimating population size in the area and then discusses the evidence for mortality and fertility estimates in the Roman period, necessary to better understand the large-scale demographic processes involved. From this evidence, new estimates for population size in the Early and Middle Roman period are calculated, using agent-based modelling to better understand the dynamics of population growth and the effects of recruitment of soldiers by the Roman army. It is concluded that earlier calculations underestimated the potential for population growth as well as the effect of forced recruitment on demography.

The Dutch Roman limes zone has a rich history of archaeological and historical research. In this paper, we present an overview of the current state of knowledge as an introduction to other chapters in this volume dealing with the area's demography, economy and transport system (Chaps. 2, 3, 7, 9 and 12). The main historical developments are sketched against the background of ongoing archaeological research in the area, and the main hypotheses concerning the development of settlement and the rural economy are discussed.

This study forms part of a larger project analysing the development of the cultural landscape in the Dutch Roman limes region, including the development of the rural economy. The primary research aim in this study is to investigate changes in pastoral production as a result of differing population dynamics of sheep and cattle herds subjected to different animal husbandry practices. Differences between such practices have not been considered in previous models of pastoral production in the region where herds have been treated as static entities. In this study we simulated different animal husbandry strategies based on trends and developments inferred from the faunal record in a well-documented area of the limes zone. The results of these simulations were analysed for differences in population viability, as well as relative differences in production of meat, wool and manure, and relative requirements for pastureland requirements and labour. Our analysis shows that cattle and sheep herds exploited for products supplied by the animals whilst living (manure and traction from cattle, wool from sheep) exhibit higher growth rates than herds exploited for meat. In addition, they are able to supply larger quantities of calories. However these herds have higher requirements for labour and land, presenting a possibly limiting factor. We conclude that, in addition to complementing intensification and extensification of arable farming observed in the region, agriculturalists would have benefitted from herds with higher growth rates, particularly given their risk-aversion behavior during periods of economic uncertainty. These simulations will be subsequently used to produce more nuanced scenarios of pastoral production within agent-based modelling of the mixed rural economy in the Dutch Roman limes zone.

This chapter presents an agent-based model developed to investigate the impact on land and labour costs of different agricultural strategies that could have been undertaken in the Early and Middle Roman periods (12 BCE to 270 CE) in the Lower Rhine delta. A short description of the sub-processes in ROMFARMS to simulate settlement population dynamics, arable farming, animal husbandry and wood acquisition is provided. The results show that settlements in the Dutch limes zone during the Roman period were mostly limited by the relatively small labour pool available. Whilst not prevented outright by the availability of labour, the results show that only a small proportion of the total quantity of grain demanded by to military settlements, towns and vici can be supplied by local settlements. Two different possible scales of supply were envisaged with the results indicating that a macroregional supply network was more feasible in which all settlements in the Lower Rhine delta were involved in the supply of consumer-only settlements. Whilst several methodological issues were noted, ROMFARMS is presented as an innovative tool for Dutch Roman archaeology with good potential for further development.

Current advances in spatial simulation bring unprecedented possibilities for spatio-temporal modeling. In this paper, we focus on modeling the impact of settlement on land use in the Roman period in the Dutch river area, on the northern frontier of the Roman Empire. During this period, the area witnessed a strong population increase that put more demands on the available land to produce food, not only for the local population, but also for the soldiers stationed on the frontier and the citizens of the newly founded towns. We compare an agent-based model (ABM) of agricultural production in the region (ROMFARMS), and a model using the Past Land Use Scanner (PLUS. Both were used to estimate the effects of increased agricultural demand through simulations of food production, taking into account the available workforce and the productivity and availability of suitable land. However, how should we evaluate the model outcomes? What are the advantages and limitations of each? We discuss issues of scale, temporal resolution and model inputs, together with questions of technical implementation and validation. In this way, we aim to point the way to future researchers to implement these approaches effectively in other contexts.

The voluntary addition of micronutrients to foods represents one strategy to alleviate suboptimal micronutrient intake at a population level (1) . The discretionary nature of such additions by food manufacturers highlights the importance of monitoring the efficacy and safety of such practices on an on-going basis. The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of voluntary food fortification on reducing the prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake in a representative sample of older adults in Ireland (≥65 years), using data from the National Adult Nutrition Survey (NANS) (2008)(2009)(2010). The NANS used a 4-day semi-weighed food and beverage record to estimate habitual food and nutrient intake. Food intake data were collected at brand level, allowing for the identification of fortified foods (FFs) by the presence of micronutrients in the ingredient list. The prevalence of inadequate intake of selected micronutrients in consumers of FFs(n 176) was assessed using estimated average requirements (2,3) and compared with corresponding values which would result if foods had not been fortified. McNemar's test was used to assess significant changes in the prevalence of inadequate intake. Under-reporters (URs), defined by using minimum energy intake cut-off points 5 calculated as multiples of BMR (Tanita, Japan) were excluded from the analysis.FFs (n 66, 5.2% of foods recorded) were consumed by over three-quarters of older adults (77-78%) and contributed 8.9% and 10.8% to mean daily energy intake in men and women respectively. The main FFs consumed by this population group were ready-to-eat breakfast cereals, bread & rolls, fat spreads and reduced-fat milks, which contributed 2.9%, 2.2%, 2.0% and 1.3% to mean daily energy intake respectively.Our study found that the addition of nutrients to foods had a significant impact in reducing the prevalence of inadequate intake of folate, iron and vitamin D < 5 μg/d in women aged 65 years and over. No significant reduction was observed in men. Fortification had no significant impact on reducing the prevalence of inadequate magnesium, zinc and vitamin C. In conclusion, current voluntary fortification practices are effective in improving intakes and adequacy for some, but not all micronutrients in this population group.