Modelling the Dynamics of Demography in the Dutch Roman Limes Zone

Abstract

In this paper we present the first results of a study that aims to better understand and model the size and development of population in the Dutch Roman limes zone, as part of a larger research project investigating the development of the cultural landscape in the area. Earlier estimates of population size have only used general assumptions based on settlement density and supposed Roman army recruitment requirements and have not considered in any detail the factors influencing population growth and decline. This paper first presents the existing evidence for estimating population size in the area and then discusses the evidence for mortality and fertility estimates in the Roman period, necessary to better understand the large-scale demographic processes involved. From this evidence, new estimates for population size in the Early and Middle Roman period are calculated, using agent-based modelling to better understand the dynamics of population growth and the effects of recruitment of soldiers by the Roman army. It is concluded that earlier calculations underestimated the potential for population growth as well as the effect of forced recruitment on demography.

Exploring Roman and early-medieval habitation of the Rhine–Meuse delta: modelling large-scale demographic changes and corresponding land-use impact

“…Demographic reconstructions pertaining to the Rhine-Meuse delta have mainly focused on (parts of) the early-Roman and middle-Roman periods (12 BC-AD 270). In older studies by Bloemers (1978) and Willems (1986) and more recent studies by Vossen (2003), Vos (2009) and Verhagen et al (2016a), Roman population estimates for the Dutch limes zone are Netherlands Journal of Geosciences -Geologie en Mijnbouw Fig. 1.…”

Modelling Agricultural Strategies in the Dutch Roman Limes via Agent-Based Modelling (ROMFARMS)

“…Marriage rules, for example, are simplified with few rules (c.f. Verhagen et al 2016a). ROMFARMS assumes patrilocal marriage and the relocation of orphans and other dependents to the nearest settlement.…”

“…Again, these assumptions are based on currently available domain knowledge which are subject to change and, hopefully, improvement. Further research could analyse the effect of recruitment of the local population into the Roman army which could have had a significant impact on the availability of labour and the marriage pool (see Van Dinter et al 2014;Verhagen et al 2016a). The use of life tables and fertility estimates provide usable approximations of mortality and birth rates in the past but should be treated with caution (Woods 2007).…”

“…Whether rural agrarian settlements in the Dutch Roman limes zone were capable of supplying castella, castra, vici and towns that developed from the Early Roman period (12 BCE onwards) has been the subject of significant debate within Dutch archaeology. Initial assessments of the agricultural economy of the Lower Rhine delta before and during the Roman period cited literary sources, the limitations of the natural landscape and the local spectra of cereals cultivated locally as evidence against local supply of grain or animal products (Van Es 1981;Bloemers 1983;Willems 1986;Whittaker 2004). In contrast, archaeobotanical, zooarchaeological and other archaeological evidence points to the strong likelihood of at least partial supply by native agrarian settlements in the Lower Rhine region (see Kooistra et al 2013, 5-7).…”

Current Trends in Roman Demography and Empirical Approaches to the Dynamics of the Limes Populations

“…A remarkable instrument of acculturation but also an ideal environment for the propagation of new contagious diseases, the limes doubtless exhibited very specific demographic structures and behaviours which evolved in response to the levels of security or insecurity experienced by its populations. It is difficult to model demographic behaviours in a region such as this, as Verhagen et al (2016) can confirm. The "migration" parameter is of key importance, yet difficult to quantify or predict.…”