Archaeological predictive modeling has been used successfully for over 20 years as a decision-making tool in cultural resources management. Its appreciation in academic circles however has been mixed because of its perceived theoretical poverty. In this paper, we discuss the issue of integrating current archaeological theoretical approaches and predictive modeling. We suggest a methodology for doing so based on cognitive archaeology, middle range theory, and paleoeconomic modeling. We also discuss the problems associated with testing predictive models.

In 2006 Leiden University has initiated a series Leiden Dissertations at Leiden University Press. This series affords an opportunity to those who have recently obtained their doctorate to publish the results of their doctoral research so as to ensure a wide distribution among colleagues and the interested public. The dissertations will become available both in printed and in digital versions. Books from this LUP series can be ordered through www.lup.nl. The large majority of Leiden dissertations from 2005 onwards is available digitally on www.dissertation.leidenuniv.nl.In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing predictive models using both old and new archaeological data. Furthermore, an attempt is made to reconcile the worlds of expert judgment and quantitative analysis by means of multicriteria decision making techniques and Bayesian statistics. The thesis also offers some alternative approaches to predictive modelling, like using prehistoric land use reconstructions, and the integrating of social and cultural factors into the models. It also gives an up to date review of the international and Dutch state of affairs in archaeological predictive modeling. Philip Verhagen graduated in Physical Geography at the Vrije Universteit Amsterdam in 1989. Since 1992, he has worked at RAAP Archeologisch Adviesbureau as a specialist in Geographical Information Systems, and has specialized in archaeological predictive modelling and the application of statistics in archaeological prospection. As such, he has worked on various archaeological projects in and outside the Netherlands, doing geographical analysis and quantitative research. Since October 2005, he is employed at the Hendrik Brunsting Stichting of the Archeologisch Centrum of the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam as a specialist in archaeological computing.

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This chapter presents and discusses current approaches and trends in computer-based modelling of pathways and movement networks in archaeology. After an introduction to the theoretical concepts involved, we present a state of the art of methodologies applied for reconstructing pathways and movement in ancient landscapes and discuss the various difficulties in using these methods as well as the most important technical hurdles involved. The problems of integrating optimal pathfinding algorithms with 'softer' socio-cultural variables are highlighted, as well as the limitations of modelling connections between places using least-cost path techniques. Network analysis reconstruction and analysis approaches are then reviewed as tools to better understand the overall structure of movement and communication in ancient landscapes. It is concluded that, while the potential of current approaches for understanding ancient movement is considerable, improvement is still needed in three main areas: the integration of approaches, sensitivity analysis and validation, and the theoretical underpinning of models of ancient movement.

GIS has become an indispensable tool for archaeologists to organize, explore and analyse spatial data. In this introductory chapter, an historical overview of the development of GIS use in archaeology is given. It focuses on three major fields of application: site location analysis, modelling movement and transport and visibility analysis. This state of the art is illustrated by discussing three different case studies. Finally, some thoughts on the future of GIS in archaeology are presented. Keywords GIS • Archaeological theory • Site location analysis • Least-cost paths • Viewsheds IntroductionIt is now over 30 years ago that the term GIS was introduced in archaeology (Hasenstab 1983), and it is hard to imagine how archaeologists have ever done research without it. GIS and spatial analysis are now seen by most archaeologists as essential tools to explore, analyse and interpret spatial data and have become standard ingredients in many archaeological research projects. GIS and spatial analysis are extremely convenient techniques for more efficiently carrying out 'traditional' archaeological research. However, there are also those who maintain that the 'spatial turn', boosted by GIS technology, points the way to applying fundamentally different theoretical perspectives in archaeology.In this chapter, I will give a condensed overview of the current state of GIS use in archaeology and attempt to sketch the current role of GIS and spatial analysis for archaeological interpretation and show its potential for changing theoretical perspectives and research traditions, drawing on examples from recent research. And lastly, I will try to look into the crystal ball and set a tentative agenda for future research.