Archaeological predictive modeling has been used successfully for over 20 years as a decision-making tool in cultural resources management. Its appreciation in academic circles however has been mixed because of its perceived theoretical poverty. In this paper, we discuss the issue of integrating current archaeological theoretical approaches and predictive modeling. We suggest a methodology for doing so based on cognitive archaeology, middle range theory, and paleoeconomic modeling. We also discuss the problems associated with testing predictive models.

Advances in digital spatial analysis and 3D photorealistic modeling offer the potential to create virtual interpretations of the now inundated landscapes of NW Australia. While this provides a useful template for potential late Pleistocene and early Holocene coastal occupation on the shelf, we stress the importance of understanding sediment dynamics as a primary control for terrain modelling, particularly at the scale of human ecosystem dynamics. We briefly review six major drivers of change upon tropical and semi‐tropical continental shelves and coastlines, and some of the typical coastal geomorphologies associated with each. We then hypothesize how these drivers might have varied on the NW Shelf of Australia since 65 ka, and then apply the logic to the Barrow Island region, to form some “end‐member” visualizations of coastal change in the early Holocene. The visualizations indicate a high degree of variability in coastal morphology, particularly through the post‐glacial period, which is likely to have radically changed the capacity of the coastline to provide resources for human use during that period. Hence, rather than considering any single visualization as being absolute, end‐member visualizations should be used to generate testable hypotheses that are reviewed repeatedly in the light of new physical, environmental, and archaeological information.

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