Simulating the Farm: Computational Modelling of Cattle and Sheep Herd Dynamics for the Analysis of Past Animal Husbandry Practices

Abstract

This study forms part of a larger project analysing the development of the cultural landscape in the Dutch Roman limes region, including the development of the rural economy. The primary research aim in this study is to investigate changes in pastoral production as a result of differing population dynamics of sheep and cattle herds subjected to different animal husbandry practices. Differences between such practices have not been considered in previous models of pastoral production in the region where herds have been treated as static entities. In this study we simulated different animal husbandry strategies based on trends and developments inferred from the faunal record in a well-documented area of the limes zone. The results of these simulations were analysed for differences in population viability, as well as relative differences in production of meat, wool and manure, and relative requirements for pastureland requirements and labour. Our analysis shows that cattle and sheep herds exploited for products supplied by the animals whilst living (manure and traction from cattle, wool from sheep) exhibit higher growth rates than herds exploited for meat. In addition, they are able to supply larger quantities of calories. However these herds have higher requirements for labour and land, presenting a possibly limiting factor. We conclude that, in addition to complementing intensification and extensification of arable farming observed in the region, agriculturalists would have benefitted from herds with higher growth rates, particularly given their risk-aversion behavior during periods of economic uncertainty. These simulations will be subsequently used to produce more nuanced scenarios of pastoral production within agent-based modelling of the mixed rural economy in the Dutch Roman limes zone.

Causal Networks and Complex Systems in Archaeology

“…We have adapted this global model to calculate some parameters such as the weather components or soil components. Parameters of animal husbandry productivity can be adapted from global models like GrassGro (Joyce & Verhagen, 2016). This computer program works with model libraries that include soil effects on pasture growth and erosion as a response to grading.…”

Revealing the past through modelling? Reflections on connectivity, habitation and persistence in the Dutch Delta during the 1st millennium AD

“…Recently, simulation modelling has been frequently used for this purpose (e.g. Lake, 2014;Joyce & Verhagen, 2016). However, it is commonly recognised that the main weakness of these simulation models is the underrepresentation of naturallandscape dynamics and social complexity (e.g.…”

Modelling Agricultural Strategies in the Dutch Roman Limes via Agent-Based Modelling (ROMFARMS)

“…Slaughter rates are expressed as the probability of an individual animal dying. They were developed from an earlier study of animal husbandry for the "Finding the limits of the limes" project (Joyce and Verhagen 2016). Horse herds are simulated differently, as settlements in ROMFARMS exploit these animals to maximise the number of immature animals that can be removed as a surplus commodity.…”