Purpose-Road freight carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions are determined by a complex interaction between shippers and hauliers within the boundaries set by regulations and economic factors. It is necessary to gain understanding about the various driving forces and trends affecting these to promote low carbon future. The purpose of this paper is to find out what factors affect the long-term future development of road freight CO 2 emissions and whether the long-term emission targets will be achieved. Design/methodology/approach-An international comparison of similar Delphi surveys is carried out in Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Findings-The Delphi surveys indicate that the structural change of the economy, changes of consumer habits, concerns of energy and environment and changes in logistics practices and technology are the overarching trends shaping the future of the energy efficiency and CO 2 emissions of road freight transport. The expert forecasts for Finland and Sweden highlight that reaching the carbon emission target of 30 per cent reduction for the year 2030 is possible. However, the CO 2 emissions may also increase significantly even though the CO 2 intensity would decrease, as the Norwegian forecast shows. Originality/value-This study combined quantitative and qualitative analysis. The results confirmed that similar factors are seen to affect the future in all three countries, but with some national differences in the likely effects of the factors. Future research using the same methodology would enable wider analysis of the global significance of these driving forces. Keywords Forecasting, CO 2 emissions, Delphi survey, Road freight transport Paper type Research paper
Abstract:The European Union (EU) promotes a gradual lifting of restrictions on foreign hauliers involved in domestic road transport of goods (cabotage), and liberalization of the current road cabotage rules may further increase the proportion of foreign heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) on Norwegian roads. The aims of the present study are to: (1) Examine the safety outcomes of increasing internationalisation in (Norwegian) road transport of goods; and (2) Discuss the importance of potential risk factors related to increasing proportions of foreign HGVs on Norwegian roads. We use four data sources to shed light on the aims. Results show that foreign HGVs account for 6% of the average domestic transport in Norway, and 11% of the HGVs involved in personal injury accidents. Additionally, foreign HGVs have a three times higher risk of single vehicle accidents, and twice the risk of head-on collisions. Foreign HGV drivers also seem more likely to trigger fatal accidents. We conclude that two risk factors seem to be important: (1) experience with/competence on Norwegian roads and (2) winter driving. Thus, the safety challenge is not that the drivers are foreign, but that they to some extent lack experience with, and competence on, the Norwegian road networks and the challenges that these roads may pose (e.g., narrow roads with high gradients, many curves, snow and ice). Previous research from other countries has also found that lacking experience with national road networks is an important risk factor. Given our results on risk factors, we may hypothesize that if foreign HGV drivers get more experience and education on Norwegian driving conditions, then increased internationalization could perhaps be of less concern in road safety. When discussing the higher accident risk and lower experience of foreign HGV drivers in Norway, it is important to note that the reason for foreign HGV drivers, working for foreign hauliers, to drive in Norway is that there are customers of the goods in Norway. Interviewees stressed that the foreign driver is often the last link in a long and complex chain of actors involved in the transport. Although these actors have a legal responsibility to "contribute to safety," interviewees stated that this responsibility is vague and not clearly enforced. We therefore suggest the clarification of, and an increase in, the responsibilities of the different parties involved in goods transport, especially the transport buyers. This means to both ensure the experience and training of the drivers (e.g., preparing them properly to drive on winter roads), and to positively influence their transport safety in other ways (e.g., reducing stress and time-pressure).
This paper presents estimates of logistics costs in Norway. Two different methodological approaches are taken: (i) use of the national freight transport model for Norway, in which logistics costs as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) are obtained from national freight flows between municipalities in Norway and from foreign trading partners and (ii) use of a survey of industry representatives, where the results are aggregated to the macro level and yield logistics costs as a share of GDP. The transport model includes detailed cost functions for transport and other logistics cost components along with a module for optimal shipment size, frequency and mode choice. Although the two approaches are quite different, we find almost identical estimates of transport costs. For the other logistics cost components (warehousing, capital costs, insurance, wastage, packaging and administration), the survey-based approach yielded slightly higher estimates, indicating that the freight transport model does not cover all logistics cost components.
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