a b s t r a c tFollowing the European Union strategy concerning renewable energy (RE), Portugal established in their national policy programmes that the production of electrical energy from RE should reach 45% of the total supply by 2010. Since Portugal has large forest biomass resources, a significant part of this energy will be obtained from this source. In addition to the two existing electric power plants, with 22 MW of power capacity, 13 new power plants having a total of 86.4 MW capacity are in construction. Together these could generate a combination of electrical and thermal energy, known as combined heat and power (CHP) production. As these power plants will significantly increase the exploitation of forests resources, this article evaluates the potential quantities of available forest biomass residue for that purpose. In addition to examining the feasibility of producing both types of energy, we also examine the potential for producing only electric energy. Results show that if only electricity is generated some regions will need to have alternative fuel sources to fulfil the demand. However, if cogeneration is implemented the wood fuel resource will be sufficient to fulfill the required capacity demand.

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Reservoirs are fundamental for water and energy supply but vulnerable to impacts including climate change. This paper outlines the steps in the development of a model to predict how climate, land use and hydrological change could affect the physiochemical and ecological quality of reservoirs in Portugal's Douro region. Climatic data will be downscaled for subsequent finer spatial scale models to develop scenarios and outputs. Field observations and satellite imagery analysis will create dynamic maps providing data on change in land use and vegetation cover, while Artificial Neural Networks will determine how climate, land use and vegetation cover change may influence catchment hydrology. Data from field surveys of biological indicators, greenhouse gas emissions plus additional research will be applied in the Stochastic Dynamic Methodology, a sequential modelling process based on statistical parameter estimation, developed to predict and model physiochemical and ecological changes in reservoirs. This interdisciplinary approach will provide vital modelling tools for end users essential for water resource management in Portugal and to comply with the EU Water Framework Directive. ReferencesAllan J D, Erickson D L and Fay J 1997 The influence of catchment land use on stream integrity across multiple spatial scales Freshwater Biology 37 149-61 Andrade C, Santos J A, Pinto J G and Corte-Real J 2011 The wet 2010 winter in Portugal: hydrological impacts and large-scale atmospheric dynamics Climate Research 46 29-41 A 2012 Testing a novel spatially-explicit dynamic modelling approach in the Figure 5 A flow diagram of the separate modules that will contribute to the development of the predictive model 440 Hughes et al.

Studies about the productivity of forest ecosystems help to quantify sequestered carbon and provide data that are used in forest management. Forests in northern Portugal are an important economic resource, but their productivity in scenarios of future climate change is not yet well understood. The objectives of this study were to evaluate and compare simulated net primary production (NPP) and NPP based on measured data of two tree species located in the Vila Real district forests, pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) and oak (Quercus pyrenaica Willd.) and assess their simulated NPP in diverse climate conditions, including future climate scenarios and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. An ecosystem process model, Biome-BGC, which simulates carbon, nitrogen and water cycles of forest ecosystems close to equilibrium conditions, was used to examine the importance of site and ecophysiological factors on the productivity of these forests. Climate change scenarios and increased CO 2 concentrations were tested to explore potential responses of the studied species. The model provided good estimates of NPP. There was a strong correlation between the simulated and measured NPP values in the pine (15) and oak (15) stands. The NPP of these forests are predicted to increase in the future with a CO 2 increase whereas in a climate with higher temperature and lower soil moisture, the NPP will decrease. These results confirm that precipitation is a very important climate variable to growth and productivity in the Mediterranean forest ecosystems. This study also demonstrated the ability of Biome-BGC to accurately simulate forest ecosystems behaviour and encourages the application of model simulations in Portugal.

Biomass from forestry and agricultural sector provides an important contribution to encounter the government’s targets for increasing bioenergy production and utilization. Characterization of agricultural and forest wastes are critical for exploiting and utilizing them for energy purpose. In the present work agricultural and forest wastes and shrubs were sampled in two sites in north Portugal (Ave and Sabor basin) and subjected to Higher Heating Value (HHV) and chemical composition quantification. The HHV was evaluated according to the methodology described in Standard DD CEN/TS14918:2005. For the lignin content, the procedure was made by the Klason method and the extractives content was determined with the Soxhlet method. For agricultural and forest wastes the HHV values are identical with a range of 17 to 21 MJ·kg−1. However, shrubs biomass presentx slightly higher and statistically different values from agricultural and forest wastes, varying between 19 and 21 MJ·kg−1. Forest wastes contain higher levels of holocellulose compared to agricultural wastes and, with respect to extractive contents, this trend is the reverse. There is a general tendency for the woody components present thermo-chemical properties more suited for energy purposes, than the residues formed by the branches and leaves.