A predictive modelling tool for assessing climate, land use and hydrological change on reservoir physicochemical and biological properties

Abstract

Reservoirs are fundamental for water and energy supply but vulnerable to impacts including climate change. This paper outlines the steps in the development of a model to predict how climate, land use and hydrological change could affect the physiochemical and ecological quality of reservoirs in Portugal's Douro region. Climatic data will be downscaled for subsequent finer spatial scale models to develop scenarios and outputs. Field observations and satellite imagery analysis will create dynamic maps providing data on change in land use and vegetation cover, while Artificial Neural Networks will determine how climate, land use and vegetation cover change may influence catchment hydrology. Data from field surveys of biological indicators, greenhouse gas emissions plus additional research will be applied in the Stochastic Dynamic Methodology, a sequential modelling process based on statistical parameter estimation, developed to predict and model physiochemical and ecological changes in reservoirs. This interdisciplinary approach will provide vital modelling tools for end users essential for water resource management in Portugal and to comply with the EU Water Framework Directive. ReferencesAllan J D, Erickson D L and Fay J 1997 The influence of catchment land use on stream integrity across multiple spatial scales Freshwater Biology 37 149-61 Andrade C, Santos J A, Pinto J G and Corte-Real J 2011 The wet 2010 winter in Portugal: hydrological impacts and large-scale atmospheric dynamics Climate Research 46 29-41 A 2012 Testing a novel spatially-explicit dynamic modelling approach in the Figure 5 A flow diagram of the separate modules that will contribute to the development of the predictive model 440 Hughes et al.

Habitat‐oriented Sampling of Macroinvertebrates Affects the Determination of Ecological Status in Temporary Mediterranean River Systems

“…Particular macroinvertebrate traits associated with a given habitat (morphological adaptations, feeding behaviour and available food resources, reproductive strategies) are related to evolutionary adaptations resulting in feeding, reproduction and growth strategies that best exploit available resources within given habitats (Southwood, 1977(Southwood, , 1988. Mediterranean intermittent rivers, such as those in the Algarve region, undergo strong annual and inter-annual variation in flow, a phenomenon directly related to precipitation patterns influenced by different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (Hughes et al, 2012;Trigo et al, 2004). Such variation strongly influences the spatial and temporal hydrological regime of flooding and subsequent drought/drying in Mediterranean fluvial systems, biotic and abiotic processes such as sediment transport and patterns of erosion and deposition (Gasith and Resh, 1999;Roy et al 2003;Hooke, 2006;Reid et al, 2010).…”

“…The streams and rivers of the Hydrographical Administrative Region for the Algarve (ARH‐Algarve), located in southern Portugal (Figure ), are Mediterranean in character with a temporary flow regime, exhibiting marked but predictable natural cycles of flood and drought that vary in intensity according to annual and inter‐annual rainfall levels (Gasith and Resh, ; Bêche and Resh, , ). These patterns are directly related to different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (Trigo et al ., ; Hughes et al ., ). Maximum discharge occurs during the winter months (November to April), falling to virtually zero from late spring (May to early June) onwards.…”

Introduction to adapting water management to climate change: putting our science into practice

“…In the first paper, the data sources and interdisciplinary expertise required to develop a modelling tool for assessing potential climate, hydrological and land‐use changes on reservoirs in Portugal are outlined (Hughes et al . ). Given that the Iberian Peninsula is the European region most prone to drought, there is a pressing need to develop an integrated approach for the management of reservoirs to comply with the EU Water Framework Directive.…”

“…The four papers that follow are catchment‐scale studies of the influence of climate, land use, hydrological variability or diffuse inputs of pollutants on reservoirs in the Douro River Basin in Portugal (Hughes et al . ); the River Eden catchment, Cumbria, UK (Owen et al . ) and the Belford Catchment, Northumbria, UK (Barber and Quinn ; Nicholson et al .…”

Contemporary and future distribution patterns of fluvial vegetation under different climate change scenarios and implications for integrated water resource management

“…The national dam building program ''Programa Nacional de Barragens com Elevado Potencial Hidroele´ctrico'' or PNBEPH (Ministe´rio do Ambiente, Ordenamento do Territo´rio e Energia 2015) is an example of these disturbances. The aim of this program is to reduce national dependency on imported energy by promoting alternative endogenous domestic wind and hydroelectric energy production by building several hydroelectric dams across northern Portugal (Hughes et al 2012). However, hydroelectric infrastructures disturb the river continuum and the natural flow regimes, and consequently fluvial vegetation (Jansson et al 2005;Bernez and Ferreira 2007;Bombino et al 2008).…”