Reservoirs are fundamental for water and energy supply but vulnerable to impacts including climate change. This paper outlines the steps in the development of a model to predict how climate, land use and hydrological change could affect the physiochemical and ecological quality of reservoirs in Portugal's Douro region. Climatic data will be downscaled for subsequent finer spatial scale models to develop scenarios and outputs. Field observations and satellite imagery analysis will create dynamic maps providing data on change in land use and vegetation cover, while Artificial Neural Networks will determine how climate, land use and vegetation cover change may influence catchment hydrology. Data from field surveys of biological indicators, greenhouse gas emissions plus additional research will be applied in the Stochastic Dynamic Methodology, a sequential modelling process based on statistical parameter estimation, developed to predict and model physiochemical and ecological changes in reservoirs. This interdisciplinary approach will provide vital modelling tools for end users essential for water resource management in Portugal and to comply with the EU Water Framework Directive. ReferencesAllan J D, Erickson D L and Fay J 1997 The influence of catchment land use on stream integrity across multiple spatial scales Freshwater Biology 37 149-61 Andrade C, Santos J A, Pinto J G and Corte-Real J 2011 The wet 2010 winter in Portugal: hydrological impacts and large-scale atmospheric dynamics Climate Research 46 29-41 A 2012 Testing a novel spatially-explicit dynamic modelling approach in the Figure 5 A flow diagram of the separate modules that will contribute to the development of the predictive model 440 Hughes et al.
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