Aviation security is an important component of the concept of general national security, the system of personal security, public safety and transport safety from external and internal threats. Maintaining an acceptable level of national aviation safety is a priority for the industry. Economic security is very important in the context of globalization. The main tool for ensuring these tasks is proactive risk management. The development of economic risk management tools is relevant for sustainable development of both the industry of civil aviation in particular, and in the state economy as a whole.
The issue of substantiation of the problematic components of sustainable development in the security dimension and threat identification methodology is investigated. The methodology consists of directly combining the identification of threats with the need to observe the limits of the safe existence of dynamic economic systems, which connects the problem of sustainable development with the problem of security. The explanation of the extended homeostatic plateau, which explains the conditions for the transition to a higher technological system, or the complication of functioning and the loss of the main functions of the existing technological system, has gained further development. A theoretical substantiation of the limits of secure existence in terms of security gradations is proposed: critical, threshold, and optimal on both sides of the “extended homeostatic plateau”. Quantitative values of security gradations are associated with the extension of the “t-criterion” method for the formal determination of bifurcation points for characteristic types of distribution, that is, threats. The identification, classification, and analysis of problematic components and critical threats at the level of components and indicators were carried out, which made it possible to identify only four strategic directions of institutional measures that allow covering almost all indicators of sustainable development at the regional level.
The article is dedicated to methods of integrating the safety of air transport in the mechanism of interaction between sustainable development goals and strategic management of sustanable development security through managerial, functional, and informational links between subsytems of sustainable development and different hierarchal levels of safety. This determines the place and role of aviation safety in ensuring fundamental national interests, i.e. sustainable development of national economy. The multifactor hierarchal model detailing the level of safety of air transport was developed in accordance with the system approach in the context of sustainable development and combines the economic and technological, social, and environmental components. It is proposed to consider a total of 7 components and 29 indicators that include shadow economy aspects, without which the current conditions cannot be estimated accurately. The boundaries of safe existence have been defined for all indicators using Student’s t-test. The conducted modelling has determined the current values of all indicators and the safety level of air transport as a whole. Identification has been carried out in accordance with the latest assessment methodology, including the multiplicative integral indices, modified method of normalization and formalized determination of dynamic weights. The list of threats and their severity have been determined using two criteria. Distance from the point of sustainable development, i.e. average value of the «homeostatic plateau», was used to identify the list and importance of threats, while the severity of threats was calculated using elasticity coefficients. The calculations show that the safety of air transport depends foremost on the social component, as well as economic and technological development of aviation.
”. Aviation safety is an important component of the concept of general national security, the system of personal security, ecological and public safety and transport safety from external and internal threats. Maintaining an acceptable level of national aviation safety is a priority for the industry. In the context of globalization, ecological safety is becoming especially important. World leaders gathered at the United Nations (UN) and adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It is a plan of action aimed at achieving global sustainable development in economic, social and environmental areas, which ensures that no UN member state is left behind. The 17 sustainable development goals on the 2030 Agenda can be used as benchmarks for the coordinated development of UN member states. One of the most important goals for the global survival of humankind is Goal 13 “Climate Change”. In order to find an adequate answer to this challenge, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has identified the following areas that can contribute to the attainment of the global aspirational goal: aircraft related technology and standards; improved air traffic management and operational improvements, development and deployment of sustainable aviation fuel and the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). The implementation of CORSIA is carried out not only at the global level, the initiative requires the search for effective management solutions at the national level. Statistics on the activities of the aviation industry of Ukraine indicate its stable development. However, unfortunately, the dynamic growth of air traffic entails an increase in emissions of chemical elements into the atmosphere, which are a real threat to the environment and can contribute to climate change processes. The main tool for ensuring ecological safety tasks is proactive risk management. The development of proactive tools for environmental risk management is relevant and has practical implications for sustainable development, both in the industry in particular and for the state as a whole. The articles offer the author's approaches to the identification of air transport ecological component level.
The aviation industry is an open type system, which is affected by a wide range of technical, natural, human and economic threats. In the same time, aviation is a generator of significant environmental threats. Therefore, we cannot imagine the aviation industry aside from seeking answers to contemporary global challenges. The aim of the article is to determine the theoretical foundations of strategic safety management of the aviation industry in order to develop effective tools for ensuring sustainable development of the national economy. Aviation safety is an important component of the concept of general national security, personal security, public safety and transport safety against external and internal threats. For strategic safety management of the aviation industry in the context of sustainable development of the national economy, a structural and functional scheme of an integrated threat identification and neutralization system, proactive risk management in solving the problems of ensuring aviation safety, safe connection of people and business and environmental safety has been developed. To identify and strategize the safety level of the aviation industry, timely identify and neutralize threats and manage risks, the modern methodology of the IES of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine is chosen. Methodology is based on the applied theory of systems, control theory, economic cybernetics and allows you to obtain the dynamics of integral indices of the aviation industry safety components, which can serve the best indicator of the effectiveness of safety measures. Instead of classical forecasting methods for strategic scenarios of the aviation industry, using the principle of “the past determines the future”, it is proposed to use adaptive methods of regulating control theory based on the principles of “the future is determined by the path to the future”.
World civil aviation is an open-source system that is affected by a large number of related and non-related factors. Aviation safety is one of the prioritized directions in the industry. Its managerial decision-making is primarily based on a versatile analysis of security data in which the choice of the appropriate mathematical apparatus is fundamental. This article suggests applying fractal-statistical analysis to evaluate the aviation safety management system in terms of determining the random distribution of quantitative dynamics of aircraft crashes with lethal consequences in the period from 1946 to 2017. This allows us to verify the adequacy of probabilistic approaches appliance in analysing the dynamics of aviation disasters. The results of research carried out on the basis of the Hurst exponent have allowed us to conclude that the dynamics of aviation disasters is characterized by the effect of "spatial memory". In other words, these are "hidden laws" which further investigation can become an effective tool for the development of proactive methods in managing aviation safety.
World leaders gathered at the United Nations (UN) and adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It is a plan of action aimed at achieving global sustainable development in economic, social and environmental areas, which ensures that no UN member state is left behind. The 17 sustainable development goals on the 2030 Agenda can be used as benchmarks for the coordinated development of UN member states. Aviation safety is an important component of the concept of general national security, the system of personal security, ecological and public safety and transport safety from external and internal threats. Maintaining an acceptable level of national aviation safety is a priority for the industry. The aviation transport is a part of the transport complex of Ukraine, which is an important component in the structure of the national economy and a link between all components of economic security to ensure the basic conditions of life and development of the state and society. The assessment of economic, technological, safety, social and ecological hazards is an integral part of all the logical blocks of the structural and functional scheme of strategic management of aviation safety in terms of sustainable development of the national economy. The task of the article is to determine and substantiate the main indicators of economic and technological development, safety, social and environmental components of air transport and assess their level. In the article the authors propose and present the dynamics in the period from 2010 to 2020 of 29 indicators of sustainable development of air transport of Ukraine, such us share of aviation transport in the gross value added (transport and communications); level of investment in aviation transport; level of export services of air transport; level of import services of aviation transport; level of shadowing of aviation transport; coefficient of manufacturability of aviation transport; capital utilization coefficient; level of shadow capital load; level of use of passenger capacity of aircraft and helicopters; level of renewal of fixed assets; cargo transport capacity of GDP by aviation transport; passenger transport capacity of GDP by aviation transport; average distance of cargo aviation transportation; average distance of passenger aviation transportation; ratio of domestic and international aviation transportation; catastrophes, accidents, serious coefficients for regular commercial/irregular commercial/non-commercial flights and execution of aviation works/training flights; level of wages in the production of aviation transport; level of employment in air transport; coefficient of population mobility; level of official GVA created by shadow wages; level of shadow employment; level of CO2 emissions of aviation transport of Ukraine to GDP; level of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere; level of environmental costs of aviation transport. Authors determine their threshold and optimal values. Indicators are given in groups in the above areas. Indicators are divided into stimulants (indicators that contribute to the sustainable development of air transport and the national economy) and disincentives (indicators that hinder the sustainable development of air transport and the national economy). The solution of this problem will make it possible to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the current state of air transport in Ukraine on the basis of a systematic approach
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