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This study confirms that daily mortality in Moscow increases during heat waves and cold spells. A considerable proportion of excess deaths during heat waves occur a short time earlier than they would otherwise have done. Harvesting, or short-term mortality displacement, may be less significant for longer periods of sustained heat stress.

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Evidence of the impact of air temperature and pressure on cardiovascular morbidity is still quite limited and controversial, and even less is known about the potential influence of geomagnetic activity. The objective of this study was to assess impacts of air temperature, barometric pressure and geomagnetic activity on hospitalizations with myocardial infarctions and brain strokes. We studied 2,833 myocardial infarctions and 1,096 brain strokes registered in two Moscow hospitals between 1992 and 2005. Daily event rates were linked with meteorological and geomagnetic conditions, using generalized linear model with controls for day of the week, seasonal and long-term trends. The number of myocardial infarctions decreased with temperature, displayed a U-shaped relationship with pressure and variations in pressure, and increased with geomagnetic activity. The number of strokes increased with temperature, daily temperature range and geomagnetic activity. Detrimental effects on strokes of low pressure and falling pressure were observed. Relative risks of infarctions and strokes during geomagnetic storms were 1.29 (95% CI 1.19-1.40) and 1.25 (1.10-1.42), respectively. The number of strokes doubled during cold spells. The influence of barometric pressure on hospitalizations was relatively greater than the influence of geomagnetic activity, and the influence of temperature was greater than the influence of pressure. Brain strokes were more sensitive to inclement weather than myocardial infarctions. This paper provides quantitative estimates of the expected increases in hospital admissions on the worst days and can help to develop preventive health plans for cardiovascular diseases.

In this paper, the authors systematize the results of their original investigations into quantitative indicators of interactions between indicators of air temperature, air pollution, and population mortality. The application of the time series method made it possible to identify the quantitative parameters of the impact made by temperature waves on mortality rates in Moscow (2000Moscow ( -2006 and in northern cities, such as Arch angelsk, Murmansk, Magadan, and Yakutsk (1999-2007).

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Цель исследования. Выбор наилучшего предиктора смертности во время волн жары и холода в условиях резко-континентального климата. Стратификация рисков смертности во время таких волн в Красноярске по основным причинам и возрастным группам для выявления основных температурных факторов повышенной смертности. Сравнение рисков с аналогичными результатами, полученными в южных городах России. Материал и методы. Метеоданные по 6 выбранным городам Сибири с резко-континентальным климатом получены с сайта Росгидромета. Для анализа воздействия продолжительных периодов экстремальных температур воздуха на смертность выбран Красноярск как крупнейший из изученных городов; данные о ежедневной смертности в Красноярске предоставлены Росстатом. Для вычисления относительных рисков смертности во время волн жары и холода использовалась Пуассоновская регрессионная модель суточной смертности с поправками на многолетние и сезонные тенденции смертности, день недели и суточный перепад температур.