The Indonesian government recently confirmed its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to mitigate global climate change. A forest moratorium policy that protects forest and peatland is a significant part of the INDCs; however, its effectiveness is unclear in the face of complex land-use and land-cover change. This study aims to assess the dynamics of land-use change and ecosystem service supply as a function of local decision-making. We developed an agent-based model, Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES), and used it to explore the possible effects of the forest moratorium policy on the land-use decisions of private companies and communities. Our simulations for two districts in Central Kalimantan show that the current implementation of the forest moratorium policy is not effective in reducing forest conversion and carbon emissions. This is because companies continue to invest in converting secondary forest on mineral soils and the moratorium does not affect community decision-making. A policy that combines a forest moratorium with livelihood support and increases farm-gate prices of forest and agroforestry products could increase the local communities’ benefits from conservation. Forest and agroforestry areas that are profitable and competitive are more likely to be conserved and reduce potential carbon emission by about 36 %. The results for the two districts, with different pressures on local resources, suggest that appropriate additional measures require local fine-tuning. The LUCES model could be an ex ante tool to facilitate such fine-tuning and help the Indonesian government achieve its INDC goals as part of a wider sustainable development policy.
Due to its multiscale impacts, deforestation of tropical rainforests had become a global concern. A number of stakeholders comprising government, research agencies, and NGOs; ranging from local to international levels; have developed their own forest monitoring systems for detecting forest loss. However, discrepancies on deforestation reports from various producers often trigger public debates; which mostly degenerate the productivity of efforts in providing salient, legitimate and credible data on deforestation. Thus, we should reconcile the dispute by acknowledging the deforestation data from all sources. This study assessed the agreement between deforestation maps from various sources. In this case, deforestation maps of Kalimantan within 2009-2013 period from 4 sources were used; i.e. deforestation maps from European Space Agency - Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI), Forest Watch Indonesia (FWI), Global Forest Watch (GFW), and Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF). We found that the inter-rater agreement between deforestation maps were relatively low, as indicated by Cohen’s kappa (κ), ranging from slight (κ=0.18 between ESA-CCI and GFW) to fair (0.24 ≤ κ ≤ 0.35 for other pairs of sources); due to omission/commission disagreements (47.82% to 87.58%). It suggests that in order to reconcile the dispute, we should remove the omission disagreement by forming the union of deforestation maps. The results from further analyses proved that the union of deforestation maps increased the agreement to moderate (κ=0.44 between union map and FWI) and even substantial (κ=0.79 between union map and GFW). Findings of this study should support the implementation of one map policy.
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