Indonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)

Abstract

The Indonesian government recently confirmed its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to mitigate global climate change. A forest moratorium policy that protects forest and peatland is a significant part of the INDCs; however, its effectiveness is unclear in the face of complex land-use and land-cover change. This study aims to assess the dynamics of land-use change and ecosystem service supply as a function of local decision-making. We developed an agent-based model, Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES), and used it to explore the possible effects of the forest moratorium policy on the land-use decisions of private companies and communities. Our simulations for two districts in Central Kalimantan show that the current implementation of the forest moratorium policy is not effective in reducing forest conversion and carbon emissions. This is because companies continue to invest in converting secondary forest on mineral soils and the moratorium does not affect community decision-making. A policy that combines a forest moratorium with livelihood support and increases farm-gate prices of forest and agroforestry products could increase the local communities’ benefits from conservation. Forest and agroforestry areas that are profitable and competitive are more likely to be conserved and reduce potential carbon emission by about 36 %. The results for the two districts, with different pressures on local resources, suggest that appropriate additional measures require local fine-tuning. The LUCES model could be an ex ante tool to facilitate such fine-tuning and help the Indonesian government achieve its INDC goals as part of a wider sustainable development policy.

People-Centric Nature-Based Land Restoration through Agroforestry: A Typology

“…Development of integrated policy responses [149] in the face of trade-offs [150],has to effectively deal with anticipating actor choices in response to proposed policies [151] and the diversity of opinions and interpretations of current system state, trends and leverage factors [152], including the balance between what can be locally achieved versus what is determined at national scale [153].…”

Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system

“…Such contradictions between policies are particularly hard to resolve where a lack of institutional capacity exists, posing major challenges for countries with poorly functioning governance and judicial systems as they attempt to reduce illegal logging 20,40 . Similarly, nominal protections have been ineffectual in changing the behaviours of companies and communities involved in forest clearance in Indonesia 41 , or in controlling deforestation in the Congo caused by smallholder agriculturalists escaping conflict zones 39 . Russia's ambitious plans for forest-based mitigation are also likely to be hamstrung by the fragmented, contradictory and ineffective nature of forest policies at different governance levels 42,43 .…”

Defining ecological restoration of peatlands in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

“…Without developing alternative livelihood options, land use conversion will continue. Previous attempts to curb land use change, such as the logging moratorium policy, have not been effective to reduce forest conversion because monoculture plantation is too lucrative for private companies and smallholders to give up the practices (Suwarno et al ). Thus, determining trajectory conditions will have to consider the feasibility of the pathways to peatland restoration that can generate political will and multi‐stakeholder participation in the long run.…”