Users’ perspectives on validity of a simulation model for natural resource management

Lusiana, Betha; Noordwijk, Meine van; Suyamto, Desi; Mulia, Rachmat; Joshi, Laxman; Cadisch, Georg

doi:10.1080/14735903.2011.582362

Cited by 32 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The GOFt computations revealed that the agreement between simulated and observed land-use patterns during the examined baseline scenario period (1998-2008) was rather high (0.83-0.86) compared to other regional studies that relied on the Dyna-CLUE as LUC modelling engine [18,28,48]. One reason could be the relative large secondary forest cover (approximately 70%) in MSMW that did not substantially change in size or location during the assessment period from 1998-2008.…”

Section: Significance Of Baseline Regression Coefficients and Model Vmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…But as the spatial validation procedure of [29] determines the fit between two maps across multiple resolutions, it becomes evident that the area of secondary forests was therefore predicted well at the initial resolution of 25 m. Nevertheless, the chosen validation procedure refers to standard LUC model validation approaches, and further follows the plea of [49] to validate modelling results with historic land-use data. The GOFt computations revealed that the agreement between simulated and observed land-use patterns during the examined baseline scenario period (1998-2008) was rather high (0.83-0.86) compared to other regional studies that relied on the Dyna-CLUE as LUC modelling engine [18,28,48]. One reason could be the relative large secondary forest cover (approximately 70%) in MSMW that did not substantially change in size or location during the assessment period from 1998-2008.…”

Section: Significance Of Baseline Regression Coefficients and Model Vmentioning

confidence: 81%

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Simulating Stakeholder-Based Land-Use Change Scenarios and Their Implication on Above-Ground Carbon and Environmental Management in Northern Thailand

Lippe

Hilger

Sudchalee³

et al. 2017

Land

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Abstract:The objective of this study was to examine whether the coupling of a land-use change (LUC) model with a carbon-stock accounting approach and participatory procedures can be beneficial in a data-limited environment to derive implications for environmental management. Stakeholder-based LUC scenarios referring to different storylines of agricultural intensification and reforestation were simulated to explore their impact on above-ground carbon (AGC) for a period of twenty years . The watershed of Mae Sa Mai, Northern Thailand was used as a case study for this purpose. Coupled model simulations revealed that AGC stocks could be increased by up to 1.7 Gg C through expansion of forests or orchard areas. A loss of up to 0.4 Gg C would occur if vegetable production continue to expand at the expense of orchard and fallow areas. The coupled model approach was useful due to its moderate data demands, enabling the comparison of land-use types differing in AGC build-up rates and rotation times. The scenario analysis depicted clear differences in the occurrence of LUC hotspots, highlighting the importance of assessing the impact of potential future LUC pathways at the landscape level. The use of LUC scenarios based on local stakeholder scenarios offer a higher credibility for climate mitigation strategies but also underline the need to co-design policy frameworks that acknowledge the heterogeneity of stakeholder needs and environmental management frameworks.

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Section: Significance Of Baseline Regression Coefficients and Model Vmentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: Significance Of Baseline Regression Coefficients and Model Vmentioning

confidence: 81%

Simulating Stakeholder-Based Land-Use Change Scenarios and Their Implication on Above-Ground Carbon and Environmental Management in Northern Thailand

Lippe

Hilger

Sudchalee³

et al. 2017

Land

Self Cite

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“…In such a context, quality criteria for the application of science in natural resource management involve salience (actionable conclusions), credibility (evidence-based and empirically tested theoretical frameworks, explicitness of assumptions, and analysis of confidence intervals) and legitimacy (matching multiple stakeholder perceptions of representing their perspectives) (Lusiana et al 2011). The current study met these requirements; whereby the actionable conclusion is a set of REDD+ plan activities derived from land use planning and C emission maps (at various scales with estimated uncertainty).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of uncertainty and scale in carbon emission estimates on locally appropriate designs to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+)

Lusiana

Noordwijk

Johana

et al. 2013

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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This study combined uncertainty analysis of carbon emissions with local stakeholders' perspectives to develop an effective Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) scheme at the district level. Uncertainty of carbon emission estimates depends on scale while local stakeholders' views on plausible REDD+ schemes influence and limit transaction costs. The uncertainty analysis formed the basis for determining an appropriate scale for monitoring carbon emission estimates as performance measures for REDD+ incentives. Our analysis of stakeholder' perspectives explored (i) potential location and activities for lower emission development pathways, and (ii) perceived fair allocation of REDD+incentives. Our case study focused on frontier forest in Tanjung Jabung Barat District, Jambi, Indonesia. The uncertainty analysis used Monte Carlo simulation techniques using known inaccuracy of land cover classification and variation in carbon stocks assessment per land cover type. With decreasing spatial resolution of carbon emission maps, uncertainty in carbon estimates decreased. At 1 km 2 resolution uncertainty dropped below 5 %, retaining most of the coarser spatial variation in the district. Fairness, efficiency and transaction cost issues in the design of REDD+ mechanisms were readily recognized by local stakeholders, who converged on an equal allocation to short-term efficiency (emission reduction activities) and long-term fairness (alternative livelihood development). A striking difference occurred in desirable transaction costs (which include monitoring, reporting and verification), with Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) aiming for 8 %, while government and researchers accepted transaction costs of 40 %. Feasible measures for emission reduction in the district, derived from a participatory planning process, are compatible with the 1 km 2 spatial resolution of performance measures.

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“…In the discussion of this paper, we will consider the new flow persistence metric in terms of three groups of criteria for usable knowledge (Fig. 1, Clark et al, 2016;Lusiana et al, 2011;Leimona et al, 2015) based on salience (i, ii), credibility (ii, iv) and legitimacy (vvii):…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood risk reduction and flow buffering as ecosystem services – Part 1: Theory on flow persistence, flashiness and base flow

Noordwijk

Tanika²,

Lusiana³

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Flood damage reflects insufficient adaptation of human presence and activity to location and variability of river flow in a given climate. Flood risk increases when landscapes degrade, counteracted or aggravated by engineering solutions. Efforts to maintain and restore buffering as an ecosystem function may help adaptation to climate change, but this require quantification of effectiveness in their specific social-ecological context. However, the specific role of forests, trees, soil and drainage pathways in flow buffering, given geology, land form and climate, remains controversial. When complementing the scarce heavily instrumented catchments with reliable long-term data, especially in the tropics, there is a need for metrics for data-sparse conditions. We present and discuss a flow persistence metric that relates transmission to river flow of peak rainfall events to the base-flow component of the water balance. The dimensionless flow persistence parameter F p is defined in a recursive flow model and can be estimated from limited time series of observed daily flow, without requiring knowledge of spatially distributed rainfall upstream. The F p metric (or its change over time from what appears to be the local norm) matches local knowledge concepts. Inter-annual variation in the F p metric in sample watersheds correlates with variation in the "flashiness index" used in existing watershed health monitoring programmes, but the relationship between these metrics varies with context. Inter-annual variation in F p also correlates with common base-flow indicators, but again in a way that varies between watersheds. Further exploration of the responsiveness of F p in watersheds with different characteristics to the interaction of land cover and the specific realisation of space-time patterns of rainfall in a limited observation period is needed to evaluate interpretation of F p as an indicator of anthropogenic changes in watershed conditions.

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