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This is an author produced version of a paper published in Biological Conservation. This paper has been peer-reviewed but may not include the final publisher proof-corrections or pagination.

Metapopulation models are often used for understanding and predicting species dynamics in fragmented landscapes. Several models have been proposed depending on e.g. the relative importance of patch dynamics on the metapopulation dynamics. Dead wood is a dynamic substrate patch, and species that are confined to such patches have experienced a high degree of habitat loss in managed forests. Little is, however, known about how the population dynamics of epixylic species are affected by the fast dynamics of their substrate patches. We quantified the effect of local patch conditions and metapopulation processes on colonizations and extinctions of epixylic lichen species in a managed boreal forest landscape. This was done by twice surveying seven lichen metapopulations on 293 stumps in 30 stands of ages covering the duration of the dynamic patches (stumps). We also investigated the relative importance of local stochastic extinctions from stumps that remained available, and deterministic extinctions due to stump surface disappearance. We found importance of a decay gradient, surrounding metapopulation size, and local population sizes, in driving the colonization–extinction dynamics of epixylic lichens. The species were sorted along the stump decay gradient. Increasing surrounding metapopulation size was associated with increased colonization rates, and increasing local population size decreased lichen extinction rates. Finally, both local stochastic extinctions and deterministic extinctions due to patch disappearance occur, confirming that the long‐term persistence of epixylic lichens depends on colonization rates that compensate for stochastic population extinctions as well as deterministic extinctions.

Biological edge effects are often assessed in high quality focal habitats that are negatively influenced by human-modified low quality matrix habitats. A deeper understanding of the possibilities for positive edge effects in matrix habitats bordering focal habitats (e.g. spillover effects) is, however, essential for enhancing landscape-level resilience to human alterations. We surveyed epixylic (dead wood inhabiting) forest-interior cryptogams (lichens, bryophytes, and fungi) associated with mature old-growth forests in 30 young managed Swedish boreal forest stands bordering a mature forest of high conservation value. In each young stand we registered species occurrences on coarse dead wood in transects 0–50 m from the border between stand types. We quantified the effect of distance from the mature forest on the occurrence of forest-interior species in the young stands, while accounting for local environment and propagule sources. For comparison we also surveyed epixylic open-habitat (associated with open forests) and generalist cryptogams. Species composition of epixylic cryptogams in young stands differed with distance from the mature forest: the frequency of occurrence of forest-interior species decreased with increasing distance whereas it increased for open-habitat species. Generalists were unaffected by distance. Epixylic, boreal forest-interior cryptogams do occur in matrix habitats such as clear-cuts. In addition, they are associated with the matrix edge because of a favourable microclimate closer to the mature forest on southern matrix edges. Retention and creation of dead wood in clear-cuts along the edges to focal habitats is a feasible way to enhance the long-term persistence of epixylic habitat specialists in fragmented landscapes. The proposed management measures should be performed in the whole stand as it matures, since microclimatic edge effects diminish as the matrix habitat matures. We argue that management that aims to increase habitat quality in matrix habitats bordering focal habitats should increase the probability of long-term persistence of habitat specialists.

Despite increasing awareness of the theoretical importance of habitat dynamics on metapopulations, only a few empirical studies have been conducted. We aimed to increase our understanding of how patch size, dynamics and connectivity affect colonization–extinction dynamics and the occurrence patterns of a beetle (Stephanopachys linearis), which breeds only in burned trees, existing as dynamic habitat patches that have become rare in managed forest landscapes. We assessed species’ presence/absence twice in all known habitat patches (i.e. > 1 ha sites where forest fires had occurred during the previous 2–15 yr) in a 200 × 150 km region of central Sweden, dominated by managed boreal forest. Evaluated over six years, the colonization rate was 47% and the local extinction risk was 65%. Probability of colonization increased with patch size (number of suitable trees in a site) and connectivity to occupied patches within 30 km, and decreased with increasing time since fire. Local extinction risk decreased with habitat patch size but increased, unexpectedly, with connectivity. Occurrence increased with patch size and decreased with increasing time since fire. At a regional scale, S. linearis tracks the fire dynamics by colonising sites with burned trees and by becoming extinct at rates which make the species rare at sites where burnt trees are more than eight years old. In managed boreal forest landscapes, a large proportion of sites may be created by prescribed burning (in our study area: 82%), and consequently human decisions strongly affect the future amount of habitat for fire‐dependent species and its spatial distribution. Stephanopachys linearis uses burned sites more often if more trees are retained and, to some extent, if sites are concentrated in those parts of a region that already support high population densities of the species.

Applying biogeographical insights to the regulation of production forestry and the determination of forest reserve strategies is expected to increase the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation actions. Here, we assess the extent to which such applications take place. By using Sweden as a case study, we demonstrate fundamental differences among biogeographical regions in natural patterns and processes, past land-use, and anthropogenic impacts that need to be better incorporated into strategic conservation planning and decisions. Furthermore, assessment of specific forestry regulations and biogeographical variation in a number of other countries/provinces embracing boreal and temperate biomes also indicate that natural boundaries are insufficiently considered in forest management policies. We suggest that a substantial potential exists to better align conservation priorities with biogeographical characteristics. To illustrate the application of such an approach, we present a decision support model on how forest conservation policies that rest on natural boundaries and ecological processes can be developed.

Methods: Saproxylic beetles were sampled under the bark of dead wood in a managed forest 7 landscape in central Sweden. We modelled the occurrence probability in dead wood items of 44 8 species (all species occurring in >2% of the items), based on dead wood item characteristics, 9 forest stand characteristics, and habitat connectivity (i.e. area of potentially suitable forest stands 10 in the surrounding of each stand), using hierarchical Bayesian regression. 11Results: For the majority of species, dead wood item characteristics (especially tree species and 12 whether standing or downed) were more important than measured stand characteristics and 13 habitat connectivity. Whether the stands were clear-cuts, mature forests, or reserves affected 14 some species, whereas the stand-level amount of dead wood per hectare was not important for 15 any species. Habitat connectivity improved the occurrence models for about a half of the species, 16 but there were both positive and negative relationships, and they were generally weak.