Abstract. The colonization-extinction dynamics of many species are affected by the dynamics of their patches. For increasing our understanding of the metapopulation dynamics of sessile species confined to dynamic patches, we fitted a Bayesian incidence function model extended for dynamic landscapes to snapshot data on five epiphytic lichens among 2083 mapped oaks (dynamic patches). We estimate the age at which trees become suitable patches for different species, which defines their niche breadth (number of suitable trees). We show that the colonization rates were generally low, but increased with increasing connectivity in accordance with metapopulation theory. The rates were related to species traits, and we show, for the first time, that they are higher for species with wide niches and small dispersal propagules than for species with narrow niches or large propagules. We also show frequent long-distance dispersal in epiphytes by quantifying the relative importance of local dispersal and background deposition of dispersal propagules. Local stochastic extinctions from intact trees were negligible in all study species, and thus, the extinction rate is set by the rate of patch destruction (tree fall). These findings mean that epiphyte metapopulations may have slow colonization-extinction dynamics that are explained by connectivity, species traits, and patch dynamics.

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This study aimed at comparing six patch connectivity measures by fitting them to field data. We used occupancy data for eight beetle and two pseudoscorpion species from 281 hollow oaks in southeast Sweden. Species occupancy was modelled in relation to tree characteristics and one measure of patch connectivity at a time. For each connectivity measure we searched for the spatial scale that generated the best fit to field data. Connectivity measures that only include occupied patches provided better model fits than those that include all patches. When occupancy data are absent for surrounding habitat patches, information that reflects occurrence probabilities can be included in the connectivity measure. However, in this study incorporation of such information resulted in only a slight improvement of model fit. A frequently used connectivity measure based on the negative exponential function was relatively poor in explaining species’ occurrence; for eight species out of nine a buffer measure was better. A better fit was obtained when the negative exponential function was modified to take into account that habitat patches may “compete” for the immigrants. The spatial scale with the best fit tended to be larger when we used connectivity measures in which dispersal sources are identified with lower precision. Thus, the outcomes from different multiple‐scale studies are not directly comparable if the density of dispersal sources is not measured in the same way. Overall we conclude that buffer measures are useful, as they give good predictions and are easy to understand and use. If a biologically more realistic measure is needed, one that up‐weights the closest patches should be used. Finally, the possibility that habitat patches may compete with each other for immigrants should be considered when selecting a connectivity measure.

Summary1. Adequately describing the dispersal mechanisms of a species is important for understanding and predicting its distribution dynamics in space and time. For wind-dispersed species, the transportation of airborne propagules is comparatively well studied, while the mechanisms triggering propagule release are poorly understood, especially for cryptogams. 2. We investigated the effect of wind speed and turbulence on spore release in the moss Atrichum undulatum in a wind tunnel. Specifically, we measured the amount of spores released from sporophytes when exposed to different wind speeds, in high and low turbulence, using a particle counter. We also related spore release to variation in vibrations of the sporophyte and investigated how the vibrations were affected by wind speed, turbulence and sporophyte length (here including capsule, seta and the top part of the shoot). 3. We show that in high turbulence, the amount of spores released increased with increasing wind speed, while in low turbulence, it did not, within the wind speed range 0.8-4.3 m s À1 . However, there was a threshold in wind speed (~2.5-3 m s À1 ) before large amounts of spores started to be released in turbulent flow, which coincided with incipient vibrations of the sporophyte. Thresholds in wind variation, rather than average wind speed, seemed to initiate sporophyte vibrations. The vibration threshold increased with decreasing sporophyte length. 4. The deposition of spores near the source decreased with increasing wind variation during the time of their release, based on simulated spore deposition from another study of moss dispersal. 5. Synthesis. We suggest that vibration of moss sporophytes is an important mechanism to regulate spore release and that turbulence and sporophyte length regulate the onset of sporophyte vibration. Spore release thresholds affect dispersal distances and have implications for our understanding and predictions of species distribution patterns, population dynamics and persistence. The mechanisms of this phase of the dispersal process are also important to explore for other species, as there may be a substantial variation depending on the species' different traits.

Extreme weather events can be expected to increase in frequency in the future. Our knowledge on how this may affect species persistence is, however, very limited. For reliable projections of future persistence we need to understand how extreme weather affects species' population dynamics. We analysed the effect of extreme droughts on the host plant Succisa pratensis, colonization–extinction dynamics, and future persistence of the threatened marsh fritillary Euphydryas aurinia. Specifically, we studied a metapopulation inhabiting a network of 256 patches on Gotland (Sweden), where the summer of 2018 was the driest ever recorded. We analysed how the frequency and leaf size of host plants changed between 2017 and 2019, based on 6,833 records in 0.5‐m2 sample plots. Using turnover data on the butterfly from 2018 to 2019 we modelled local extinction and colonization probabilities. Moreover, we projected future population dynamics with an increasing frequency of extreme years under three different management strategies that regulate the grazing regime. Our results show a substantial decrease in both frequency (46%) and size (20%) of host plants due to the drought, which taken together may constitute a 57% loss of food resources. The butterfly occupancy decreased by over 30% between 2018 and 2019 (from 0.36 to 0.27). The extinction probability increased with increasing ‘effective area’ of the patch (taking quality reduction due to grazing into account), and the colonization probability increased with increasing connectivity and ground moisture. Projections of future dynamics showed an increasing risk of metapopulation extinction with increasing frequency of years with extreme droughts. The risk, however, clearly differed between management strategies. Less grazing in years with droughts decreased the extinction risk considerably. Synthesis and applications. Extreme weather events can have profound negative impacts on butterflies and their host plants. For the marsh fritillary, an increased frequency of extreme droughts can lead to extinction of the entire metapopulation, even in a large and seemingly viable metapopulation. Increased grazing, due to fodder deficiency in dry years, may lead to cascading negative effects, while active management that reduce grazing in years with droughts can almost completely mitigate these effects.