ABSTRACThis study is performed to present the effects of real exchange rate shocks on exports of processed agricultural products in Turkey. Although there are a lot of studies on this topic, but none of them has focused solely on the processed agri-products. As processed agri-products are getting more popular, with a more focused approach this study will not only enrich the literature, but also help policy-makers in devising policies. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is used in this study. The findings are interpreted according to the impulseresponse analysis and variance (forecast error) decomposition results. The results indicate that there is a significant relationship between real exchange rates and exports of processed agricultural products. This relationship is positive during the first quarter. However, later on, it becomes negative with a downward slope. On the other hand, the shocks of real exchange rate can explain only %0.2-0.7 of prediction error variance for exports of processed agricultural products. The findings can be useful in policy making.

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Risks faced by the trading firms cannot be eliminated completely due to the reasons arising from the structure of international trade. Therefore, minimizing risk and managing it well lay down the foundation of modern risk approach. The most important element of risk management is to define and categorize the risk. This study aims at perceptual description of risk within the scope of the firms exporting agricultural products in Turkey. The main purpose is to classify the risks faced by these firms. The study uses factor analysis to determine the behavioral and perceptional dimensions of the firms; and also uses multidimensional scaling in positioning the firms' risk perceptions. The findings show that seven dimensions namely political, economic, trade, financial, food safety and goods delivery formulate risk perception of the firms. Multi-dimensional scaling technique maps the perception under two dimensions. The results of the research can be helpful for the managers of agri-products export firms in designing risk management strategies.

The purpose of this research is to study the relation between wheat price shocks and speculative movements. VAR model is developed to analyze the data. Impulse-Response functions and Variance Decomposition method are used to analyze the size of relationship among the variables. Wheat prices are effected significantly by speculative movements in the short-run. The relation loses its significance after three months. The effect of speculation on wheat prices can lead to negative reaction from the producers; that will be harmful for an economy as a whole. In order to prevent this, effective use of the government policies is needed; so that, in the long-run, not only economic but also speculative based price structure can be achieved. The disclosures of global wheat yield estimated by the authorities can be a helpful tool in order to control speculative movements and in achieving long-run market equilibrium. This study encompasses a bigger picture and provides an opportunity to have a deeper and broader look into the dynamics of wheat prices. Thus, it can be advantageous for traders as well as for policy makers.

Globalization, despite all of its advantages, poses serious threats to the world economies. One of the vital issues is global crisis arising from various sources. Firms develop strategies for crisis management in order to be least affected from the global crisis. The main purpose of this study is to put forward behavioral trends of the firms in crisis period. A questionnaire study is conducted to 167 agri-products export firms. Factor analysis is used to identify behavioral dimensions of the firms during global crisis. These dimensions are used as input to cluster analysis in order to cluster the firms on the basis of their decision trends (expansion, contraction or maintain the current position) in risky environment. The results show that 21% of the firms make expansion decisions and 34.7% of them decide to go for contraction. These behavioral trends of the market participants in the face of crisis might be important for policy makers to take necessary measures in order to create a rational environment for firms to continue their operations.

From 2005 to 2008, high volatility in the markets affected grain prices significantly. This high volatility in grain prices made many researchers curious, and many discussions aroused from this topic. This study analyzes wheat price behavior during this period of high volatility. We estimate a return index for wheat using spot and futures wheat prices with the help of a present value model. To analyze the cointegration between the wheat prices and return index, a new co-integration test with multiple structural breaks, developed by Daiki Maki (2012), is used. The long-run cointegration coefficients are estimated using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares methodology. The empirical results show that there is cointegration between the spot and futures wheat prices, which tends to change at breakpoints. In other words, there is an equilibrium relation between spot prices and futures prices; however, it becomes unstable during the crisis in 2008. The results may help in understanding the dynamics of wheat prices, especially during high-volatility periods.

The objective of this paper is to check the impact of dividend policy and firm Housing Microfinance / Low-Cost Housing Scheme has been promoted to fill the national housing demand/supply gap in Pakistan in recent years. Prime Minister’s Low-Cost Housing Scheme (PM-LCHS) was introduced with the aim of providing financial assistance to poor and deserving families enabling raise in their living standards. A total of     Rs. 8.54 billion has been disbursed so far through Akhuwat Islamic Microfinance. The study aims to empirically test the impact of PM-LCHS loan utilization on beneficiaries’ welfare in terms of socio-economic indicators. This research also proposes to assess governance and administrative efficiency and design effectiveness of the initiative The total population of 17, 344 beneficiaries is sampled using Proportionate Stratified Sampling; Group 1 (stratum 1) constitutes beneficiaries who are in utilization phase and Group 2 (stratum 2) constitutes beneficiaries who are repaying the loan post 100% loan utilization. The proposed frameworks are tested using data collected from 463 beneficiaries. Key findings show that PM-LCHS utilization improved sense of security, societal standing and psychological conditions of respondents. Moreover, the loan utilization has enhanced multiple components of sanitation conditions and housing infrastructure; yet the repayment amounts causing no negative impact on their financial wellbeing. However, PM-LCHS utilization is not found to have any effect on beneficiaries’ health. Furthermore, Akhuwat has administered PM-LCHS efficiently and beneficiaries are satisfied from its governance. Thus, any other financial institution interested in offering such a HMF initiative must have appropriate human resource and skillset to reach the eligible clientele and address their financial requirements like AIM.  Though, respondents are satisfied from the scheme as a whole, the study elucidates concerns about some design elements, namely financing limit, repayment period and number of disbursement instalments. These findings again have policy implications for the institutions seeking to enter the HMF market; incorporate these results to formulate the HMF/LCHS product that better suit the financing needs of low-earning people. The originality of this study is theorizing and empirically testing the effect of Housing Microfinance/ Low-Cost Housing Scheme and analyzing the linkages between PMLCHS loan utilization and beneficiaries’ living standards and welfare in Pakistani context.

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