ABSTRACThis study is performed to present the effects of real exchange rate shocks on exports of processed agricultural products in Turkey. Although there are a lot of studies on this topic, but none of them has focused solely on the processed agri-products. As processed agri-products are getting more popular, with a more focused approach this study will not only enrich the literature, but also help policy-makers in devising policies. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is used in this study. The findings are interpreted according to the impulseresponse analysis and variance (forecast error) decomposition results. The results indicate that there is a significant relationship between real exchange rates and exports of processed agricultural products. This relationship is positive during the first quarter. However, later on, it becomes negative with a downward slope. On the other hand, the shocks of real exchange rate can explain only %0.2-0.7 of prediction error variance for exports of processed agricultural products. The findings can be useful in policy making.
The purpose of this research is to study the relation between wheat price shocks and speculative movements. VAR model is developed to analyze the data. Impulse-Response functions and Variance Decomposition method are used to analyze the size of relationship among the variables. Wheat prices are effected significantly by speculative movements in the short-run. The relation loses its significance after three months. The effect of speculation on wheat prices can lead to negative reaction from the producers; that will be harmful for an economy as a whole. In order to prevent this, effective use of the government policies is needed; so that, in the long-run, not only economic but also speculative based price structure can be achieved. The disclosures of global wheat yield estimated by the authorities can be a helpful tool in order to control speculative movements and in achieving long-run market equilibrium. This study encompasses a bigger picture and provides an opportunity to have a deeper and broader look into the dynamics of wheat prices. Thus, it can be advantageous for traders as well as for policy makers.
Risks faced by the trading firms cannot be eliminated completely due to the reasons arising from the structure of international trade. Therefore, minimizing risk and managing it well lay down the foundation of modern risk approach. The most important element of risk management is to define and categorize the risk. This study aims at perceptual description of risk within the scope of the firms exporting agricultural products in Turkey. The main purpose is to classify the risks faced by these firms. The study uses factor analysis to determine the behavioral and perceptional dimensions of the firms; and also uses multidimensional scaling in positioning the firms' risk perceptions. The findings show that seven dimensions namely political, economic, trade, financial, food safety and goods delivery formulate risk perception of the firms. Multi-dimensional scaling technique maps the perception under two dimensions. The results of the research can be helpful for the managers of agri-products export firms in designing risk management strategies.
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