В статье, применительно к проблеме кибербезопасности, рассматриваются актуальные вопросы геодинамических рисков на примере территории Кипра и прилегающей акватории Средиземного моря. Цель статьианализ геодинамических рисков в указанном регионе, построение адекватных моделей их оценки, а также обоснование индикаторов геодинамической опасности. Построена вероятностная модель, описывающая последовательность геодинамических состояний геологической среды исследуемой территории и удовлетворяющая условиям независимости, однородности и ординарности потоков событий. Дано ее описание в виде дифференциальных уравнений Колмогорова. На основе модели получено эквипотенциальное распределение геодинамического риска, позволяющее обосновывать зоны безопасного размещения инфотелекоммуникационной структуры на острове Кипр и его побережье. Немаловажный прикладной аспект модельных исследований -это поиск геодинамических индикаторов сейсмического риска. Одним из таких индикаторов являются вихревые структуры, образованные векторами горизонтальных напряжений в литосфере Земли. Наибольшая концентрация эпицентров произошедших землетрясений и наибольший вероятностный геодинамический риск приходятся на территорию, где наблюдается взаимное пересечение четырёх вихревых структур в районе юго-западного побережья острова. Важный аспект оценки геодинамического риска связан с задачей поиска индикаторов нефтегазоносных месторождений. Используя цифровую модель литосферы Земли, созданную авторами, установлено, что нефтегазоносные месторождения территориально размещаются на границах левовращающейся вихревой структуры, образованной конкретными физическими характеристиками литосферы. Это подтверждается эмпирическими данными на примере территории Кипра и прилегающей к нему акватории Средиземного моря. Сделан вывод о том, что для уточнения геодинамических рисков потребуются картографические данные о более детальных распределениях движений земной коры, тектонических нарушениях и аномального гравитационного поля.Ключевые слова: кибербезопасность, сейсмическая опасность, Кипр, вероятностная модель, геодинамический риск, индикатор, литосфера Земли, горизонтальные напряжения, нефтегазоносные зоны.
Building information modelling (BIM) – new technology of construction object information maintenance. It allows specifying influence of changes and risks made in it (including geodynamic) at all stages of lifecycle. Objects include products, building equipment, technological platform, the building, engineering, transportation networks and systems of building communication. The model expands possibilities of innovative technologies implementation, allowing creating reasoned economic decisions.
In the paper, the oil and gas exploration methods and technologies have been compared. It is noted that the use of modern computer technologies and mathematical models ensure progress in the search and exploration of hydrocarbons. Contact and remote exploration methods and technologies have been outlined. Among contact ones, the field and analytical methods have been compared, and among remote ones, geomorphological and structurometric techniques and computer geodynamic simulation (CGDS) developed by the authors have been successively analyzed. Based on expert analysis, it has been concluded that remote-sensing methods are significantly cheaper (3-10 times). Geomorphological and structurometric remote-sensing methods are based on GPS images, i.e. they use the ‘top view’ technology. On the contrary, the CGDS technique implements the ‘view from inside’ technology based on a system of geodynamic models. It does not require preliminary fieldwork, and its application may be focused on poorly developed, complex areas such as the Arctic zone.
A general view of the model of risk assessment in the natural-technogenic system (NTS), considering the effects of natural and technogenic factors, is considered. The general solution of the system of differential equations describing the model is found. Two examples of the application of the model for the case of functionally similar natural and technogenic impacts are analyzed: (i) linear effects resulting in catastrophic seismic events; (ii) parabolic impacts that lead to creep, karst-deformation, subsidence and landslide processes. In addition, two new models of the dynamics of risks arising in a TCP under the influence of dangerous natural and technogenic factors are described. The presented models differ from each other in the types of effects: in the first model, they consider jointly parabolic (reflecting threats, the intensity of which gradually decreases with distance from the epicenter) and linear types of effects (reflecting suddenly arising threats), in the second model, the analysis of such types of impacts as parabolic and hyperbolic (reflecting threats whose intensity decreases sharply over time) is carried out. It is concluded that, on the basis of the considered models, it is possible to accurately describe almost any type of combined natural and technological impact and also make a special “atlas” of complex effects on the NTS for preventive “playing” of various situations and developing effective counteraction to emerging dangers from the departments of the Ministry of Emergencies and other structures.
Introduction. The complex combination of natural and technogenic factors that lead to dangerous threats to the health and life of the population, as well as to material values, creates a need to develop special mathematical models for risk assessment in the relevant territories. Herewith it is important to take into account the significant differences between these factors. The new areas of research are models that describe natural and technogenic risks using differential equations that reflect different types of functions. The article presents the development of this research area. Goals and objectives. The goal of the article is to create a model for risk assessment in natural and technical systems (PTS), based on taking into account the influences of different natural and technogenic factors on them. Objectives include justification, construction and practical implementation of the mathematical model of risk assessment in the form of differential equations system. Methods include interpretation of the considered influences on PTS in terms of risks and assessment of the dynamic interaction of natural and technogenic factors in the form of inhomogeneous differential equations. Results and discussion. Solutions for models of assessing complex natural and technogenic risks in relation to two cases that differ in NTS are found: functionally different external natural and technogenic influences on PTS, which are understood as their type, in which the effects of both natural and technogenic factors are described by different mathematical functions. Conclusions. The first model considers parabolic (reflecting threats whose intensity gradually decreases with distance from the epicenter) and linear types of influences (reflecting sudden threats). The second model considers parabolic and hyperbolic (reflecting threats, the intensity of which decreases sharply over time) types of influences. It is concluded that it is necessary to create a special computer album of complex influences on the PTS in order to prevent "replay" of various situations and develop the most effective response to emerging dangers from the EMERCOM units and other structures. Key words: model, assessment, natural and technogenic risks, functionally different influences, counteraction, EMERCOM units.
BIM is the rapidly growing technology of information support in design, development, construction and operation of various facilities. In terms of its capabilities to take into account various risk characteristics and the influence of components under study, this information model makes it possible at a higher qualitative level to justify economic and technological decisions during construction in the Arctic zone and to maintain a particular facility entire life cycle. This model is best suited to be introduced in this complex high-risk construction area. BIM technology makes it possible to operate with the most detailed information, when making investment decisions difficult under conditions of building in the Arctic zone. Systemic integration of the BIM technology capabilities with models of the geoinformation systems' geodynamic risks and technologies ensures design, construction and maintenance of modern buildings and facilities at the fundamentally new level of quality and safety assurance, as well as to monitor stability and safety thereof in relation to the Arctic conditions. Mathematical model of the deformation energy migration is presented to evaluate geodynamic stability in the construction areas. It is advisable to take into account geodynamic factors in information simulation using the mathematical model that describes construction area in the form of a system of nodes and of the geological medium tectonic fault abnormalities connecting them and represented in the aggregate in the form of the Kolmogorov system of differential equations
In this paper, we consider the stability problem for nonzero integral manifolds of a nonlinear, finite-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations whose right-hand side is a vector-valued function containing a parameter and periodic in an independent variable. We assume that the system possesses a trivial integral manifold for all values of the parameter and the corresponding linear subsystem does not possess the exponential dichotomy property. We find sufficient conditions for the existence of a nonzero integral manifold in a neighborhood of the equilibrium of the system and conditions for its stability or instability. For this purpose, based of the ideas of the Lyapunov method and the method of transform matrices, we construct operators that allow one to reduce the solution of this problem to the search for fixed points.
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