Atmospheric heat and moisture transfers from the North Atlantic make the main contribution to the Arctic warming in winter. The increase in transfer is associated with changes in atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere under the influence of the sea surface temperature (SST) in low latitudes, where the bulk of the heat influx from the Sun accumulated. The mechanism of influence includes the interaction between the circulation of the ocean and atmosphere, which enhances the oceanic heat influx into the Norwegian and Barents seas, and atmospheric transport to the Arctic. SST rises with participation of orbital-forced increase of the solar insolation. Changes in insolation are small, but their effect is enhanced by feedbacks between temperature, water vapour content and downward long-wave radiation in low latitudes. An increase in water inflow, heat and moisture transfers to the Atlantic Arctic lead to increase in air temperature, water vapour content, downward long-wave radiation, and a reduction of ice thickness growth and its extent in the Barents and Greenland Seas in winter.
Global climate models, focused on projecting anthropogenic warming, have not detected an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) at low latitudes comparable to the observed one. This appears to be one reason for the discrepancy between the model estimates of warming and reduction of the sea ice extent in the Arctic and the observed changes in the climate system. In previous studies, it was shown that short-term manifestations of the impact of low latitudes on the Arctic climate were identified in 2–3 weeks as a result of strengthening of atmospheric circulation patterns. In this paper, for the first time, a climatic relationship was established among an increase in SST, air temperature, and water vapor content at low latitudes, and a decrease in sea ice extent in the Arctic. ECMWF Re-Analysis data (ERA-Interim, ERA5), Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST), sea ice archives of the World Centers NSIDC (USA), and Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (Russia), observations of water temperature in the Kola section (33°30′ E), calculated sea ice parameters using the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute coupled ice-ocean circulation model (AARI–IOCM). Methods of multivariate correlation analysis, calculating spectra and coherence, and creating correlation graphs were used to obtain the results. For the first time, estimates of the effect of heat transport from low to high latitudes on climate change and sea ice extent in the Arctic over the past 40 years have been obtained, explaining a significant part of their variability. The increase in heat transport is affected by an increase in SST at low latitudes, where a significant part of the solar heat is accumulated. Due to the increase in SST, the amount of heat transported by the ocean and the atmosphere from low latitudes to the Arctic increases, leading to an increase in the air temperature, water vapor content, downward longwave radiation at high latitudes, and a decrease in the thickness and extent of winter sea ice. Potential topics include, but are not limited to: the role of heat and moisture transport in the Arctic warming, effect of SST at low latitudes on transports, linkage of warming in low latitudes and in shrinking of the Arctic sea ice.
Арк тический и антарк тический научно-исследовательский институт (Санкт-Петербург, Российская Федерация) Статья поступила в редакцию 16 апреля 2019 г.Глобальное потепление в Арк тике усиливается под влиянием роста атмосферного и океанского переносов тепла и влаги из низких широт, увеличения притока длинноволновой радиации к поверхности вследствие роста притока водяного пара зимой и усиления таяния и увеличения пространств открытой воды летом. Совместное влияние атмосферных и океанических притоков тепла из низких широт океана на приатлантическую Арк тику формирует предсказуемую часть межгодовой изменчивости температуры воздуха и морского ледяного покрова. Регрессионная модель прогноза этой части может обеспечить эффективный прогноз летней площади льда с заблаговременностью до нескольких десятилетий.Ключевые слова: Арк тика, климат, арк тическое усиление, переносы из низких широт, морской лед, предсказуемость. AbstractGlobal warming in the Arctic is intensified by an increase in the transfer of heat and moisture in the atmosphere and the ocean from low latitudes, an increase in long-wave radiation to the surface due to an increase in water vapor in winter, increased melting and open water in summer. The influx of water vapor through 70° N significantly affects water vapor content and air temperature in the cold part of the year. Summer is dominated by the influx of water vapor from the Arctic. The inflow of warm and saline water from the North Atlantic to the Barents and Greenland Seas makes up the bulk of variability of ice cover in the Arctic Ocean from December to June. The average temperature of water and air in the Atlantic Arctic includes a low-frequency oscillation (LFO), consisting of a trend and periodic (with a period of about 70 years) fluctuations. LFO is a predictable component of air temperature variability, which is closely related to the characteristics of sea ice cover. A regression model based on this relationship can provide an effective prediction of the summer ice cover in the Arctic for a decade or more.
Inter-decadal changes in the water layer of Atlantic origin and freshwater content (FWC) in the upper 100 m layer were traced jointly to assess the influence of inflows from the Atlantic on FWC changes based on oceanographic observations in the Arctic Basin for the 1960s -2010s. For this assessment, we used oceanographic data collected at the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) and the International Arctic Research Center (IARC). The AARI data for the decades of 1960s -1990s were obtained mainly at the North Pole drifting ice camps, in high-latitude aerial surveys in the 1970s, as well as in ship-based expeditions in the 1990s. The IARC database contains oceanographic measurements acquired using modern CTD (Conductivity -Temperature -Depth) systems starting from the 2000s. For the reconstruction of decadal fields of the depths of the upper and lower 0 °С isotherms and FWC in the 0-100 m layer in the periods with a relatively small number of УДК 551.46.062.5+465.47Citation: Alekseev G.V., Pnyushkov A.V., Smirnov A.V., Vyazilova A.E., Glok N.I. Influence of Atlantic inflow on the freshwater content in the upper layer of the Arctic basin. Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki.
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