The effect of water temperature anomalies at low latitudes of the ocean on Arctic climate variations and their predictability

Abstract

Арк тический и антарк тический научно-исследовательский институт (Санкт-Петербург, Российская Федерация) Статья поступила в редакцию 16 апреля 2019 г.Глобальное потепление в Арк тике усиливается под влиянием роста атмосферного и океанского переносов тепла и влаги из низких широт, увеличения притока длинноволновой радиации к поверхности вследствие роста притока водяного пара зимой и усиления таяния и увеличения пространств открытой воды летом. Совместное влияние атмосферных и океанических притоков тепла из низких широт океана на приатлантическую Арк тику формирует предсказуемую часть межгодовой изменчивости температуры воздуха и морского ледяного покрова. Регрессионная модель прогноза этой части может обеспечить эффективный прогноз летней площади льда с заблаговременностью до нескольких десятилетий.Ключевые слова: Арк тика, климат, арк тическое усиление, переносы из низких широт, морской лед, предсказуемость. AbstractGlobal warming in the Arctic is intensified by an increase in the transfer of heat and moisture in the atmosphere and the ocean from low latitudes, an increase in long-wave radiation to the surface due to an increase in water vapor in winter, increased melting and open water in summer. The influx of water vapor through 70° N significantly affects water vapor content and air temperature in the cold part of the year. Summer is dominated by the influx of water vapor from the Arctic. The inflow of warm and saline water from the North Atlantic to the Barents and Greenland Seas makes up the bulk of variability of ice cover in the Arctic Ocean from December to June. The average temperature of water and air in the Atlantic Arctic includes a low-frequency oscillation (LFO), consisting of a trend and periodic (with a period of about 70 years) fluctuations. LFO is a predictable component of air temperature variability, which is closely related to the characteristics of sea ice cover. A regression model based on this relationship can provide an effective prediction of the summer ice cover in the Arctic for a decade or more.

Integrated airborne investigation of the air composition over the Russian Sector of the Arctic

“…Methane can be transported to the Arctic Ocean from the surrounding land (Bozem et al,2019;Makosko, Matesheva, 2020) or produced in situ in the water column. The Arctic receives carbon-rich riverine influx as well as water masses from the more southern oceans, which carry additional microbes and bacteria (Alekseev et al, 2019). They, in turn, can produce some additional methane, which is then released into the atmosphere (Babin, 2020;Lewis et al, 2020).…”

Rise of Insolation of Low Latitudes Affects Arctic Warming

“…As a result, a slight long-term increase in insolation in spring and early summeris accompanied by a noticeableincrease in sea surface temperature, air temperature, water vapor content anddownward long-wave radiation in autumn, which ultimately affects warming in the Arctic in winter in 2-3years. [19][20][21] Thus, global warming develops with the participation of an increase in insolation of TOA at low latitudes and intensifies in the Arctic under the influence of atmospheric and oceanic transport of heat and moisture.Global climate models simulate ocean warming at low-latitudes insufficiently correct due to underestimation of rise in insolation of the top of the atmosphere and, thereby do not take into consideration one of thefactors of climate warming.…”