Influence of SST in Low Latitudes on the Arctic Warming and Sea Ice

Abstract

Global climate models, focused on projecting anthropogenic warming, have not detected an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) at low latitudes comparable to the observed one. This appears to be one reason for the discrepancy between the model estimates of warming and reduction of the sea ice extent in the Arctic and the observed changes in the climate system. In previous studies, it was shown that short-term manifestations of the impact of low latitudes on the Arctic climate were identified in 2–3 weeks as a result of strengthening of atmospheric circulation patterns. In this paper, for the first time, a climatic relationship was established among an increase in SST, air temperature, and water vapor content at low latitudes, and a decrease in sea ice extent in the Arctic. ECMWF Re-Analysis data (ERA-Interim, ERA5), Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST), sea ice archives of the World Centers NSIDC (USA), and Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (Russia), observations of water temperature in the Kola section (33°30′ E), calculated sea ice parameters using the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute coupled ice-ocean circulation model (AARI–IOCM). Methods of multivariate correlation analysis, calculating spectra and coherence, and creating correlation graphs were used to obtain the results. For the first time, estimates of the effect of heat transport from low to high latitudes on climate change and sea ice extent in the Arctic over the past 40 years have been obtained, explaining a significant part of their variability. The increase in heat transport is affected by an increase in SST at low latitudes, where a significant part of the solar heat is accumulated. Due to the increase in SST, the amount of heat transported by the ocean and the atmosphere from low latitudes to the Arctic increases, leading to an increase in the air temperature, water vapor content, downward longwave radiation at high latitudes, and a decrease in the thickness and extent of winter sea ice. Potential topics include, but are not limited to: the role of heat and moisture transport in the Arctic warming, effect of SST at low latitudes on transports, linkage of warming in low latitudes and in shrinking of the Arctic sea ice.

Effects of Climate Change on Chlorophyll a in the Barents Sea: A Long-Term Assessment

“…Clear climatic variations have been documented during the past decades in the northern hemisphere [47,[54][55][56]. The Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean have been warming since the end of 20 century [6,7,12,54].…”

Monitoring climate change in the marine Arctic

“…Еще более очевидна связь зимней температуры и ледовитости в сентябре при сопоставлении с суммой градусо-дней мороза (СГДМ) за октябрь-апрель: в СЛО коэффициент корреляции СГДМ и ледовитости в сентябре равен -0,87, в морях СМП --0,80. Причина этого «парадокса» кроется в зависимости между СГДМ и толщиной [19,20] или объемом льда [11], при уменьшении которых летнее сокращение ледяного покрова растет. На рис.…”

“…Изменения НДВР зимой в Арктике практически полностью зависят от изменений температуры воздуха и содержания водяного пара (СВП) в атмосфере, подверженных влиянию притоков из низких широт. Показано [11], что перенос тепла и влаги в Арктику увеличивается под влиянием повышения температуры поверхности океана, сопровождающегося ростом температуры воздуха и содержания водяного пара в атмосфере над океаном, а усилившаяся циркуляция…”

“…Значительное влияние на атмосферную циркуляцию и, следовательно, на атмосферный перенос тепла оказывают аномалии температуры поверх-ности океана (ТПО) [7][8][9]. Особенно велика роль аномалий температуры поверхности океана в низких широтах, поскольку здесь запасается основная часть притока тепла сверху от солнечной радиации и антропогенного форсинга [10][11][12].…”

Constraining CMIP6 Projections of an Ice‐Free Arctic Using a Weighting Scheme

“…Therefore, focusing on the same projected target (September SIE) as Knutti et al (2017), we considered both SIE and SIC to estimate the weights for each model member. Although SAT and SST are closely related to sea-ice variability (Alekseev et al, 2021;Screen & Deser, 2019;Senftleben et al, 2020;Wang et al, 2021), the two variables are not used in the weighting scheme because of their intense co-variation and their close relation to SIC, which may lead to overfitting in the weighting. Given that the dynamics are also crucial to sea-ice variability (Lukovich et al, 2021;Park et al, 2018;Ricker et al, 2021), we considered an additional climate variable, the summer (June-July-August, JJA) mean SLP, which can drive the variability of September Arctic sea ice (Ding et al, 2017(Ding et al, , 2019.…”