2021
DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182
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Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team

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Cited by 73 publications
(55 citation statements)
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References 49 publications
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“…Research focusing on COVID-19 and tourism has been published rapidly. Most of the studies shed light on the influence of the pandemic on economic growth ( Yang et al, 2020 ), society ( Qiu et al, 2020 ) and the recovery path ( Liu et al, 2021 ). In the health discipline, scholars investigated people's reaction to social distancing measures ( Teasdale et al, 2014 ) based on individual's risk perception to the pandemic but also their health ( Xie et al, 2020 ).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Research focusing on COVID-19 and tourism has been published rapidly. Most of the studies shed light on the influence of the pandemic on economic growth ( Yang et al, 2020 ), society ( Qiu et al, 2020 ) and the recovery path ( Liu et al, 2021 ). In the health discipline, scholars investigated people's reaction to social distancing measures ( Teasdale et al, 2014 ) based on individual's risk perception to the pandemic but also their health ( Xie et al, 2020 ).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The scenario planning technique typically includes a description of an initial situation, the identification of the key driving forces, and the design of the most probable future changes, accompanied, sometimes, by their probability of success. Scenario-based forecasting has been incorporated in previous tourism research in times of crises [29,33].…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The pandemic is giving rise to specific literature on its impact [23,24] on how companies in the hospitality sector have managed, and are managing, periods of crisis [25,26] and on the challenges for a new tourism in the post-COVID-19 risk scenario [27,28]. When external unpredictable shocks occur, more and new research is necessary [29] because accurate forecasting of the full scale of the impact on the tourism industry and market recovery is critical for strategic planning by tourist destinations and tourism-related businesses [30]. The profound impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global tourism activity has rendered statistical approaches on tourism demand forecasting obsolete because they cannot capture the impacts of global unanticipated events [31].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…This general observation indicates the strong ability of crisis severity data in improving the forecast accuracy of time-series models during the social unrest period. Although previous research has attempted to use the crisis severity to predict the tourism demand recovery from COVID-19 (Liu et al, 2021), this is the first study to empirically disclose the effectiveness of crisis severity on the improvement of forecasting accuracy during the crisis. The story is even more interesting in the forecasting results taking November as the test set.…”
Section: Crisis Severity and Occupancy Rate Forecastsmentioning
confidence: 99%