Projections of heat waves with high impact on human health in Europe

Amengual, A.; Homar, V.; Romero, R.; Brooks, Harold E.; Ramis, C.; Gordaliza, Marina; Alonso, Sergio

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.05.006

Cited by 105 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…As Twardosz and Kossowska-Cezak (2013) showed, currently, in Central and Eastern Europe, there is an increase in a number of extremely hot months, which were most frequently recorded in the first decade of the twenty-first century. According to the predictions, heat waves in the twenty-first century are going to be more frequent and more intense (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004;Koffi and Koffi 2008;Kürbis et al 2009;Pongracz et al 2013;Amengual et al 2014;Zacharias et al 2015).…”

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Warm spells in Northern Europe in relation to atmospheric circulation

Tomczyk

Piotrowski

Bednorz

2016

Theor Appl Climatol

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This study describes warm spells in Northern Europe and determines the synoptic situations that cause their occurrence. In this article, a relatively warm day was defined as a day when the maximum temperature exceeded the 95th annual percentile, and a warm spell (WS) was considered to be a sequence of at least five relatively warm days. In the analysed multiannual period and within the investigated area, 24 (Kallax) to 53 (Oslo) WSs were observed. The occurrence of WSs was mainly connected with positive anomalies of sea level pressure and a 500-hPa isobaric surface, displaying the presence of high-pressure systems. This occurrence was also accompanied by positive T850 anomalies.

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Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Warm spells in Northern Europe in relation to atmospheric circulation

Tomczyk

Piotrowski

Bednorz

2016

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…More than 70,000 additional deaths occurred in Europe during hot periods in summer 2003, in comparison to the reference period of 1998-2002 [13]. The combination of extreme daytime maximum temperatures and warm nocturnal temperatures is particularly hazardous [14]. Mortality can be up to three times higher during long, high-intensity heatwaves [15,16].…”

Section: High Temperature and Heatwavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other areas may experience temperature increases of up to 4-5 °C per heatwave day. The frequency and number of severe and extreme heatwave days are expected to increase by up to 45 days per summer by the late 21st century, and heatwaves may occur both earlier and later in the season, including late spring and early autumn, by 2071-2100 [14]. Highly urbanized areas are projected to be at increased risk from heat stress, compared with surrounding areas [28].…”

Section: High Temperature and Heatwavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Extreme temperatures are associated with increases in mortality [15][16][17]22,32] Mortality increases are associated with temperatures above a local comfort threshold [13,18] Observed morbidity Extreme temperature is associated with increases in morbidity [20,23,26] Morbidity indicators are associated with higher temperatures [24,25,33] Future projection Future expected extreme temperatures are expected to increase heat-related mortality [14] Future increases in temperature are estimated to increase health effects of temperatures above a comfort temperature [28,29,31,34] Projected effects of heatwaves and high temperature have economic costs [27,30] Other or multiple focus There is confounding by air pollution for heat and cold effects [35] Heat and cold, mortality and morbidity, observation and projection are relevant in Europe [19] Different population subgroups are at risk [36] 3.1.2. Low Temperature and Cold Spells Ten papers identified in this search addressed the health effects of low temperatures and cold spells.…”

Section: Observed Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

Wolf

Lyne

Martínez

et al. 2015

Climate

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Abstract:The evidence of observed health effects as well as projections of future health risks from climate variability and climate change is growing. This article summarizes new knowledge on these health risks generated since the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4) was published in 2007, with a specific focus on the 53 countries comprising the WHO European Region. Many studies on the effects of weather, climate variability, and climate change on health in the European Region have been published since 2007, increasing the level of certainty with regard to already known health threats. Exposures to temperature extremes, floods, storms, and wildfires have effects on cardiovascular and respiratory health. Climate-and weather-related health risks from worsening food and water safety and security, poor air quality, and ultraviolet radiation exposure as well as increasing allergic diseases, vector-and rodent-borne diseases, and other climate-sensitive health outcomes also warrant attention and policy action to protect human health.

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“…In addition, Los Angeles forecast's future HWs number will increase (12 to 70) during the climate period 2070-2099 [31], while fast heat waves duration and frequency change were detected in North America in the early decades of the 21st century [39]. In Europe, HW events were projected under the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario, showing a frequency increase to 40 days (2075-2094) and amplitude intensification up to 7 ∘ C per day [40]. On the other hand, heat waves projection in the IAR and the Caribbean region is very scarce, but it is expected to be as vulnerable as high latitudes regions due to intense hot day events [32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of Heat Waves Events in the Intra-Americas Region Using Multimodel Ensemble

Angeles-Malaspina

González-Cruz

Ramirez-Beltran

2018

Advances in Meteorology

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Significant accelerated warming of the Sea Surface Temperature of 0.15 ∘ C per decade was recently detected, which motivated the research for the present consequences and future projections on the heat index and heat waves in the intra-Americas region. Present records every six hours are retrieved from NCEP reanalysis to calculate heat waves changes. Heat index intensification has been detected in the region since 1998 and driven by surface pressure changes, sinking air enhancement, and warm/weaker cold advection. This regional warmer atmosphere leads to heat waves intensification with changes in both frequency and maximum amplitude distribution. Future projections using a multimodel ensemble mean for five global circulation models were used to project heat waves in the future under two scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Massive heat waves events were projected at the end of the 21st century, particularly in the RCP8.5 scenario. Consequently, the regional climate change in the current time and in the future will require special attention to mitigate the more intense and frequent heat waves impacts on human health, countries' economies, and energy demands in the IAR.

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Projections of heat waves with high impact on human health in Europe

Cited by 105 publications

References 44 publications

Warm spells in Northern Europe in relation to atmospheric circulation

Warm spells in Northern Europe in relation to atmospheric circulation

The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

Projections of Heat Waves Events in the Intra-Americas Region Using Multimodel Ensemble

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