[1] Earlier reports indicated some specific isolated regions exhibiting a paradoxical increase of extreme rainfall in spite of decrease in the totals. Here, we conduct a coherent study of the full-scale of daily rainfall categories over a relatively large subtropical region-the Mediterranean-in order to assess whether this paradoxical behavior is real and its extent. We show that the torrential rainfall in Italy exceeding 128 mm/d has increased percentage-wise by a factor of 4 during 1951 -1995 with strong peaks in El-Nino years. In Spain, extreme categories at both tails of the distribution (light: 0-4 mm/d and heavy/torrential: 64 mm/d and up) increased significantly. No significant trends were found in Israel and Cyprus. The consequent redistribution of the daily rainfall categories -torrential/heavy against the moderate/light intensities -is of utmost interest particularly in the semi-arid sub-tropical regions for purposes of water management, soil erosion and flash floods impacts. INDEX TERMS: 1854

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SUMMARYA small, quasi-tropical cyclone occurred on 12 September 1996 over the western Mediterranean. Intense convective activity over the region during this period also produced a tornado outbreak in the Balearic Islands and torrential precipitation over eastern mainland Spain.Mesoscale model runs properly simulate the cyclone formation and show convection and heavy precipitation following the cyclone trajectory during its eastward progression. A sensitivity study examining the upper-level dynamic forcing, latent-and sensible-heat uxes from the sea, and orography is conducted. A potential-vorticity (PV) inversion technique is used to reduce the amplitude of the upper-level trough in the model initial conditions. The results show that neither the orography nor the sensible-heat ux from the sea play a signi cant role during this particular cyclone development. Conversely, both the latent-heat ux and the upper-level trough are shown to be crucial for low-level cyclogenesis. Features common to hurricane-like polar lows are found for the cyclone, and an analysis of the precise role of the upper-level structures and the convective development is conducted.A factor-separation technique is used to determine the individual effects of the aforementioned factors, as well as their interaction. At the rst stage of the cyclogenesis, the upper-level PV anomaly enhanced the low-level circulation of the synoptic-scale low and enhanced the latent-heat ux from the sea. During its mature stage, the circulation associated with the small-scale cyclone enhanced the latent-heat ux from the sea, thereby helping to maintain the development of deep convection, and inducing further cyclone deepening by diabatic heating. This scenario has many similarities with the air-sea interaction instability mechanism. Thus, the joint action of the upper-level anomaly, as a spin-up agent, and the latent-heat ux, as a sustainer of convection, emerges as the primary factor for the genesis and evolution of the small quasi-tropical cyclone.

Projections of climate change effects for the System of Platja de Palma (SPdP) are derived using a novel statistical technique. Socioeconomic activities developed in this settlement are very closely linked to its climate. Any planning for socioeconomic opportunities in the mid-and long term must take into account the possible effects of climate change. To this aim, daily observed series of minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, relative humidity, cloud cover, and wind speed have been analyzed. For the climate projections, daily data generated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) have been used. To properly use RCM data at local scale, a quantile-quantile adjustment has been applied to the simulated regional projections. The method is based on detecting changes in the cumulative distribution functions between the recent past and successive time slices of the simulated climate and applying these, after calibration, to the recent past (observed) series. Results show an overall improvement in reproducing the present climate baseline when using calibrated series instead of raw RCM outputs, although the correction does not result in such clear improvement when dealing with very extreme rainfalls. Next, the corrected series are analyzed to quantify the climate change signal. An increase of the annual means for temperatures together with a decrease for the remaining variables is projected throughout the twenty-first century. Increases in weak and intense daily rainfalls and in high extremes for daily maximum temperature can also be expected. With this information at hand, the experts planning the future of SPdP can respond more effectively to the problem of local adaptation to climate change.