[1] Earlier reports indicated some specific isolated regions exhibiting a paradoxical increase of extreme rainfall in spite of decrease in the totals. Here, we conduct a coherent study of the full-scale of daily rainfall categories over a relatively large subtropical region-the Mediterranean-in order to assess whether this paradoxical behavior is real and its extent. We show that the torrential rainfall in Italy exceeding 128 mm/d has increased percentage-wise by a factor of 4 during 1951 -1995 with strong peaks in El-Nino years. In Spain, extreme categories at both tails of the distribution (light: 0-4 mm/d and heavy/torrential: 64 mm/d and up) increased significantly. No significant trends were found in Israel and Cyprus. The consequent redistribution of the daily rainfall categories -torrential/heavy against the moderate/light intensities -is of utmost interest particularly in the semi-arid sub-tropical regions for purposes of water management, soil erosion and flash floods impacts. INDEX TERMS: 1854

The relation between wind, latitude and daily migration speed along the entire migration route of white storks was analysed. Mean daily migration speed was calculated using satellite telemetry data for autumn and spring migration of white storks from their breeding grounds in Germany and Poland to wintering grounds in Africa and back. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data were used to systematically fit 850 mb wind vectors to daily migration speed along the migration route. White storks migrated significantly faster and had a shorter migration season in autumn (10 km/h) compared to spring (6.4 km/h). In autumn mean daily migration speed was significantly slower in Europe (8.0 km/h) than in the Middle East (11.1 km/h) and Africa (11.0 km/h). In spring mean daily migration speed was significantly faster in Africa (10.5 km/h) as birds left their wintering grounds than in the Middle East (4.3 km/h). Migration speed then increased in Europe (6.5 km/h) as birds approached their breeding grounds. In both spring and autumn tailwind (at 850mb) and latitude were found to be significant variables related to daily migration speed.

An evaluation of 23 models, participating in the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), in representing extreme precipitation indices (EPI), over the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) and the Fertile Crescent (FC), was performed. The models ensemble was then used to predict the EPIs evolution in the 21st century under (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Models' performance was determined with respect to gridded precipitation observations from the APHRODITE project. The ensemble mean was found to perform relatively well in capturing the EM steep precipitation gradient, the FC structure and the EPI trends in the observations period (1970–2000). Over the EM, CMIP5 models agree on a future decrease in the following three EPIs; total precipitation (TP), consecutive wet days, and number of wet days by the values of 20–35%, 10–20%, and 20–35%, respectively. In the FC, extremely wet days (P95) are expected to increase by approximately 25%, except for the south eastern coasts of the Mediterranean Sea, which show significant decreases in P95, particularly for RCP8.5 and at the end of the 21st century. Hence, while TP is expected to decrease, extreme precipitation is expected to increase, at least for the north‐eastern part of the FC. This will significantly influence agriculture and floods' potential in a region already suffering from political unrest. The changes in EPIs are related to changes in the synoptic patterns over the EM, especially the predicted changes in cyclones frequency and intensity in the 21st century, due to changes in storm tracks governed by the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the expected expansion of the Hadley Cell towards the poles in a warmer climate.

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