Projections of climate change effects for the System of Platja de Palma (SPdP) are derived using a novel statistical technique. Socioeconomic activities developed in this settlement are very closely linked to its climate. Any planning for socioeconomic opportunities in the mid-and long term must take into account the possible effects of climate change. To this aim, daily observed series of minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, relative humidity, cloud cover, and wind speed have been analyzed. For the climate projections, daily data generated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) have been used. To properly use RCM data at local scale, a quantile-quantile adjustment has been applied to the simulated regional projections. The method is based on detecting changes in the cumulative distribution functions between the recent past and successive time slices of the simulated climate and applying these, after calibration, to the recent past (observed) series. Results show an overall improvement in reproducing the present climate baseline when using calibrated series instead of raw RCM outputs, although the correction does not result in such clear improvement when dealing with very extreme rainfalls. Next, the corrected series are analyzed to quantify the climate change signal. An increase of the annual means for temperatures together with a decrease for the remaining variables is projected throughout the twenty-first century. Increases in weak and intense daily rainfalls and in high extremes for daily maximum temperature can also be expected. With this information at hand, the experts planning the future of SPdP can respond more effectively to the problem of local adaptation to climate change.
Synchronization of spatiotemporally chaotic extended systems is considered in the context of coupled one-dimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau equations (CGLE). A regime of coupled spatiotemporal intermittency (STI) is identified and described in terms of the space-time synchronized chaotic motion of localized structures. A quantitative measure of synchronization as a function of coupling parameter is given through distribution functions and information measures. The coupled STI regime is shown to disappear into regular dynamics for situations of strong coupling when localized structures become unstable, hence a description in terms of a single CGLE is not appropriate. [S0031-9007(97) [2]. The characterization of low-dimensional chaos is now a mature subject with well established techniques, including techniques of chaos control. In this context, the demonstration that the familiar phenomenon of synchronization of two regular oscillators [3] by a weak coupling can also be displayed by chaotic oscillators is an important new idea. This conceptual development has opened a new avenue of research with interesting practical implications. Chaos in extended systems is a much less mature subject, and many investigations are still at the level of classifying different types of behavior. Concepts and methods of statistical mechanics are commonly invoked in terms of "phase diagrams" and transitions among different "phases" of behavior [4][5][6][7]. Still, the possibility of a synchronized behavior of spatially extended systems in a spatiotemporal disordered phase is an appealing idea that we address in this Letter. More specifically, we will consider an extended one-dimensional system in a chaotic regime known as spatiotemporal intermittency (STI) [5], and we will characterize a coupled STI regime.By synchronization of two chaotic oscillators O 1 and O 2 , it is meant in a strict sense that plotting the time series O 1 ͑t i ͒ vs O 2 ͑t i ͒ one obtains a straight line of unit slope. For many practical applications, synchronization of chaotic oscillations calls for an expanded framework and the concept of "generalized synchronization" has been introduced [8,9] as the appearance of a functional dependence between the two time series. In this context, we understand here by synchronization the situation in which O 1 ͑t i ͒ becomes a given known function of O 2 ͑t i ͒. Transferring these concepts to spatially extended systems, we search for correlations between the space͑x i ͒-time͑t j ͒ series of two variables O 1 ͑x i , t j ͒ and O 2 ͑x i , t j ͒. The synchronization of O 1 and O 2 occurs when these two space-time series become functionally dependent. This idea is different from the one much studied in the context of coupled map models in which the coupling and emerging correlations are among spatially coupled oscillators. Here we search for correlations of two variables at the same space-time point.Our study has been carried out in the context of complex Ginzburg-Landau Equations (CGLE) which give a prototype example of chaoti...
During the early morning of 10 June 2000, the Catalonia region was affected by a hazardous convective rainfall episode that produced a large increase on flow regimes in many internal catchments of the region. The present modeling study is focused upon the Llobregat basin, the biggest internal catchment with a drainage area of 5040 km 2 . The first objective of the study is the characterization of the watershed hydrological response to this flash-flood event based on rain gauge data and the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) runoff model. The HEC-HMS model has been calibrated using five episodes of similar torrential characteristics, and the effects of the spatial segmentation of the basin and of the temporal scale of the input rainfall field have been examined. These kinds of episodes present short recurrence intervals in Mediterranean Spain, and the use of mesoscale forecast driven runoff simulation systems for increasing the lead times of the emergency management procedures is a valuable issue to explore. The second objective uses NCEP and ECMWF analyses to initialize the nonhydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) in order to simulate the 10 June 2000 flash-flood episode with appropriate space and time scales to force the runoff model. The final objective analyzes the sensitivity of the catchment's response to the spatial and temporal uncertainty of the rainfall pattern based on an ensemble of perturbed MM5 simulations. MM5 perturbations are introduced through small shifts and changes in intensity of the precursor upper-level synoptic-scale trough. Main results indicate that 1) an optimum configuration of the runoff model can be clearly defined that best adjusts the simulated basin's hydrological response to observed peak discharges, their timing, and total volume; 2) the MM5-control driven runoff simulation shows a reasonable reproduction of the observed discharge at the basin's outlet and appears to be a suitable tool for the hydrometeorological forecasting of flash floods in the Llobregat basin as a whole; and 3) the ensemble of perturbed runoff simulations does not exhibit any relevant degradation of the forecast skill, and some of the members even outperform the control experiment at different stream gauge locations. That is, the catchment is relatively insensitive to rainfall forecast errors of a few tenths of kilometers and no more than 1-2 h.
We consider phase turbulent regimes with nonzero winding number in the one-dimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau equation. We find that phase turbulent states with winding number larger than a critical one are only transients and decay to states within a range of allowed winding numbers. The analogy with the Eckhaus instability for nonturbulent waves is stressed. The transition from phase to defect turbulence is interpreted as an ergodicity breaking transition that occurs when the range of allowed winding numbers vanishes. We explain the states reached at long times in terms of three basic states, namely, quasiperiodic states, frozen turbulence states, and riding turbulence states. Justification and some insight into them are obtained from an analysis of a phase equation for nonzero winding number: Rigidly moving solutions of this equation, which correspond to quasiperiodic and frozen turbulence states, are understood in terms of periodic and chaotic solutions of an associated system of ordinary differential equations. A short report of some of our results has already been published ͓R. Montagne et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 77, 267 ͑1996͔͒.
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