The annual precipitation pattern in the Caribbean basin shows a distinct bimodal behavior, where the first mode is called the Early Rainfall Season (April–July), and the second mode the Late Rainfall Season (August–November). The brief, relatively dry, period in July is usually referred to as the midsummer drought (MSD). It has been hypothesized that the migration through the Caribbean basin of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and increases in aerosols due to the passing of Saharan Dust across the Caribbean in the summer months may result in the observed precipitation pattern. This paper focuses on determining the origins of the Caribbean MSD. Multiple regression analysis was carried‐out to determine if the ITCZ, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the Vertical Wind Shear (VWS), and different atmospheric particle (AP) concentrations transported from northern Africa correlate with the Caribbean MSD. It is shown that the ITCZ and NAO are weakly correlated with the Caribbean precipitation variability; however, the VWS and aerosol particles revealed an important contribution to rainfall during the summer months. Numerical experiments were then performed to quantify the influence of different VWS scenarios and different AP concentrations on the Caribbean precipitation bimodal behavior. The numerical approach uses the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System coupled with a new cloud microphysics module that allows discrimination between small and giant particles, as well as Cloud Concentration Nuclei (CCN) and Giant CCN activation. These numerical experiments support the statistical result that the VWS and the AP influence the rainfall production and pattern during the MSD. Results indicate that cloud microphysics play an important role in producing the observed climatological bimodal pattern, while variations in large‐scale atmospheric dynamics (like the VWS) help explain variations in the strength and pattern of the bimodal events and behavior.
Significant accelerated warming of the Sea Surface Temperature of 0.15 ∘ C per decade was recently detected, which motivated the research for the present consequences and future projections on the heat index and heat waves in the intra-Americas region. Present records every six hours are retrieved from NCEP reanalysis to calculate heat waves changes. Heat index intensification has been detected in the region since 1998 and driven by surface pressure changes, sinking air enhancement, and warm/weaker cold advection. This regional warmer atmosphere leads to heat waves intensification with changes in both frequency and maximum amplitude distribution. Future projections using a multimodel ensemble mean for five global circulation models were used to project heat waves in the future under two scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Massive heat waves events were projected at the end of the 21st century, particularly in the RCP8.5 scenario. Consequently, the regional climate change in the current time and in the future will require special attention to mitigate the more intense and frequent heat waves impacts on human health, countries' economies, and energy demands in the IAR.
Hourly data collected from ground stations were used to study the maximum daytime heat index Hi in the Mesoamerica and Caribbean Sea (MAC) region for a 35-yr period (1980–2014). Observations of Hi revealed larger values during the rainy season and smaller values during the dry season. The Hi climatology exhibits the largest values in Mesoamerica, followed by the Greater Antilles and then by the Lesser Antilles. The trend in Hi indicates a notable increasing pattern of 0.05°C yr−1 (0.10°F yr−1), and the trends are more prominent in Mesoamerica than in Caribbean countries. This work also includes the analysis of heat index extreme events (HIEE). Usually the extreme values of the heat index are used for advising heat warning events, and it was found that 45 HIEEs occurred during the studied period. The average duration of HIEE was 2.4 days, and the average relative intensity (excess over the threshold) was 2.4°C (4.3°F). It was found that 82% of HIEE lasted 2 or 2.5 days and 80% exhibited relative intensity of 3°C (5.4°F) or less. It was also found that the frequency of extreme events has intensified since 1991, with the highest incidences occurring in 1995, 1998, 2005 and 2010, and these years coincide with the cool phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Therefore, the occurrences of HIEE in the MAC region appear to be at least partially influenced by ENSO episodes.
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