Pluralistic backcasting: Integrating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy

Tuominen, Anu; Tapio, Petri; Varho, Vilja; Järvi, Tuuli; Banister, David

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2014.04.014

Cited by 83 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…There has been extensive research on the measures available for the mitigation of CO 2 e emissions from the road transport sector [14][15][16][17][18]. Many of these measures are well developed and in operation in various countries throughout the world.…”

Section: Mitigation Measures and Assessment Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain

Alsabbagh

Siu

Guehnemann

et al. 2017

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

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Integrated approach to the assessment of CO 2 e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain AbstractThe transport sector is one of the fastest-growing energy-consuming sectors in the world and it contributes greatly to emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). In Bahrain, CO 2 e emissions from the transport sector grew by an average of 8% annually between 1994 and 2006. The aim of this research was to develop an integrated approach to assess the measures adopted to reduce CO 2 e emissions by the transport sector within the context of climate change mitigation. This approach used the multi-criteria analysis methodology of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to embed conventional assessment methods and a participatory approach. Three extensions to the original AHP methodology were developed: multi-AHP models, scenario packaging, and the examination of the plausibility of the results. The AHP results showed that certain fuel economy standards achieved the highest scores against five qualitative and quantitative criteria. Using socially and politically acceptable options, an integrated approach to CO 2 e mitigation could achieve a reduction in emissions of around 22% by 2030 (compared with 2010), at a cost of USD 112 per metric tonne of avoided CO 2 e emissions. Results from surveys of policymakers, experts, and the general public indicated that the outcomes of scenario packaging were plausible. The contributions of this research are two-fold. First, for the first time in Bahrain, the preferences of the general public have been considered and integrated with both the preferences of policymakers and experts and the results obtained from conventional assessment methods. Second, a structured approach for the integration of different assessment methods, transferable to other contexts, was developed and examined. Furthermore, multi-AHP models were introduced that can reflect the preferences of different concerned groups. Applications of this approach include 3 assessment of the implementation of mitigation measures that could affect a number of concerned groups, decision making in energy-consuming sectors, and development of mitigation policy packages.

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Section: Mitigation Measures and Assessment Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain

Alsabbagh

Siu

Guehnemann

et al. 2017

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

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“…In addition, the proposed approach is based on one normative vision. The backcasting approach is traditionally based on one normative vision, but multiple visions can also be used to explore different future alternatives [72]. Such a vision is prescriptive by focusing on what a smart sustainable city should be.…”

Section: Premises and Assumptions Underlying The Synthesismentioning

confidence: 99%

Backcasting in futures studies: a synthesized scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development

Bibri

2018

Eur J Futures Res

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Backcasting as a scholarly and planning approach is increasingly used in futures studies in fields related to urban sustainability as an alternative to traditional planning approaches and a formal element of future strategic initiatives. It is viewed as a natural step in operationalizing sustainable development within different societal spheres. As a holistic urban development strategy, smart sustainable cities represent a manifestation of sustainable development as a process of change and a strategic approach to achieving the long-term goals of sustainability. Achieving smart sustainable cities represents an instance of urban sustainability, a concept that refers to a desired state in which a city strives to retain the balance of socio-ecological system through sustainable development as a desired trajectory. This long-term goal requires fostering linkages between scientific and social research, technological innovations, institutional practices, and policy design and planning in relevance to urban sustainability. It also requires a long-term vision, a transdisciplinary approach, and a system-oriented perspective on addressing environmental, economic, and social issues. These requirements are at the core of backcasting as an approach to futures studies. Backcasting is a special kind of scenario methodology to develop future models for smart sustainable city as a planning tool for urban sustainability. Goal-oriented backcasting approaches declare long-range targets that lie quite far in the future. Visionary images of a long-term future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards achieving the goals of urban sustainability. The backcasting approach is found to be well-suited for long-term urban sustainability solutions due to its normative, goal-oriented, and problem-solving character. Also, it is particularly useful when dealing with complex problems and transitions, the current trends are part of the problem, and different directions of development can be allowed given the wide scope and long time horizon considered. A number of recent futures studies using backcasting have underlined the efficacy of this scholarly and planning approach in terms of indicating policy pathway for sustainability transitions and thus supporting policymakers and facilitating and guiding their actions. However, as there are a number of backcasting approaches used in different domains, and the backcasting framework is adaptive and contextual in nature, it is deemed highly relevant and useful to devise a scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development. This paper has a fourfold purpose. It aims (1) to provide a comparative account of the most commonly applied approaches in futures studies dealing with technology and sustainability (forecasting and backcasting); (2) to review the existing backcasting methodologies and discuss the relevance of their use in terms of their steps and guiding questions in analyzing strategic smart sustainable city development as an area that is at the intersection o...

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“…Some of them focus on developing a method to design an "ideal" policy package. They usually propose various potential combinations of policy measures as a package and examine their effectiveness and acceptance based on the pre-evaluation from experts, policy-makers, or travellers through interviews and questionnaires [37]. In addition, Taeihagh designs a network-centric method with a computational approach for analysing the interactions of policy Energies 2018, 11, 1126 4 of 22 measures, to analyse and predict the development of packaging [38].…”

Section: Tdm Packagingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transport Demand Management Policy Integration in Chinese Cities: A Proposed Analysis of Its Effects

2018

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Transport demand management (TDM) measures are widely regarded as essential tools to deal with traffic issues. Their effectiveness has been under scrutiny. Packaging of TDM measures has recently received much attention from researchers and governments because it can achieve more complex policy goals and resolve the negative effects of single TDM measures. Many studies have examined the concept of policy packaging, the ideal packaging process, and potential barriers at the theoretical level. However, the way TDM packaging as a concept works in a real-world context has received little attention. Additionally, there is little methodology to analyse its characteristics from a dynamic and historical perspective. Therefore, this study provides a methodology for analysing TDM packaging in four dimensions (i.e., density, classification, interaction, and time). These dimensions respectively reveal how many and what kind of TDM measures have been implemented, how they interact in a package, and how these characteristics change over time. We examine this methodology through comparative case studies based on policy document analysis in two Chinese cities, Dalian and Shenzhen, both of which adopt a large number of TDM measures. The results show that this methodology successfully reveals the characteristics of case cities: both tend to put more TDM measures into the transport policy package to deal with traffic issues, but the package in Shenzhen is more integrative than that in Dalian. We also find that with the integration of packaging increasing, transport systems are becoming more sustainable, and Shenzhen performs better in this regard than Dalian. This methodology can be used to analyse policy packaging in broader areas and to examine its influence on transport systems in more case studies in future research.

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Pluralistic backcasting: Integrating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy

Cited by 83 publications

References 41 publications

Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain

Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain

Backcasting in futures studies: a synthesized scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development

Transport Demand Management Policy Integration in Chinese Cities: A Proposed Analysis of Its Effects

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