Backcasting in futures studies: a synthesized scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development

Bibri, Simon Elias

doi:10.1186/s40309-018-0142-z

Cited by 89 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 54 publications

(149 reference statements)

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“…scenario planning, forecasting and backcasting studies). However, while scenario planning and forecasting focus on answering the question of what could or will (most likely) happen, backcasting tries to answer what should happen (or what is preferable) (Banister et al, 2007;Bribi, 2018;Vergragt and Quist, 2011;Wade, 2012).…”

Section: Backcasting Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Parking futures: Preparing European cities for the advent of automated vehicles

2020

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The introduction of automated vehicles (AVs) is a virtual certainty. Much less certain is the timing of their introduction and how rapid the transition to full automation will be. Various governments are already working to facilitate this shift by, for example, amending and elaborating regulations to support the introduction of AVs, or supporting tests in different urban environments. Meanwhile, urban and regional planners and decisionmakers are still grappling with the uncertainties and differing opinions about the possible impacts of AVs on land-use changes and location choices, particularly in relation to the space available for vehicles, both moving (i.e. roadspace) and stationary (i.e. parking space). This paper uses a backcasting approach to identify critical policy decisions and measures to be taken before the implementation of AVs, so as to achieve a more desirable, attractive and high-quality city. These policy measures primarily relate to the reuse and reallocation of parking and roadspace. Two strategic decisions are found to be essential to meet the major goals of sustainable and liveable cities: a clear commitment to a shared mobility and the delimitation of Core Attractive Mixed-use Spaces (CAMS). In order to deliver these desired urbanisation patterns, a set of three policy paths, involving eight policy packages, is proposed for the next 20-30 years. This article provides urban and regional decision-makers with examples of interventions that can be implemented beyond and during the implementation of AVs. Despite being aware of the crucial relevance of AVs, few land-use or transport plans have considered their effects on future urban development in any detail. 1 According to Cavoli et al. (2017), US urban policymakers and planners stated that the uncertainties associated with AV deployment and use are the main reason for their disregard in planning schemes. Despite these uncertainties, attention to the issue is crucial, in order to avoid unwanted effects (Cohen and Cavoli, 2019). Various authors emphasize the urgent need to identify desirable visions for future urban environments in the long term (e.g. Begg, 2014;

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Section: Backcasting Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Parking futures: Preparing European cities for the advent of automated vehicles

2020

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“…Backcasting studies must reflect solutions to a specified social problem in the broader sense [29]. Bibri [10] concludes that the backcasting approach is found to be well-suited for long-term urban sustainability problems and solutions due to its normative, goal-oriented, and problem-solving character. Generally, as argued by Dreborg [29], backcasting is particularly useful when:…”

Section: Background Of the Futures Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bibri [10] has recently conducted a comprehensive study on futures studies and related approaches. Its main focus is on backcasting as a scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development.…”

Section: Background Of the Futures Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Generating a vision for smart sustainable cities of the future: a scholarly backcasting approach

Bibri

Krogstie

2019

Eur J Futures Res

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Sustainable cities have been the leading global paradigm of urbanism. Undoubtedly, sustainable development has, since its widespread diffusion in the early 1990s, positively influenced city planning and development. This pertains to the immense opportunities that have been explored and the enormous benefits that have been realized in relation to sustainable urban forms, especially compact cities and eco-cities. However, such forms are still associated with a number of problems, issues, and challenges. This mainly involves the question of how they should be monitored, understood, analyzed, and planned to improve, advance, and maintain their contribution to sustainability and thus to overcome the kind of wicked problems, unsettled issues, and complex challenges they embody. This in turn brings us to the current question related to the weak connection between and the extreme fragmentation of sustainable cities and smart cities as approaches and landscapes, respectively, despite the proven role of advanced ICT, coupled with the untapped potential of big data technology and its novel applications, in supporting sustainable cities as to enhancing and optimizing their performance under what is labeled "smart sustainable cities." In this respect, there has recently been a conscious push for sustainable cities to become smart and thus more sustainable by particularly embracing what big data technology and its novel applications has to offer in the hopes of reaching the optimal level of sustainability. In the meantime, we are in the midst of an expansion of time horizons in city planning and development. In this context, sustainable cities across the globe have adopted ambitious smart goals that extend far into the future. Essentially, there are multiple visions of, and pathways to achieving, smart sustainable cities based on how they can be conceptualized and operationalized. The aim of this paper is to generate a vision for smart sustainable cities of the future by answering the 6 guiding questions for step 3 of the futures study being conducted. This study aims to analyze, investigate, and develop a novel model for smart sustainable cities of the future using backcasting as a scholarly approach. It involves a series of papers of which this paper is the second one, following the earlier papers with steps 1 and 2. Visionary images of a long-term future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards achieving the long-term goals of sustainability. The proposed model is believed to be the first of its kind and thus has not been, to the best of one's knowledge, produced, nor is it being currently investigated, elsewhere.

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“…Backcasting studies must reflect solutions to a specified social problem in the broader sense (Dreborg 1996). Bibri (2018d) concludes that backcasting approach is found to be well-suited for long-term urban sustainability problems and solutions due to its normative, goal-oriented, and problem-solving character. Generally, as argued by Dreborg (1996), backcasting is particularly useful when:…”

Section: A Backcasting Approach To Strategic Smart Sustainable City Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

A scholarly backcasting approach to a novel model for smart sustainable cities of the future: strategic problem orientation

Bibri

Krogstie

2019

City Territ Archit

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Sustainable cities have, since the early 1990s, been the leading global paradigm of urban planning and development thanks to the different models of sustainable urban form proposed as new frameworks for redesigning and restructuring urban places to achieve sustainability. Indeed, huge advances in some areas of sustainability knowledge and a multitude of exemplary practical initiatives have been realized, thereby raising the profile of sustainable cities worldwide. The change is still inspiring and the challenge continues to induce scholars and practitioners to enhance existing, and propose new, models. Especially, sustainable urban forms have been problematic, whether in theory or practice, so is yet knowing to what extent progress has been made towards sustainable cities. They are associated with a number of problems, issues, and challenges and thus much more needs to be done considering the very fragmented, conflicting picture that arises of change on the ground in the face of the expanding urbanization. This involves the question of how they should be monitored, understood, analyzed, planned, and even integrated so as to improve, advance, and maintain their contribution to sustainability. This brings us to the issue of sustainable cities and smart cities being extremely fragmented as landscapes and weakly connected as approaches, despite the proven role and untapped potential of advanced ICT, especially big data technology, for advancing sustainability under what is labeled 'smart sustainable cities. ' Essentially, there are multiple visions of, and pathways to achieving, such cities, which depends on how they can be conceptualized. This paper details the two parts of strategic problem orientation by answering the guiding questions for Steps 1 and 2 of the futures study being conducted. This study aims to analyze, investigate, and develop a novel model for smart sustainable cities of the future using backcasting as a scholarly approach. It involves a series of papers of which this paper is the first one. We argue that a deeper understanding of the multi-faceted processes of change or the interplay between social, technological, and scientific solutions is required to achieve more sustainable cities. Visionary images of a long-term future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards achieving the long-term goals of sustainability. The proposed model is believed to be the first of its kind and thus has not been, to the best of one's knowledge, produced, nor is it being currently investigated, elsewhere.

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Backcasting in futures studies: a synthesized scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development

Cited by 89 publications

References 54 publications

Parking futures: Preparing European cities for the advent of automated vehicles

Parking futures: Preparing European cities for the advent of automated vehicles

Generating a vision for smart sustainable cities of the future: a scholarly backcasting approach

A scholarly backcasting approach to a novel model for smart sustainable cities of the future: strategic problem orientation

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