Integrated approach to the assessment of CO 2 e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain AbstractThe transport sector is one of the fastest-growing energy-consuming sectors in the world and it contributes greatly to emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). In Bahrain, CO 2 e emissions from the transport sector grew by an average of 8% annually between 1994 and 2006. The aim of this research was to develop an integrated approach to assess the measures adopted to reduce CO 2 e emissions by the transport sector within the context of climate change mitigation. This approach used the multi-criteria analysis methodology of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to embed conventional assessment methods and a participatory approach. Three extensions to the original AHP methodology were developed: multi-AHP models, scenario packaging, and the examination of the plausibility of the results. The AHP results showed that certain fuel economy standards achieved the highest scores against five qualitative and quantitative criteria. Using socially and politically acceptable options, an integrated approach to CO 2 e mitigation could achieve a reduction in emissions of around 22% by 2030 (compared with 2010), at a cost of USD 112 per metric tonne of avoided CO 2 e emissions. Results from surveys of policymakers, experts, and the general public indicated that the outcomes of scenario packaging were plausible. The contributions of this research are two-fold. First, for the first time in Bahrain, the preferences of the general public have been considered and integrated with both the preferences of policymakers and experts and the results obtained from conventional assessment methods. Second, a structured approach for the integration of different assessment methods, transferable to other contexts, was developed and examined. Furthermore, multi-AHP models were introduced that can reflect the preferences of different concerned groups. Applications of this approach include 3 assessment of the implementation of mitigation measures that could affect a number of concerned groups, decision making in energy-consuming sectors, and development of mitigation policy packages.

There is much optimism that the 2015 Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention will yield an agreement on mitigation of climate change, to become effective in 2020. In this context, Bahrain represents a developing country with insufficient data to assess mitigation opportunities: its per capita carbon emissions rank among the world's highest, yet there has been no research on the reduction potential of its rapidly growing transport sector. We examine this reduction potential and the costs of various mitigation measures and, further, explore barriers and the view of policymakers and experts. Potential benefits of combined mitigation scenarios are also identified based on their acceptability. We adopt a modified participatory method to develop the scenarios, using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) modeling system, and find that an integrated policy approach can deliver a 23% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, costing 108 United States dollars per avoided metric tonne, with politically acceptable scenarios.Better performance, however, would require less acceptable approaches. These findings are 2 significant for decision making in Bahrain and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries; national target preparation and the setting of fuel economy standards should be begun promptly. We offer lessons to other developing countries on the timely regulation of technical specifications and numbers of passenger vehicles. Participatory approaches to the assessment of mitigation measures can advance environmentally effective, economically feasible and politically acceptable scenarios. The global community can use these results to provide necessary technical and financial assistance to developing countries.