Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain

Abstract

Integrated approach to the assessment of CO 2 e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain AbstractThe transport sector is one of the fastest-growing energy-consuming sectors in the world and it contributes greatly to emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). In Bahrain, CO 2 e emissions from the transport sector grew by an average of 8% annually between 1994 and 2006. The aim of this research was to develop an integrated approach to assess the measures adopted to reduce CO 2 e emissions by the transport sector within the context of climate change mitigation. This approach used the multi-criteria analysis methodology of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to embed conventional assessment methods and a participatory approach. Three extensions to the original AHP methodology were developed: multi-AHP models, scenario packaging, and the examination of the plausibility of the results. The AHP results showed that certain fuel economy standards achieved the highest scores against five qualitative and quantitative criteria. Using socially and politically acceptable options, an integrated approach to CO 2 e mitigation could achieve a reduction in emissions of around 22% by 2030 (compared with 2010), at a cost of USD 112 per metric tonne of avoided CO 2 e emissions. Results from surveys of policymakers, experts, and the general public indicated that the outcomes of scenario packaging were plausible. The contributions of this research are two-fold. First, for the first time in Bahrain, the preferences of the general public have been considered and integrated with both the preferences of policymakers and experts and the results obtained from conventional assessment methods. Second, a structured approach for the integration of different assessment methods, transferable to other contexts, was developed and examined. Furthermore, multi-AHP models were introduced that can reflect the preferences of different concerned groups. Applications of this approach include 3 assessment of the implementation of mitigation measures that could affect a number of concerned groups, decision making in energy-consuming sectors, and development of mitigation policy packages.

Social Learning and the Mitigation of Transport CO2 Emissions

“…Subsequently, the extent to which social learning influenced the decision-making process was assessed. Data were input into a deliberative decision-making model and results were compared with those obtained from a previously developed participative model [34] that lacked a social learning objective. Details on the applied methodology are provided in Figure 1.…”

“…Almost identical questionnaires that were used for the participative decision-making model applied in earlier studies [34,35] were applied for this study. This enabled comparisons to be made between the results of the deliberative and participative models.…”

“…The results from this model were compared to those of a participative decision-making model developed in [34] (see Figure 3). These models, which were based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) methodology, concurrently assessed different scenarios for the same mitigation measure [34].…”

“…The results from this model were compared to those of a participative decision-making model developed in [34] (see Figure 3). These models, which were based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) methodology, concurrently assessed different scenarios for the same mitigation measure [34]. The multiple models for Bahrain differed with respect to a single mitigation measure: annual vehicle registration fees based on CO 2 emissions, entailing three possible alternative scenarios [34].…”

“…These models, which were based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) methodology, concurrently assessed different scenarios for the same mitigation measure [34]. The multiple models for Bahrain differed with respect to a single mitigation measure: annual vehicle registration fees based on CO 2 emissions, entailing three possible alternative scenarios [34]. The first scenario, designed by the author (the original registration fee (RF) scenario), assumed a maximum annual fee of USD 600, whereas the second and the third scenarios assumed lower maximum fees of USD 190 and 100 (RF 190 scenario and RF 100 scenario), respectively, as suggested by stakeholders (see Table 2).…”