Industrial innovation and infrastructure as drivers of change in the Canadian boreal zone<sup>1</sup>

Musetta‐Lambert, Jordan L.; Enanga, E. M.; Teichert, Sonja; Creed, Irena F.; Kidd, Karen A.; Kreutzweiser, David P.; Sibley, Paul K.

doi:10.1139/er-2018-0056

Cited by 20 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…As part of a series called Boreal 2050 Project , we have chosen to focus on the responses of ecosystem components that are tightly linked to multiple drivers of change in the boreal that interact to shape the socio-ecological sustainability of this region (see Boreal 2050 Project overview in . These drivers of change include demand for provisioning ecosystem services (Erdozain et al 2018), demand for nonprovisioning ecosystem services (Lamothe et al 2018), governance and geopolitics (Fuss et al 2018), demographics and social values (Nitoslawski et al 2018), and industrial innovation and infrastructure (Musetta-Lambert et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

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Global anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and hazardous air pollutants have produced broad yet regionally disparate changes in climatic conditions and pollutant deposition in the Canadian boreal zone (the boreal). Adapting boreal resource management to atmospheric change requires a holistic understanding and awareness of the ongoing and future responses of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in this vast, heterogeneous landscape. To integrate existing knowledge of and generate new insights from the broad-scale impacts of atmospheric change, we first describe historical and present trends (∼1980–2015) in temperature, precipitation, deposition of hazardous air pollutants, and atmospheric-mediated natural disturbance regimes in this region. We then examine their associations with ecosystem condition and productivity, biological diversity, soil and water, and the carbon budget. These associations vary considerably among ecozones and likely undergo further changes under the emerging risks of atmospheric change. We highlight the urgent need to establish long-term, boreal-wide monitoring for many key components of freshwater ecosystems to better understand and project the influences of atmospheric change on boreal water resources. We also formulate three divergent future scenarios of boreal ecosystems in 2050. Our scenario analysis reveals multiple undesirable changes in boreal ecosystem structure and functioning with more variable atmospheric conditions and frequent land disturbances, while continuing business-as-usual management of natural resources. It is possible, though challenging, to reduce unwanted consequences to ecosystems through management regimes focussed on socio-ecological sustainability and developing resilient infrastructure and adaptive resource-management strategies. We emphasize the need for proactive actions and improved foresight for all sectors of society to collaborate, innovate, and invest in anticipation of impending global atmospheric change, without which the boreal zone will face a dim future.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

et al. 2019

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“…To address the challenge of anticipating future demand for boreal PrES, we first describe the current capacity of the boreal to provide PrES as well as the evolution of demand for boreal PrES in the past 30 years. We then explore how PrES in the boreal are affected by and interact with other drivers of change as defined in the Boreal 2050 project, including atmospheric change (Yeung et al 2018), demand for non-PrES (Lamothe et al 2018), demographics and societal values (Nitoslawski et al in 2018), governance and geopolitics (Fuss et al 2018), and industrial innovation and infrastructure (Musetta-Lambert et al 2018). Finally, we use this information to develop three scenarios, a set of equally likely but diverging future stories for PrES for the boreal in the year 2050.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demand for provisioning ecosystem services as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

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The Canadian boreal zone provides extractive goods and services (provisioning ecosystem services (PrES)) to domestic and global markets and makes a significant contribution to the Canadian economy. The intensity and location of these extractive activities, however, may positively or negatively affect the availability of other benefits that the Canadian and global society receive from the boreal. Where PrES compete, managing these activities along with their impacts to boreal ecosystems becomes a balancing act between the need for resource extraction and the continued availability of the other benefits from ecosystems. Management measures and policies are more likely to succeed if they are designed with foresight, which means accounting for how demand, a key driver of change in the boreal, may change in the future. To help this process, we present three divergent, yet plausible future scenarios based on the analysis of: (i) the capacity of the boreal to provide wood products, fossil fuels, metals and minerals, and hydropower and other renewables; (ii) past trends (1985–2015) and key events in the demand for these PrES; (iii) the interaction of demand for PrES with other drivers of change to the boreal zone; and (iv) the synergies and trade-offs between PrES. We find that historically and currently the capacity of the boreal to provide these PrES exceeds the amount currently supplied. However, the capacity of different PrES and location of extractive activities are spatially dispersed creating a spatial and temporal patchwork of associated risks to local ecosystem integrity and the supply of non-PrES. In addition, these scenarios suggest that the future of boreal PrES is very uncertain and highly dependent on how other drivers of change (namely governance and geopolitics, societal values and climate change) play out in the future. Given the spatial complexity, we find that the cumulative effect of these drivers (e.g., climate change) will determine what paths unfold for different areas of the boreal, and we conclude that careful consideration and planning must be given to ensure that the balance between PrES and non-PrES is maintained.

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“…This paper is part of a series called the Boreal 2050 Project , which examines multiple drivers of change to the boreal zone including, in addition to demographics and social values, demand for provisioning ecosystem services (PrES) (Erdozain et al 2018), demand for nonprovisioning ecosystem services (NPrES) (Lamothe et al 2018), industrial innovation and infrastructure (Musetta-Lambert et al 2018), governance and geopolitics (Fuss et al 2018), and atmospheric change (Yeung et al 2018). These driver papers were used to inform a scenario and risk management analysis for the boreal zone.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographics and social values as drivers of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

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The boreal zone, a vast region with abundant natural resources and related industries, has both provisioning and nonprovisioning ecosystem services that draw some people, while warding off others. It is an area that arguably affects many Canadians in different ways and represents a wide range of tangible and intangible values. Changes in demographic patterns over time shed light on the development of the social-ecological landscape of the boreal zone, and elucidate potential changes in the future. Using past and current demographic data, we explore population size, immigration and emigration, and birth and death rates within and outside the boreal zone. We also explore links between demographics, social values, and important factors of change in the boreal zone, and present three contrasting scenarios predicting the state of this zone in 2050. We pay particular attention to the Indigenous population, generational differences, international immigration, and the urban–rural divide. Fertility rates and immigration influence population demographics within and outside the boreal zone, respectively, alluding to potential divergences in social values and between communities located within and outside the boreal zone. The boreal zone is currently comprised of many smaller towns and communities scattered across the landscape, yet it is equally important to consider the influences of larger cities located outside the boreal zone, particularly in terms of governance, population movements, and political power. Considered together, these factors provide insight on social cohesion and connectedness, demand for goods and services, and changes in boreal-centric activities.

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Industrial innovation and infrastructure as drivers of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

Cited by 20 publications

References 74 publications

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

Demand for provisioning ecosystem services as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

Demographics and social values as drivers of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

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Industrial innovation and infrastructure as drivers of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

Cited by 20 publications

References 74 publications

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

Demand for provisioning ecosystem services as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

Demographics and social values as drivers of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

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About

Industrial innovation and infrastructure as drivers of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

Demand for provisioning ecosystem services as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

Demographics and social values as drivers of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹