Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

Abstract

Global anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and hazardous air pollutants have produced broad yet regionally disparate changes in climatic conditions and pollutant deposition in the Canadian boreal zone (the boreal). Adapting boreal resource management to atmospheric change requires a holistic understanding and awareness of the ongoing and future responses of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in this vast, heterogeneous landscape. To integrate existing knowledge of and generate new insights from the broad-scale impacts of atmospheric change, we first describe historical and present trends (∼1980–2015) in temperature, precipitation, deposition of hazardous air pollutants, and atmospheric-mediated natural disturbance regimes in this region. We then examine their associations with ecosystem condition and productivity, biological diversity, soil and water, and the carbon budget. These associations vary considerably among ecozones and likely undergo further changes under the emerging risks of atmospheric change. We highlight the urgent need to establish long-term, boreal-wide monitoring for many key components of freshwater ecosystems to better understand and project the influences of atmospheric change on boreal water resources. We also formulate three divergent future scenarios of boreal ecosystems in 2050. Our scenario analysis reveals multiple undesirable changes in boreal ecosystem structure and functioning with more variable atmospheric conditions and frequent land disturbances, while continuing business-as-usual management of natural resources. It is possible, though challenging, to reduce unwanted consequences to ecosystems through management regimes focussed on socio-ecological sustainability and developing resilient infrastructure and adaptive resource-management strategies. We emphasize the need for proactive actions and improved foresight for all sectors of society to collaborate, innovate, and invest in anticipation of impending global atmospheric change, without which the boreal zone will face a dim future.

Demographics and social values as drivers of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

“…This paper is part of a series called the Boreal 2050 Project , which examines multiple drivers of change to the boreal zone including, in addition to demographics and social values, demand for provisioning ecosystem services (PrES) (Erdozain et al 2018), demand for nonprovisioning ecosystem services (NPrES) (Lamothe et al 2018), industrial innovation and infrastructure (Musetta-Lambert et al 2018), governance and geopolitics (Fuss et al 2018), and atmospheric change (Yeung et al 2018). These driver papers were used to inform a scenario and risk management analysis for the boreal zone.…”

Alternative scenarios for the future of the Canadian boreal zone1

“…Moreover, boreal forests collectively have the potential to be a globally important sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The future of the boreal zone as either a sink or source of carbon is uncertain, however, and depends on both resource management practices and policies as well as changing natural disturbance regimes under climate change (Kurz et al 2013;Yeung et al 2018).…”

“…Canada's boreal zone faces many biophysical, economic, and sociopolitical threats, ranging from adverse impacts associated with resource management to fragmented governance regimes to global climate change (Fuss et al 2018;Nitoslawski et al 2018;Yeung et al 2018). However, the spatial extent and complexity of the boreal zone and its drivers of change translate to a tremendous degree of uncertainty around its future.…”

“…This paper is part of the special collection describing the Boreal 2050 Project . The project examines six drivers of change to the boreal zone, which include atmospheric change (Yeung et al 2018), demand for provisioning ecosystem services (Erdozain et al 2018), demand for nonprovisioning ecosystem services (Lamothe et al 2018), demographics and social values (Nitoslawski et al 2018), governance and geopolitics (Fuss et al 2018), and industrial innovation and infrastructure (Musetta-Lambert et al 2018). These drivers and their interactions help to shape the scenarios described in this paper.…”

Reimagining energy in the Canadian boreal zone: policy needs to facilitate a successful transition to a low-carbon energy future1

“…The Boreal 2050 project is a transdisciplinary project that strives to understand the future of, and risks to, the boreal zone during the next 30+ years using the International Organization of Standards (ISO) Risk Management Framework (see Creed et al 2019 for details). Within this framework, we identified major drivers of change for the boreal zone: atmospheric change (Yeung et al 2018), demand for provisioning (Erdozain et al 2018) and nonprovisioning ecosystem services (Lamothe et al 2018), demographics and social values (Nitoslawski et al 2018), governance (Fuss et al 2018), and industrial innovation and infrastructure (Musetta-Lambert et al 2018). The historical and current status of these drivers of change in the boreal zone was reviewed and this information was used to frame four plausible future scenarios of what the boreal zone could look like in 2050 (i.e., scenario analysis).…”