Demographics and social values as drivers of change in the Canadian boreal zone¹

Abstract

The boreal zone, a vast region with abundant natural resources and related industries, has both provisioning and nonprovisioning ecosystem services that draw some people, while warding off others. It is an area that arguably affects many Canadians in different ways and represents a wide range of tangible and intangible values. Changes in demographic patterns over time shed light on the development of the social-ecological landscape of the boreal zone, and elucidate potential changes in the future. Using past and current demographic data, we explore population size, immigration and emigration, and birth and death rates within and outside the boreal zone. We also explore links between demographics, social values, and important factors of change in the boreal zone, and present three contrasting scenarios predicting the state of this zone in 2050. We pay particular attention to the Indigenous population, generational differences, international immigration, and the urban–rural divide. Fertility rates and immigration influence population demographics within and outside the boreal zone, respectively, alluding to potential divergences in social values and between communities located within and outside the boreal zone. The boreal zone is currently comprised of many smaller towns and communities scattered across the landscape, yet it is equally important to consider the influences of larger cities located outside the boreal zone, particularly in terms of governance, population movements, and political power. Considered together, these factors provide insight on social cohesion and connectedness, demand for goods and services, and changes in boreal-centric activities.

Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

“…It is also critical to consider major demographic trends in Canada in concert with that of atmospheric change, among which the proportion of elderly people is expected to be rapidly increasing (Bélanger et al 2005). In particular, the increasing elderly population and certain other demographic groups (e.g., Aboriginal people, children, and people with pre-existing health conditions) may be at greater risk in terms of both health and economic security under anticipated atmospheric change (e.g., Bélanger et al 2008;Ford et al 2010;Berry et al 2014;Nitoslawski et al 2018).…”

“…As part of a series called Boreal 2050 Project , we have chosen to focus on the responses of ecosystem components that are tightly linked to multiple drivers of change in the boreal that interact to shape the socio-ecological sustainability of this region (see Boreal 2050 Project overview in . These drivers of change include demand for provisioning ecosystem services (Erdozain et al 2018), demand for nonprovisioning ecosystem services (Lamothe et al 2018), governance and geopolitics (Fuss et al 2018), demographics and social values (Nitoslawski et al 2018), and industrial innovation and infrastructure (Musetta-Lambert et al 2018).…”

Reimagining energy in the Canadian boreal zone: policy needs to facilitate a successful transition to a low-carbon energy future1

“…About 3.7 million people live in Canada's boreal zone, mostly in remote and rural communities (Statistics Canada 2016). A large number of these people are Indigenous (Nitoslawski et al 2018). Cities are large contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and are large consumers of the natural resources extracted from the boreal zone.…”

“…With the exceptions of a small number of larger urban centers (e.g., Edmonton, Alb. ; Yellowknife, NWT), the majority of the people live in small communities and their economies are heavily reliant on natural resources (Nitoslawski et al 2018). The boreal zone is also home to a large number of Indigenous communities who are vulnerable to climate change and the impacts of natural resource extraction (Furgal and Seguin 2006;Furgal and Prowse 2007).…”

“…The Boreal 2050 project is a transdisciplinary project that strives to understand the future of, and risks to, the boreal zone during the next 30+ years using the International Organization of Standards (ISO) Risk Management Framework (see Creed et al 2019 for details). Within this framework, we identified major drivers of change for the boreal zone: atmospheric change (Yeung et al 2018), demand for provisioning (Erdozain et al 2018) and nonprovisioning ecosystem services (Lamothe et al 2018), demographics and social values (Nitoslawski et al 2018), governance (Fuss et al 2018), and industrial innovation and infrastructure (Musetta-Lambert et al 2018). The historical and current status of these drivers of change in the boreal zone was reviewed and this information was used to frame four plausible future scenarios of what the boreal zone could look like in 2050 (i.e., scenario analysis).…”