Estimates of country level temperature-related mortality damage functions

Abstract

Many studies project that climate change is expected to cause a significant number of excess deaths. Yet, in integrated assessment models that determine the social cost of carbon (SCC), human mortality impacts do not reflect the latest scientific understanding. We address this issue by estimating country-level mortality damage functions for temperature-related mortality with global spatial coverage. We rely on projections from the most comprehensive published study in the epidemiology literature of future temperature impacts on mortality (Gasparrini et al. in Lancet Planet Health 1:e360–e367, 2017), which estimated changes in heat- and cold-related mortality for 23 countries over the twenty-first century. We model variation in these mortality projections as a function of baseline climate, future temperature change, and income variables and then project future changes in mortality for every country. We find significant spatial heterogeneity in projected mortality impacts, with hotter and poorer places more adversely affected than colder and richer places. In the absence of income-based adaptation, the global mortality rate in 2080–2099 is expected to increase by 1.8% [95% CI 0.8–2.8%] under a lower-emissions RCP 4.5 scenario and by 6.2% [95% CI 2.5–10.0%] in the very high-emissions RCP 8.5 scenario relative to 2001–2020. When the reduced sensitivity to heat associated with rising incomes, such as greater ability to invest in air conditioning, is accounted for, the expected end-of-century increase in the global mortality rate is 1.1% [95% CI 0.4–1.9%] in RCP 4.5 and 4.2% [95% CI 1.8–6.7%] in RCP 8.5. In addition, we compare recent estimates of climate-change induced excess mortality from diarrheal disease, malaria and dengue fever in 2030 and 2050 with current estimates used in SCC calculations and show these are likely underestimated in current SCC estimates, but are also small compared to more direct temperature effects.

Analysis of the impact of success on three dimensions of sustainability in 173 countries

“…The multiple linear regressions were completed with the help of IBM SPSS V.26 to develop 12 regression models dealing with national success and sustainability. These relationships, determined by the research, correspond to various research findings 22 – 26 from around the world. These models can have significant consequences and implications for legislators, policymakers, communities, and businesses.…”

Main Challenges of Incorporating Environmental Impacts in the Economic Evaluation of Health Technology Assessment: A Scoping Review

“…Application of the CBA approach has the advantage of having well-established evidence for incorporating environmental outcomes. On the other hand, models of the economic value of environmental outcomes such as social costs of carbon (SCC) are subject to significant uncertainty due to the factors related to discount rate, valuation of damages, population growth or geographical location [ 21 ], non-inclusion of certain costs related to environmental effects [ 24 ], and how human health and mortality costs are represented [ 23 ]. Furthermore, depending on how CBA is performed, it shares the same challenges as enriched CUA.…”

“…Including the environmental dimension in the HTA presents a series of challenges, such as identifying key concepts and adequate indicators or having reliable and specific data to be able to perform this assessment. Some of these indicators/data are the CO 2 intensity of the devices from a full life-cycle approach (LCA) of the technology and the social cost of carbon (SCC) [ 23 ]. The SCC is defined as the costs that society will incur because of the emission of one ton of CO 2 .…”

Relationship Between Climate Variability, WASH and Diarrhea Cases in Indonesia

“…The impact of climate change is expected to increase the number of deaths significantly. Areas with a majority of poor people are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of rising temperatures, as their low incomes make them less able to adapt to hot weather [2]. Hotter temperatures also have a direct effect on health which causes exacerbations of respiratory diseases such as respiratory allergies and autoimmunity [3].…”

“…Not only exposure to heat, the impact of climate change on health to exposure to cold, air pollution, food safety risks, infectious diseases due to flooding, and disruption to access and functioning of health services [4]. The global mortality rate in 2080-2099 is expected to increase by 1.8% [95% CI 0.8-2.8%] under the scenario of RCP 4.5 or with lower emissions with the predicted increase in the global mortality rate by the end of the century being 1.1% [2].…”