Effects of fertility and international migration on changing age composition in Canada

Mv, George; Nault, François; Romaniuc, Anatole

doi:10.3233/sju-1991-8102

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…The scenarios presented show that international migration cannot prevent or offset the overall aging trend. A study done by George, Nault and Romaniuc (1991) comes up with similar conclusions that immigration effects are evenly spread over all age groups. Thus, it has little effect on age distribution.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…In the latest population projections of Canada (Statistics Canada, 2005b), even in the high growth scenario (Scenario 6) assuming an increase in fertility to 1.7 children per woman by 2016, and an increase in immigration rate to 8.5 per thousand population by 2010 (i.e., an increase in annual immigrants from 239,000 in 2005 to 364,000 in 2056), the potential support ratio in 2031 is projected to be 2.7, about the same as that of the projection scenario with migration (Scenario 3) presented in this study, and by 2056, the ratio will only increase to 2.3 working-age persons for each senior, rather than 2.2. The limited effect of international migration on the future age structure of the Canadian population is also presented by George, Nault and Romaniuc (1991). A threefold increase in the annual number of immigrants from 140,000 to 500,000 during a 25-year projection period would not produce significant effect on the young and elderly population.…”

Section: Projected Population Size and Age Structure For Canada And Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Projected Population Size and Age Structure for Canada and Provinces: With and Without International Migration

Loh

George

2007

CSP

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This paper examines the effect of net international migration on prospective population growth and age structure in Canada for the next 50 years. It also examines the impact of international migration on provincial growth and distribution. The procedure used in this study is by comparing two projected population scenarios, one with international migration and the other without international migration, based on the latest 2005-based population projections. The analysis of the scenarios shows that the assumed level of international migration which is higher than the current level contributes to a continuous increase in population over the next 50 years, but has limited effect to prevent or offset the overall aging trend.Ce document examine l'effet de la migration internationale sur la croissance prospective de la population et la structure par âge au Canada pour les 50 prochaines années. Il examine aussi l'impact de la migration internationale sur la croissance et la distribution provinciales. La démarche utilisée dans cette étude est de comparer les deux scénarios de population projetée l'un avec migration internationale et l'autre sans migration internationale, selon les dernières projections de population de 2005. L'analyse des scénarios démontre que le niveau présumé de migration internationale, plus élevé que le niveau actuel, contribue à une croissance continuelle de la population au cours des 50 prochaines années, mais a peu d'effet quand à la prévention ou la tendance au vieillissement.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 62%

Section: Projected Population Size and Age Structure For Canada And Pmentioning

confidence: 99%