Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

Abstract

Climate change will affect all sectors of society and the environment at all scales, ranging from the continental to the national and local. Decision-makers and other interested citizens need to be able to access reliable sciencebased information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation. Participatory integrated assessment (IA) tools combine knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder 'lay insight' and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of 'what if's' to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change. This paper describes the conceptual design of a participatory IA tool, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, based on a professionally facilitated stakeholder engagement process. The CLIMSAVE (climate change integrated methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe) Platform is a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect European landscape change. The relationship between choice, uncertainty and constraints is a key cross-cutting theme in the conduct of past participatory IA. Integrating scenario development processes with an interactive modelling platform is shown to allow the exploration of future uncertainty as a structural feature of such complex problems, encouraging stakeholders to explore adaptation choices within real-world constraints of future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities, rather than seeking the 'right' answers.

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“…If the aim is prediction, forecast or projections, different approaches are available based on formal modelling, trend extrapolations, probabilistic approaches and expert opinions [28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36]. Guessing what the future may bring was not the primary scope of this study and as a result we did not take this direction.…”

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“…The contributions of Tao et al (2012), Harrison et al (2012), Li et al (2012), and Rannow (2013) are illustrating different ways to include results in planning processes and decision-making.…”

“…hard and soft flood protection). First approaches are illustrated by Harrison et al (2012), Li et al (2012), Rannow (2013), and Saathoff et al (2012).…”

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“…These effects can be investigated using regional CCIAV models in combination with integrated scenarios of climate and socioeconomic development (e.g. Harrison et al 2013).…”