Modelling population structure in the context of urban land use change in Europe

Terämä, Emma; Clarke, Elizabeth; Rounsevell, Mark; Fronzek, Stefan; Carter, Timothy R.

doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1194-5

Cited by 41 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The IAP The impacts and risks from high-end scenarios: strategies for innovative solutions (IMPRESSIONS) IAP is an interactive web-based platform to assess climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation [28,[33][34][35][36]. The platform integrates a series of interlinked meta-models representing urban development [37,38], water resources [39], flooding [40], forests and agriculture [41], and biodiversity [42] (supplementary figure SF1 is available online at stacks. iop.org/ERL/14/104009/mmedia).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Lee

Brown

Seo

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Land-based mitigation, particularly through afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation, is an important component of the Paris Agreement to limit average global temperature increases to between 1.5°C and 2°C. However, the specific actions that would ensure sufficient carbon sequestration in forests remain unclear, as do their trade-offs against other land-based objectives. We use a regional integrated assessment model to identify the conditions under which European forests reach the extent required by mitigation targets. We compare stylised scenarios of changes in meat demand, bioenergy crop production, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. Only 42 out of 972 model simulations achieved minimum levels of food provision and forest extent without the need to change dietary preferences, but relied on crop yield improvements within Europe of at least 30%. Maintaining food imports at today's levels to avoid the potential displacement of food production and deforestation required at least a 15% yield improvement, or a drastic reduction in meat consumption (avg. 57%). The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Lee

Brown

Seo

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…This method does not allow for spatial variation in outcomes between national scenarios, making it perhaps better suited to shorter time horizons. A simpler scaling method has been used for Europe, where Terama et al (2017) downscaled national-level age structure projections from a cohort-component model to sub-national regions, proportionally to their age structures in the base year, a method that does not allow for changes over time in the relative age distribution across regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Empirically based spatial projections of US population age structure consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways

Striessnig

Gao

O’Neill

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Spatially-explicit population projections by age are increasingly needed for understanding bilateral human-environment interactions. Conventional demographic methods for projecting age structure experience substantial challenges at small spatial scales. In search of a potentially better-performing alternative, we develop an empirically based spatial model of population age structure and test its application in projecting US population age structure over the 21st century under various socioeconomic scenarios (SSPs). The model draws on 40 years of historical data explaining changes in spatial age distribution at the county level. It demonstrates that a very good model fit is achievable even with parsimonious data input, and distinguishes itself from existing methods as a promising approach to spatial age structure modeling at the global level where data availability is often limited. Results suggest that wide variations in the spatial pattern of county-level age structure are plausible, with the possibility of substantial aging clustered in particular parts of the country. Aging is experienced most prominently in thinly populated counties in the Midwest and the Rocky Mountains, while cities and surrounding counties, particularly in California, as well as the southern parts of New England and the Mid-Atlantic region, maintain a younger population age structure with a lower proportion in the most vulnerable 70+ age group. The urban concentration of younger people, as well as the absolute number of vulnerable elderly people can vary strongly by SSP.

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“…Within this analysis, population-centric change, consisting of demographic trends and societal preferences (Terama et al, 2017b), is one of the most significant driver in urban land use development across scenarios (Terama et al, 2017a). Demographic trends are used as an input to the Regional Urbanisation Growth model (RUG).…”

Section: Multi-scale European Sspsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The scenario narratives are published in for Europe, in for the Hungarian case study, in Dunn et al (2017) for Scotland and in for Iberia. An overview of the case studies and sectors for decision-making is reported in Lourenço et al (2018) and the summaries of all the local SSPs is provided in the IMPRESSIONS deliverable (Kok & Pedde, 2016 Terama et al (2017b). The focus for this paper is the influence of global scale SSP narratives and European SSP parameterisation, more precisely the links between the total population, age and life-cycle stage, residential preferences and planning (Terama et al, 2017b) on modelling outcomes.…”

Section: Multi-scale European Sspsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the importance of socio-economic change to landuse change scenarios has been highlighted (Harrison et al, 2018;Holman et al, 2005), demographic assumptions are generally developed at the global scale (van Vuuren et al, 2010) and successively downscaled. For example, Terama et al (2017a) and Terama et al (2017b) have proposed an urban modelling approach which utilises sub-national downscaling of detailed population projections to regional level, and the translation of the downscaled projections into population structure driven by urban land use development up to 2100. The study suggests that given the predicted future changes to the demographic profile of Europe, in particular, an ageing population, strengthening the link between urbanisation trends and population structure is increasingly important.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Advancing the development and use of climate-change scenarios : A multi-scale analysis to explore socio-economic European futures

Pedde¹

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I would like to express my gratitude to my 'official' supervision-team, that is my promotor and supervisor. Thanks to my promotor, Prof. Dr Rik Leemans, for his responsibility, commitment and availability. Thanks also for detailed comments on hyphenation rules and much, much more! Rik, your guidance helped me throughout the thesis, until the very end! Thanks to my supervisor, Dr Kasper Kok. To those around me, it is common knowledge that I had a wonderful PhD experience, and I owe this largely to Kasper. Kasper, you respected me as your peer, granting all freedom I needed, yet advising and sharing your knowledge and network. You always supported me. I could not imagine a better supervision-team. Kasper, first thing after our first brainstorm, you 'threw me' in the midst of an IMPRESSIONS project modellers meeting, in September 2014, in Pisa. I didn't know anyone then, except for some names in my EndNote library. But since then, all IMPRESSIONISTs have become a real part of my research and, some, of my life. Thanks to all of IMPRESSIONS for the lively discussions, research input and questions, novel methodologies, life-changing lessons, crazy nights out, even-crazier travels and runs etc. As I don't have space for all unfortunately, I'll just mention some of you, knowing that my thanks are sincerely directed to all. I'd like to mention those who I consider my 'unofficial advisory-team'. And, incidentally, you are all British! I would like to thank Dr Jill Jäger, Prof. Dr Ian Holman, Dr Calum Brown and our coordinator, Prof. Dr Paula Harrison. You all are exceptionally knowledgeable scientists as demonstrated by your research output, but not only. In this 'sorry-I'm-extremely-busy' world, you still found time to send valuable feedback, share life experiences and discuss with me many of the concepts that I would bring forward and finalise in this thesis. It is an honour to consider you my co-supervisors. Paula, thanks for ignoring Brexit and inviting me to pursue the UK-SSPs adventure in Lancaster! I'm humbled by the opportunity to working at CEH as part of the UK-SCAPE team guided by Prof. Dr James Bullock. vi Going back to IMPRESSIONS, the British team would not be complete without the Scottish-case-study team guided by Dr Liz Clarke, Dr Miriam Dunn and Prof. Mark Rounsevell. Thanks to all for contributing to my papers and sharing your wine knowledge. My heartfelt thanks also to the other 'Brits': Ms Alison Smith and Dr Robert Dunford for their sharp contribution to scientific discussions and papers. Thanks also to Dr Aidan Keith for lively discussions during IMPRESSIONS and at CEH. Thanks to the international case-study teams for unforgettable workshops, discussions and work together throughout Spain, Portugal, Hungary, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. I'd like to thank in particular Dr David Tabara and the fantastic artistic team, Dr Tiago Capela

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Modelling population structure in the context of urban land use change in Europe

Cited by 41 publications

References 21 publications

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Empirically based spatial projections of US population age structure consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways

Advancing the development and use of climate-change scenarios : A multi-scale analysis to explore socio-economic European futures

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