Extensive microscopic molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to study the effects of short-chain alcohols, methanol and ethanol, on two different fully hydrated lipid bilayer systems (POPC and DPPC) in the fluid phase at 323 K. It is found that ethanol has a stronger effect on the structural properties of the membranes. In particular, the bilayers become more fluid and permeable: ethanol molecules are able to penetrate through the membrane in typical timescales of approximately 200 ns, whereas for methanol that timescale is considerably longer, at least of the order of microseconds. A closer examination exposes a number of effects due to ethanol. Hydrogen-bonding analysis reveals that a large fraction of ethanols is involved in hydrogen bonds with lipids. This in turn is intimately coupled to the ordering of hydrocarbon chains: we find that binding to an ethanol decreases the order of the chains. We have also determined the dependence of lipid-chain ordering on ethanol concentration and found that to be nonmonotonous. Overall, we find good agreement with NMR and micropipette studies.

We have combined experiments with atomic-scale molecular dynamics simulations to consider the influence of ethanol on a variety of lipid membrane properties. We first employed isothermal titration calorimetry together with the solvent-null method to study the partitioning of ethanol molecules into saturated and unsaturated membrane systems. The results show that ethanol partitioning is considerably more favorable in unsaturated bilayers, which are characterized by their more disordered nature compared to their saturated counterparts. Simulation studies at varying ethanol concentrations propose that the partitioning of ethanol depends on its concentration, implying that the partitioning is a nonideal process. To gain further insight into the permeation of alcohols and their influence on lipid dynamics, we also employed molecular dynamics simulations to quantify kinetic events associated with the permeation of alcohols across a membrane, and to characterize the rotational and lateral diffusion of lipids and alcohols in these systems. The simulation results are in agreement with available experimental data and further show that alcohols have a small but non-vanishing effect on the dynamics of lipids in a membrane. The influence of ethanol on the lateral pressure profile of a lipid bilayer is found to be prominent: ethanol reduces the tension at the membrane-water interface and reduces the peaks in the lateral pressure profile close to the membrane-water interface. The changes in the lateral pressure profile are several hundred atmospheres. This supports the hypothesis that anesthetics may act by changing the lateral pressure profile exerted on proteins embedded in membranes.

Population structure and dynamics are important drivers of land use. In this article, we present the methods and outcomes of integrating population projections across multiple spatial scales with an urban growth model. By linking shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)-specific national population projections to present-day population distributions at a sub-national scale, we describe a downscaling approach that provides input into a regional urban growth (RUG) model for Europe. The allocation of population acts as a key driver for residential urban demand especially in the SSP5-based scenario, and therefore regional (sub-national) urban growth. Sub-national population trends can deviate strongly from national averages stemming from current population age structures: this creates different urban land use patterns and demand for artificial surfaces. We see strong population dependence in the regional development of urban areas across Europe, and the effects caused by age structure and sub-national population dynamics.

Elderly people are known to be more vulnerable than the general population to a range of weatherrelated hazards such as heat waves, icy conditions and cold periods. In the Nordic region, some of these hazards are projected to change their frequency and intensity in the future, while at the same time strong increases are projected in the proportion of elderly in the population. This paper reports results from three projects studying the potential impacts of climate change on elderly people in the Nordic region. An interactive web-based tool has been developed for mapping and combining indicators of climate change vulnerability of the elderly, by municipality, across three Nordic countries: Finland, Norway and Sweden. The tool can also be used for projecting temperaturerelated mortality in Finland under different projections of future climate. The approach to vulnerability mapping differs from most previous studies in which researchers selected the indicators to combine into an index. Here, while researchers compile data on indicators that can be accessed in the mapping tool, the onus is on the users of the tool to decide which indicators are of interest and whether to map them individually or as combined indices.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0688-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 123Reg Environ Change (2016) 16:43-58 DOI 10.1007 Stakeholders with responsibility for the care and welfare of the elderly were engaged in the study through interviews and a workshop. They affirmed the usefulness of the prototype mapping tool for raising awareness about climate change as a potential risk factor for the elderly and offered suggestions on potential refinements, which have now been implemented. These included adding background information on possible adaptation measures for ameliorating the impacts of extreme temperatures, and improved representation of uncertainties in projections of future exposure and adaptive capacity.