10As the world's largest distributed store of freshwater, groundwater plays a central role in 11 sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. 12The strategic importance of groundwater to global water and food security will intensify 13 under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts, floods) 14 increase variability in soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent 15 research assessing climate impacts on groundwater through natural and human-induced 16 processes as well as groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system.

Flooding is a very costly natural hazard in the UK and is expected to increase further under future climate change scenarios. Flood defences are commonly deployed to protect communities and property from flooding, but in recent years flood management policy has looked towards solutions that seek to mitigate flood risk at flood-prone sites through targeted interventions throughout the catchment, sometimes using techniques which involve working with natural processes. This paper describes a project to provide a succinct summary of the natural science evidence base concerning the effectiveness of catchment-based ‘natural’ flood management in the UK. The evidence summary is designed to be read by an informed but not technically specialist audience. Each evidence statement is placed into one of four categories describing the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material.

Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

This paper presents the first international assessment of phosphorus concentrations in groundwater, using data from the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales. Phosphorus is considered to be the main limiting nutrient in most freshwater ecosystems. Controlling phosphorus inputs is thus considered the key to reducing eutrophication and managing ecological quality. Very little attention has been paid to evaluating transfers via groundwater due to the long-held belief that adsorption and metal complex formation retain the majority of potentially mobile phosphorus. In each country, ecologically-important phosphorus thresholds are exceeded in a significant number of groundwater samples. The relative contributions of potential sources for these elevated concentrations are currently unclear but there is evidence to suggest that they are at least partly anthropogenic. The results suggest that groundwater P concentrations are such that they may be a more important contributor to surface water phosphorus than previously thought. Copyright ¸ 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Scenarios have been recognised as a useful tool for planning, which have resulted in a strong increase in the number of (multiscale) scenarios in climate change research. This paper addresses the need for methodological progress and testing of conceptual considerations, by extending the global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We present a set of four European SSPs until 2100 and a novel method to develop qualitative stories for Europe equivalent to the global SSPs starting from an existing set of European scenarios. Similar to the global SSPs, the set includes a sustainable future with global cooperation and less intensive lifestyles (We are the World; Eur-SSP1); a future in which countries struggle to maintain living standards in a high-carbon intensive Europe (Icarus; Eur-SSP3); a world in which power becomes concentrated in a small elite and where Europe becomes an important player (Riders on the Storm; Eur-SSP4); and one where a lack of environmental concern leads to the overexploitation of fossil fuel resources addressed by technological solutions (Fossil-fuelled Development; Eur-SSP5). We conclude that the global SSPs are a good starting point for developing equivalent continental scale scenarios that, in turn, can serve multiple purposes. There are, however, methodological challenges related to the choice for equivalence and the exact methods by which scenarios are constructed that need to be tested further.

An integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socioeconomic change on groundwater recharge is described from East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping and rotations. Important sources of uncertainty and shortcomings in recharge estimation are discussed in the light of the results. The uncertainty in, and importance of, socioeconomic scenarios in exploring the consequences of unknown futures are highlighted. Changes to soil properties are occurring over a range of time scales, such that the soils of the future may not have the 2 same infiltration properties as existing soils. The potential implications involved in assuming unchanging soil properties are described. To focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socioeconomic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists.

China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the agricultural sector in China is responsible for 17-20% of annual emissions and 62% of total freshwater use. Groundwater abstraction in China has increased rapidly from 10 km 3 yr −1 in the 1950s to more than 100 km 3 yr −1 in the 2000s, such that roughly 70% of the irrigated area in northern China is now groundwater-fed. Pumping of water for irrigation is one of the most energy consuming on-farm processes; however, to date this source of GHG emissions in China and elsewhere has been relatively neglected. We derive the first detailed estimate of GHG emissions from groundwater pumping for irrigation in China, using extensive village survey data from 11 provinces, broadly representative of the situation during the mid-2000s. The 11 provinces cover roughly half of China's irrigated cropland and we upscale to the national level using government statistics for the remaining 20 provinces. Our results show emissions of 33.1 MtCO 2 e, just over half a per cent of the national total. Groundwater abstraction represents an important source of GHG emissions that has been rapidly increasing and which at present is largely unregulated. Water scarcity in China is already driving policies to improve water conservation. These results suggest that significant potential exists to promote the co-benefits of water and energy saving in order to meet national planning targets.

The first comprehensive use of wavelet methods to identify non-stationary time-frequency relations between North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns and groundwater levels is described. Long-term hydrogeological time series from three boreholes within different aquifers across the UK are analysed to identify statistically significant wavelet coherence between the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic pattern, and the Scandinavia pattern and monthly groundwater-level time series. Wavelet coherence measures the cross-correlation of two time series as a function of frequency, and can be interpreted as a correlation coefficient value. Results not only indicate that there are common statistically significant periods of multiannual-to-decadal wavelet coherence between the three teleconnection indices and groundwater levels in each of the boreholes, but they also show that there are periods when groundwater levels at individual boreholes show distinctly different patterns of significant wavelet coherence with respect to the teleconnection indices. The analyses presented demonstrate the value of wavelet methods in identifying the synchronization of groundwater-level dynamics by non-stationary climate variability on time scales that range from interannual to decadal or longer.