Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

Abstract

Abstract:In four focus group exercises involving both forecasting and backcasting approaches, we gave approximately 100 Australian citizens the opportunity to discuss likely, desirable and feared futures to 2050. The image they paint is both coherent and consistent. Education, governance, personal attitudes and societal trends, rather than specific events, are drivers of a future which is perceived as being largely shaped by human choices. Innovation is believed to be more necessary in novel social arrangements than in further technology. The most feared futures arise from an amplification of trends already at play in the present: economic growth at the expense of the environment and quality of life, lack of equity, poor government, corporate greed, commercialism and erosion of social values. Economic and material growth does not feature in the most desired futures which are local, inclusive, peaceful, equitable and in some cases frugal. The visions and scenarios developed find a place within established foresight frameworks and global political narratives, but seem to lie at the fringe of current media and short-term political discourse. These results should not be interpreted as representative of the overall Australian population, but suggest that extending the analysis to the broader community could provide significant insights and enrich the discussion of important societal choices. OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2015, 7 223

Myths of the future and scenario archetypes

“…The latter highlight mistrust towards these two drivers of change, and a tendency to view a lack of equity and moral values as synonymous with economy and politics. A similar attitude was also noticed by Boschetti et al (2014).…”

Proposing an evaluation framework for energy policy making incorporating equity: Applications in Australia

“…When asked to describe an ideal future for Australia, workgroup respondents across multiple locations identified many common factors including access to good education, participatory democracy, freedom, work-life balance, a healthy environment with climate change contained, sustainable industries and equitable access to services and resources. All respondents identified a preference for social equity (specifically full employment and wealth distribution) and preservation of the natural environment over economic growth (Boschetti et al, 2015). When assessing intergenerational distribution preferences, respondents understood that those who benefit from the implementation of a policy are Please reference the final published version at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.06.021 unlikely to be the same people who are paying for them.…”

Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning

“…25 Foresighting draws on approaches used in longrange and strategic planning, 27,28 horizontal policymaking, democratic planning, 29 and participatory futures studies. 30 Foresighting and scenario generation require imagination, broad knowledge, and a propensity toward intellectual adventure. [42][43][44] Feedback is provided mostly in terms of intellectual Strategic planning planning is a structured process to integrate information and to conceptualize.…”

“…45,46 Evidence, mostly in terms of indicators, is never conclusive and often amenable to alternative interpretation. 47 This may be contrasted with even more general visioning that is usually accompanied by informal, qualitative narratives, 30,41 and formal forecasts with projections that are usually based on empirical data and require underlying assumptions about model behavior and for which evidence and feedback are observed (e.g., biophysical forecasts 39 ).…”