Changes in runoff time series in Thuringia, Germany – Mann-Kendall trend test and extreme value analysis

Danneberg, Julie

doi:10.5194/adgeo-31-49-2012

Cited by 38 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(12 reference statements)

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“…A significant and positive MK result indicates that the Tmin series are systematically moving to a warmer condition. Moreover, according to Blain (2013) and Danneberg (2012), if the outcomes obtained from the original MK and MK-PW test do not significantly differ from each other it may be assumed that there is no significant serial correlation affecting the trend analysis. The results of the trend analyses obtained from the MK and MK-PW did not significantly differ from each other.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate trends in a non-traditional high quality wine producing region

et al. 2014

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The global warming may put pressure over some world's highest quality wine producing regions. This fact indicates the need to evaluate the presence of climate change in non-traditional wine producing regions of the Globe. Therefore, the goals of this study were to detect trends in rainfall and air temperature series obtained from three locations of the eastern part of the State of São Paulo, Brazil (a non-traditional high quality wine producing region) and to evaluate the effect of the detected climate trends on agrometeorological indices frequently used to indicate suitable areas for wine production. The trend analyses were applied to maximum and minimum air temperature series, rainfall series and to the following agrometeorological parameters: heliothermal index, cool night index and growing degree-days. These three indices were selected due to their previous use in studies that address the effect of regional climate conditions on the general wine style. The analyses took into account the grape phenological aspects for both summer and winter growing seasons. The results found in this study support the hypothesis of the presence of climate trends in the wine producing regions of the eastern part of the State of São Paulo-Brazil. These trends are mostly linked to changes in the minimum air temperature. The results also reveal a shortening in the duration of grapevines phenological phases and a change to warmer conditions during the ripening Months. These changes are consistent with the climate changes observed in other wine producing regions of the world and may negatively affect the wine production of the eastern part of the State of São Paulo.Key words: global warming, biometeorological indices, Mann-Kendall. Tendências climáticas em uma região não tradicional de produção de vinhos de alta qualidadeResumo O aquecimento global pode afetar negativamente regiões tradicionalmente vitícolas do globo terrestre. Esse fato indica a necessidade de verificar a presença de alterações nos padrões climáticos em regiões alternativas (ou não tradicionais) para o cultivo de uvas para vinhos finos. Assim, os objetivos desse estudo foram detectar tendências climáticas em séries de temperatura do ar e precipitação pluvial em três localidades da parte leste do estado de São Paulo e avaliar os efeitos dessas alterações em índices agrometeorológicos frequentemente utilizados na indicação de áreas favoráveis à produção de uvas para vinho. As análises de tendência foram aplicadas a séries de temperatura máxima e mínima, a séries de precipitação pluvial e aos seguintes índices, selecionados por serem usualmente utilizados em estudos que abordam o efeito do clima regional sobre a produção de uvas para vinho: heliotérmico, frio noturno e graus-dia. Consideraram-se os aspectos fenológicos em safras de verão e inverno. Os resultados suportam a hipótese de presença de mudanças climáticas na região do estudo, indicando que ela é fundamentalmente relacionada a alterações temporais na temperatura mínima do ar. Observou-se também o enc...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate trends in a non-traditional high quality wine producing region

et al. 2014

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“…High variability and nonlinear system characteristics are the reasons for applying this nonparametric test. The MannKendall test has already been applied in detecting temperature (Vitale et al 2010), precipitation Serrano et al 1999) and river flow data (Danneberg 2012). The nonparametric Lepage test was also applied to detect change points in the trajectories of ecosystem services.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent changes in ecosystem services and human well-being in the Bangladesh coastal zone

et al. 2015

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This study takes an historical approach in order to establish how the form and function of the social-ecological system that represents the Bangladesh south-western coastal zone has changed over recent decades. Time series data for a range of ecosystem services and drivers are analysed to define the range of trends, the presence of change points, slow and fast variables and the significant drivers of change. Since the 1980s, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. As a result, the size of population below the poverty line has reduced by *17 %. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services such as water availability, water quality and land stability have deteriorated. Conversion of rice fields to shrimp farms is almost certainly a factor in increasing soil and surface water salinity. Most of the services experienced statistically significant change points between 1975 and 1980, and among the services, water availability, shrimp farming and maintenance of biodiversity appear to have passed tipping points. An environmental Kuznets curve analysis suggests that the point at which growing economic wealth feeds back into effective environmental protection has not yet been reached for water resources. Trends in indicators of ecosystem services and human well-being point to widespread non-stationary dynamics governed by slowly changing variables with an increased likelihood of systemic threshold changes/tipping points in the near future. The results will feed into simulation models and strategies that can define alternative and sustainable paths for land management.

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“…u(t) < 0 ise azalan yönde bir eğilim olduğu kabul edilir. Dünyanın farklı ülkelerinde (Longobardi ve Villani, 2010;Al Buhairi, 2010;Danneberg, 2012;Mondal vd., 2012) ve Türkiye'de (Türkeş, 1996;Partal ve Kahya, 2006;Karabulut ve Cosun, 2009;Kum ve Kılıç, 2013) ortalama, minimum, maksimum ve yıllık sıcaklık ile yağışın trend analizini belirlemede Mann-Kendall Analiz yön-teminin kullanımı son derece yaygındır.…”

Section: Veri Ve Yöntemunclassified