This study takes an historical approach in order to establish how the form and function of the social-ecological system that represents the Bangladesh south-western coastal zone has changed over recent decades. Time series data for a range of ecosystem services and drivers are analysed to define the range of trends, the presence of change points, slow and fast variables and the significant drivers of change. Since the 1980s, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. As a result, the size of population below the poverty line has reduced by *17 %. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services such as water availability, water quality and land stability have deteriorated. Conversion of rice fields to shrimp farms is almost certainly a factor in increasing soil and surface water salinity. Most of the services experienced statistically significant change points between 1975 and 1980, and among the services, water availability, shrimp farming and maintenance of biodiversity appear to have passed tipping points. An environmental Kuznets curve analysis suggests that the point at which growing economic wealth feeds back into effective environmental protection has not yet been reached for water resources. Trends in indicators of ecosystem services and human well-being point to widespread non-stationary dynamics governed by slowly changing variables with an increased likelihood of systemic threshold changes/tipping points in the near future. The results will feed into simulation models and strategies that can define alternative and sustainable paths for land management.

Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh Nicholls, R. J.; Hutton, C. W.; Lazar, A. N.; Allan, A.; Adger, W. N.; Adams, H.; Wolf, J.; Rahman, M.; Salehin, M. Published in:Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science DOI:10.1016/j.ecss.2016.08.017 Publication date: 2016 Document Version Peer reviewed version Link to publication in Discovery Research PortalCitation for published version (APA): Nicholls, R. J., Hutton, C. W., Lazar, A. N., Allan, A., Adger, W. N., Adams, H., ... Salehin, M. (2016). Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 183(B), 370-381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.08.017 General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in Discovery Research Portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.• Users may download and print one copy of any publication from Discovery Research Portal for the purpose of private study or research.• You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain.• You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal. Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Abstract: Deltas provide diverse ecosystem services and benefits for their populations. At the same time, deltas are also recognised as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments, with a range of drivers operating at multiple scales, from global climate change and sea-level rise to deltaic-scale subsidence and land cover change. These drivers threaten these ecosystem services, which often provide livelihoods for the poorest communities in these regions. The imperative to maintain ecosystem services presents a development challenge: how to develop deltaic areas in ways that are sustainable and benefit all residents including the most vulnerable. Here we present an integrated framework to analyse changing ecosystem services in deltas and the implications for human well-being, focussing in particular on the provisioning ecosystem services of agriculture, inland and offshore capture fisheries, aquaculture and mangroves that directly support livelihoods. The framework is applied to the world's most populated delta, the GangesBrahmaputra-Meghna Delta within Bangladesh. The framework adopts a systemic perspective to represent the principal biophysical and socioecological components and their interaction. A range of methods are integrated within a quantitative framework, including biophysical and socio-economic modelling and analyses of governance through scenario development. The approach is iterative, with learning both within the pro...

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BackgroundThe objectives of this study were to assess the tuberculosis (TB) burden and to provide an insight into the type of circulating M. tuberculosis species in urban slums of Bangladesh. We also aimed to test the feasibility of a larger transmission study in this setting.MethodsThis cross-sectional study was conducted in an urban slum of Dhaka city. The household members were actively screened to assess the presence of TB-related signs and symptoms; cough ≥3 weeks and body mass index (BMI) <17 kg/m2. Sputum specimens from suspects were collected for acid fast bacilli (AFB) microscopy, culture and drug susceptibility testing. Genotyping of M. tuberculosis was done using spoligotyping and variable number tandem repeats of mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units typing.ResultsAmong 9,877 adult screened for pulmonary TB (PTB), 25 were positive for AFB on microscopy and/or culture and the prevalence of new PTB cases was estimated to be 253/100,000. Only one child TB case was diagnosed among 5,147 child screened. Out of 26 cases, 21(81%) had cough for several duration and 5(19%) did not present with cough at the time of screening. One multidrug resistant case was found. Fifty two percent of all TB cases had BMI <17 kg/m2 (p = <0.001). Among the 20 analyzed isolates, 13 different spoligotype patterns were identified in which 5 clusters contained 12 strains and 8 strains had unique pattern.ConclusionsThe study revealed high prevalence of TB in urban slums. Screening using low BMI can be beneficial among risk group population. It is important to conduct larger study to validate clinical variables like cough <3 weeks and low BMI to define TB suspect and also to investigate the transmission of TB in slum settings.

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